UFC on Fox 21: Condit vs Maia - Vancouver

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I'm on Alvey, and I'm a guy who thinks Casey gets underrated a bit. He is not easy to finish and he neutralizes well. Casey will gas and start having trouble.
 
I think Pettis is a bad matchup for Oliviera. Obviously Oliviera is an amazing submission artist but he goes up against a pretty good grappler here that should outstrike him and is hard to take down. For me it's gonna come down to if Pettis has worked on his bad habit of not circling when he has his back against the cage. Even if he hasn't it will be hard for Oliviera to pressure Pettis and make him move backwards. Oliviera doesn't shoot TDs, he gets them from the clinch so Pettis wont have to worry about the TDs as much when he's moving forward like when he fought Alvarez.

I think it's too soon to talk about "post USADA Pettis". His last fight was against Barboza who is a TERRIBLE match up for any guy that wants to strike from range since he does this better than pretty much anyone in the UFC. Before that he fought Alvarez who "won" by stalling the entire fight and eventually scoring a TD in the third if i remember correctly. Before that he fought RDA who is a nightmare for any range striker with his insane fearless pressure. RDA gives zero fucks about your striking, Oliviera on the other hand I think will respect Pettis a lot more.

i also think RDA was blatantly juiced to the grills when he fought pettis. pettis hit RDA with some great shots but RDA kept moving forward like the terminator. agree with your analysis.
 
They had lb up for the final two FS1 fights this past weekend but didnt offer props on those two fights between rounds if i recall correctly. Im also pretty sure no props were offered for the Means fight between rounds. Cerrone and Conor fights the only other main card fights to go past r1 offered props between rounds. I suspect that they have been losing money on lb especially on props between rounds.
u r right bro. No props for last two FS1 fights. Last UFN FS1 card also doesn't have LB except Mcgee vs Steele . I am afraid 365 won't provide lb for FS1 card anymore 。。。
 
Yea I think it's probably better to shut up until lines drop, if no decent betting people talked about the fights pre line-drop there would be no reason for them to be so damn slow with them.
 
Yeah u guys are right. I deleted my post about Alvarez/Oliviera. Will put it back up when lines are released.
 
I think Pettis is a bad matchup for Oliviera. Obviously Oliviera is an amazing submission artist but he goes up against a pretty good grappler here that should outstrike him and is hard to take down. For me it's gonna come down to if Pettis has worked on his bad habit of not circling when he has his back against the cage. Even if he hasn't it will be hard for Oliviera to pressure Pettis and make him move backwards. Oliviera doesn't shoot TDs, he gets them from the clinch so Pettis wont have to worry about the TDs as much when he's moving forward like when he fought Alvarez.

I think it's too soon to talk about "post USADA Pettis". His last fight was against Barboza who is a TERRIBLE match up for any guy that wants to strike from range since he does this better than pretty much anyone in the UFC. Before that he fought Alvarez who "won" by stalling the entire fight and eventually scoring a TD in the third if i remember correctly. Before that he fought RDA who is a nightmare for any range striker with his insane fearless pressure. RDA gives zero fucks about your striking, Oliviera on the other hand I think will respect Pettis a lot more.

Will watch olives last few fights. His td success is only 35% but those stats can be massively skewed by one fight. Maia's td success only 31% for example. From what i recall his td's have gotten better and the danger is olive will pull guard or pull off a sub like he did to jury. If pettis still loves being against the cage i can absolutely see olive jumping up and trying to cinch a guillotine. The question for me tho is his toughness. His standup is a lot better than it used to be but he melted against swanson and cerrone. Since then tho he kind of laid those doubts a little to rest against edgar and stephens for me. Must admit i thought at first he took the easy way out against holloway but obviously not horrific injury. Im sure he was backing stephens up and they dont come much more aggressive than stephens so i dont think its out of the question he can back pettis up. Stephens also has good tdd and olive managed to get him down. Interesting fight for sure defo need to watch tape particularly on olive.
 
anyone care to PM me their thoughts on the opening line for Pettis/Oliveira? i guess its frowned upon to speculate before lines are released

I honestly don't think bookies are setting lines based on us....maybe we are overvalueing our opinions... btw there are tons of youtube guys as well constantly making videos with picks that aren't bad.

