UFC on ESPN 5 Covington vs Lawler

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 15, 2019.

  1. BigNick100

    BigNick100 Green Belt

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    Still never a good look to get dropped by a jab. I will try to keep this short because I don't want to spend much time on a shitty match up.

    Kennedy is green. I dont really rate both guys, but skills are in Darko's favor. He offsets that with being very low volume and plodding with his feet. He doesn't have much volume at all. He has bursts of attacks and that's it. He can def crack when he uses those bursts and carries power.

    Kennedy has reach and his striking is green, but he can use his pity patter punches and kicks here to keep Darko at bay. He has a big reach advantage as well. And with that Darko will have to cover more distance when he bursts. He could be missing at air a good bit here if Kennedy is just keeping his distance. Darko's slow plodding style will make it hard for him to walk down Kennedy as well.

    Then you got others saying Darko can land td's. But how often has Darko shot a take down in open field? He hasn't in the UFC. And only once in one of his past fights years ago I saw. Shooting in open space isn't really his thing. it could happen here but then you banking on him doing something he has rarely shown. Yes he got Clark down, but it was Clark who engaged in the clinch, with Darko reversing against the fence and then ducking low to pick up Clark and slam him.

    So if that was to be the case in the Kennedy fight, he would need to close distance and clinch up Kennedy (hard with his style) or have Kennedy engage in the clinch which I doubt he does.

    Darko could use one of his bursts and get Kennedy to back up to the fence and then try to duck down for a td. But just so many what if's. Darko is facing someone with the longest reach he has faced, it may take him a while to adjust. I think it mostly plays out on the feet with Kennedy staying on the outside with his pitty punches and kicking forearm of Darko but scoring points in a low volume affair. Darko landing a bomb wouldn't surprise me either.

    You also got a small sample size of Darko at 205. Only his quick win of Kimball which didn't show much and the Clark fight do you have to go on.

    One thing for sure is it's a shit fight I don't want my money on.
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
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  2. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Kenedy Decision, imo, is the better hedge.
     
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  3. Martialbeef

    Martialbeef Purple Belt

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    I never bet on decisions in a fight. Every fight that has ever happened I believe is 60/40 or more to be stopped.

    Wmma probably more 51/49 to be fair...
     
  4. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Interesting.
    In this single instance though, in a bubble, I don't think Kenedy can put himself in a spot to finish Stosic.
     
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  5. Card

    Card Silver Belt

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  6. ApplesVild

    ApplesVild Black Belt

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    Is Kenndy kind of pillow fisted? He doesn't seem to do a lot of damage or hurt people.

    I think Darko either bangs with him 'Come! Come!' Or gets the take down and pounds his face in
     
  7. BaruchSpinoza

    BaruchSpinoza Optical lens grinder

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    The jab caught him mid-bounce and put him on his ass. It was on the chin and definitely hurt him, but it's not like he was almost out.

    I agree that we haven't exactly seen Stosic quickly close distance. But, despite his ridiculous reach, Kennedy isn't very good at managing range. He is also very hittable and seems entirely unable to execute a game plan. I think there are two main ways the fight could get to the clinch. One would be Stosic landing on Kennedy and then moving in to engage. He did this at least once against Clark. The other is Kennedy throwing a knee to the body and ending up too close. Paul Craig got into the clinch with him at least twice this way (the first time being only like 30 seconds into the first round).

    I agree. Outpointing a gassed Stosic seems to be Kennedy's most likely path to victory. Honestly the only way I see him finishing is landing a flush high kick. But Stosic is pretty good at covering up so that doesn't seem particularly likely...
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
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  8. Rickson

    Rickson LOL @ Askren & his fans who thought he was elite

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    I’m staying away. Not enough data. Too many questions. Darko should win, yeah. Should. I can’t trust a low volume, bad cardio fighter who was dropped by a jab though. That’s too many red flags.

    Watch Kennedy turn into Anderson Silva tomorrow and kill Darko with a flying knee lol.
     
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  9. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Suddenly being way way better, or winning some Sandhagen/Lineker-esque decision are his paths, I agree. I will be waiting with the live bet if things go bad to not only save my 2.5u on Stosic ML but also win at least 50u on the outcome ;)
     
  10. Rickson

    Rickson LOL @ Askren & his fans who thought he was elite

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    The over could be interesting since both guys are not really pushing the action.
     
  11. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Can't blame you. Stosic could, feasibly, end this on any one of his 3 strikes per round though.
     
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  12. theTKDguy

    theTKDguy Platinum Native

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    Likely. It's a coin toss between robbie by murder and colby by blanketing.
     
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  13. Rickson

    Rickson LOL @ Askren & his fans who thought he was elite

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    Never mind they set the over at 2.5 rounds lol. 1.5 would have been interesting. 2.5 is risky.
     
  14. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Most books are O/U1.5...
     
  15. ApplesVild

    ApplesVild Black Belt

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    Kenndy isn't going to KO anyone
     
  16. matthew55

    matthew55 White Belt

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    longshot parlay Borello itd +460 Espinosa itd +385 Netto Silva itd +590
    25 to win 4,660 lol feelin it doe!
     
  17. ApplesVild

    ApplesVild Black Belt

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    Seen a lot people talking about how Maia beat Colby up on the feet in round one but if you go back and watch it he really didn't. He landed some shots but it's not like Colby was getting wobbled or running away for safety. Colby got the better of Maia and won the round...

    Colby's striking isn't good, but with the threat of the takedown and the clinch it works for him, he has that extra freedom to just swing, kind of like Maia, because he wants to get close to you or back you up. So, you can either stand your ground and allow him to close the distance or you can back up and quickly find your back against the cage.

    I guess the defence to this is someone who can hold their ground and swing back with enough venom that they actually back Colby off, if the striking coming back at him gets to dangerous he will have to either back up or use his defence... And he has no defence, so that is a recipe for getting himself knocked out... The other option is if someone can counter punch going backwards and angle off at the right time, you back up while countering Colbys flailing punches and before you reach the cage you exit on an angle. This is something I expected to see from RDA to some degree, but instead he just backed up in straight lines right to the cage and back into the clich over and over.

    Lawler has a chance of pulling off option A, if he stands his ground, fires back with hard strikes and either backs Colby up before a shot comes - or if can hurt him and show him a few times early that he can defende the take down and punish him for it, it would leave Colby with less options.
     
  18. theTKDguy

    theTKDguy Platinum Native

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    Robbie wins in rd1 +900 what? Give me some

    Robbie is throwing the kitchen sink in rd1 he either kills colby or gasses and gets raped
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
  19. ill800

    ill800 Founder of Eugenics Society of Gambling

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    Once I again I make a mistake bet during openers

    I thought Lauren Murphy was Lauren mueller

    LOL

    smh

    I didn’t think I’d be senile at this age
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
  20. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Purple Belt

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    If it makes you feel better, I made the same mistake. "Romera Borella -140 against Mueller? Eh, sounds about right, I guess".

    Days later..."Oh shit, that's the mediocre former drug addict Lauren MURPHY, not Mueller? And now the line is -165? Goddamn it..."
     

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