If the bookies are setting lines based on my opinion...then well i LOL at that.

Having said that I still think Pettis is highly valued by the bookies and general public so I expect him to open around -200
 
I honestly don't think bookies are setting lines based on us....maybe we are overvalueing our opinions... btw there are tons of youtube guys as well constantly making videos with picks that aren't bad.

If the bookies are setting lines based on my opinion...then well i LOL at that.

Having said that I still think Pettis is highly valued by the bookies and general public so I expect him to open around -200


I love it, sherdog ego, bookies primary line metric is this thread lol
 
I honestly don't think bookies are setting lines based on us....maybe we are overvalueing our opinions... btw there are tons of youtube guys as well constantly making videos with picks that aren't bad.

If the bookies are setting lines based on my opinion...then well i LOL at that.

Having said that I still think Pettis is highly valued by the bookies and general public so I expect him to open around -200
oh i 100% agree w this but i got scolded last time i did haha
 
i agree w the notion that if bookies are looking at this thread and making the line accordingly then LOL. even though ive seen some really good analysis in here, ive seen just as much terrible analysis and fan boy-ism (myself included). we should be completely fine speculating lines.
 
i agree w the notion that if bookies are looking at this thread and making the line accordingly then LOL. even though ive seen some really good analysis in here, ive seen just as much terrible analysis and fan boy-ism (myself included). we should be completely fine speculating lines.

Yes, exactly. The only reason this thread is valuable to us is becuase we spend a lot of time reading the thread so we know who the sharps are and who the flakes are. If Nick Kalikas opens up this thread for the first time he will kinda be clueless as to who to listen to. There are so many opnions and of course even the sharp people are wrong fairly often.

Nick probably relies more on his own experience. He watches the fights and watches the money come in on each fight....he doesn't need us. Also the discussion on this board doesn't represent that much of the overall money coming in. He is more concerned about what the general public will bet rather than a handful of hardcores.

Finally, if Nick and friends are looking to 3rd parties for advice I am pretty sure they will look to qualified sources that sway public opinion such as bookie beatdown etc.

I will continue to speculate on fights before the lines are out because I believe it provides more value than not doing so. Sometimes the lines drop and I feel unsure about what to do. If there was more pre-discussion I could take better advantage of the new lines.
 
tempted to lump on condit, got a feeling his line could drop. 5 round condit hype is real!

yeah line movement talk in here won't affect the openers, I wish it did tbh, that would mean the bookies really are clueless about how to set mma lines, although they have got better lately..
 
Yes, exactly. The only reason this thread is valuable to us is becuase we spend a lot of time reading the thread so we know who the sharps are and who the flakes are. If Nick Kalikas opens up this thread for the first time he will kinda be clueless as to who to listen to. There are so many opnions and of course even the sharp people are wrong fairly often.

Nick probably relies more on his own experience. He watches the fights and watches the money come in on each fight....he doesn't need us. Also the discussion on this board doesn't represent that much of the overall money coming in. He is more concerned about what the general public will bet rather than a handful of hardcores.

Finally, if Nick and friends are looking to 3rd parties for advice I am pretty sure they will look to qualified sources that sway public opinion such as bookie beatdown etc.

I will continue to speculate on fights before the lines are out because I believe it provides more value than not doing so. Sometimes the lines drop and I feel unsure about what to do. If there was more pre-discussion I could take better advantage of the new lines.

I'm pretty sure Kalikas looks at the easily available information on the internet (he's in the same position as us in terms of acquiring information). There's not really that much.
 
I think the paranoia about talking fights pre-release of odds has been ridiculous. We represent a very small portion of funds being gambled.
 
I already locked in my bet for the Over 3.5 at -135. I think this fight goes to decision but could end in the 4th or 5th.
 
Stop with the lock nonsense. It's pure and utter hodgwash and If you've been in the game as long as I have, you'd come to the realization that when betting nothing is ever a lock. Full disclosure: My bets on huge favorites are a testament to that and that's FACT!
#FACTS

I seriously get nauseous whenever I read the word lock. Take that out of your vocabulary if you want to be taken seriously as a competent sports bettor.

- Barry

Okay, he's as close to a 'lock' as you'll get.
 
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