Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 15, 2019.
Covington Decision - 2u for 2.2u
Millertime ML - 5u for 3.01u
Millertime Sub - 0.5u for 1.25u
Shevchenko ML - 3u for 2.5u
Shevchenko Decision - 1.5u for 1.88u
Stosic ML - 4u for 3.39u
Schnell ML - 2.5u for 2.63u
Schnell Submission - 0.5u for 2.5u
Giles Decision - 0.5u for 1.67u
Giles-GM3 Over 1.5 Rounds - 2.5u for 1.64u
Gall ML - 3u for 3.3u
Gall Submission - 0.5u for 1.05u
C.Silva Round 1 or 2 - 0.49u for 0.37u
Start Round 2: Colb-Lawl + Shev-Pudi + Sch-Esp + Bor-Mur + Gold-Grang - 1.25u for 1.22u
Stosic-sized blemish on an otherwise beauty of a night. Hope you all made out winners.
1u Lawler ML +205 to win 2.05u
0.1u Lawler R1 +1000 to win 1u
1.4u Miller ML -140 to win 1u
0.2u Guida (SC=NA) +507 to win 1.14u
0.5u J Silva ML +248 to win 1.24u
0.5u J Silva (SC=NA) +320 to win 1.6u
3.45u Stosic ML -115 to win 3u
0.28u Stosic (SC=NA) -140 to win 0.2u
0.1u Stosic R1 +350 to win 0.35u
0.05u Stosic - Nzechukwu draw +8500 to win 4.25u
1u Gall ML +107 to win 1.07u
0.1u Gall KO/TKO/DQ +1045 to win 1.045u
1.23u Espinosa ML -123 to win 1u
0.1u Pudilova ITD +955 to win 0.955u
5.2u Romero Borella ML -130 to win 4u
0.2u Romero Borella ITD +500 to win 1u
0.2u C Silva KO/TKO/DQ +542 to win 1.084u
0.5u Granger +140 to win 0.7u
My capping has been off lately. I need to concentrate more on hedge- and live-betting probably, cause that's what has been saving me lately.
Edit- Got Granger at +130, not +125.
Lost 0.6u betting on Pudilova after round 1 at +170, for a +2.95u card.
It's nice to get a solid win after a series of losing cards, and I don't regret any of my plays, but I'm a little annoyed at my relative amounts. I was slightly more confident on Granger at much better odds than I was on Touahri, but I ended up putting similar amounts down on both.
Should have either upped my Granger action to 3.5-4u, or lowered my Touahri action to 1.5u or less. I was leery of betting more on low-level WMMA, but the value was incredible.
It might seem small, but an extra unit and a half here and there adds up.
Not going to beat myself up too much about the Covington amount, but I had a very hard read there.
2.15u good night of fights, my only real disappointment was Stosic which was a really winnable fight even with zero IQ. the fact he thought he still won it was a bit laughable.
see you next week
Up about 4U listed
Sprinkled some on miller, miller sub, Lawler rd 1, colby decision
Have just about recovered from Austrian Wonderboi/ gdr/simon parlaygate now
Down just shy of 1u, pretty shit card with some fairly wacky stuff, judges and refs were pretty awful. Came close in a lot of spots only for unexpected finishes or dubious officiating to get in the way. Holtz R3 or Dec, Murphy Dec, had Meer Dec live at great odds too which almost hit. Dropped 0.5u Kennedy Dec after R1 to cover my Stosic bet fortunately. Main regret not hitting Murphy harder, capped her at like -150 but was really conservative there.
Had a decent week aside from that so can't complain, on to the next one.
Avoided disaster thankfully with the u1.5rd saver. I look forward to doing the same the next time Silva fights. I added a bit on Jim Miller when his odds drifted slightly before the off. -£207 on the night.
LOL at Holtzman ITD at + money after round 1
Thanks, Giles, you jobber lmao
Jim Miller was eaaaasy. Mickey Gall, see you soon, boiii.
Awesome night. Livebetting was decent, but i am more interested in the prebetting. Imagine if Darko Stosic had won on points. It actually was not that bad of a bet in hindsight. If only he didnt hit those nuts. I knew he would win round 1 and hoped he would be able to steal 1 more using takedowns. He did the same against a former opponent twice.
Total loss/profit: +3.36u
With a risk of 4.66u,i am happy with the result.
Mara Borella is a fraud... Almost turned $1.50 into $1000... -_-
i lost like 160$ damnit.
I gotta stop going full degen betting every single fight.
Giles and Borella cost me the most.
Originally i had only 2 bets: Nasrat straight & jim miller straight.
Lesson learned............. (for now)
Haven't watched fights yet, but overall positive, up a bit over 2 Units.
Edit : grammar
+ 730$ not that bad for a card i was not confident at all. Hope everyone did good $$$$.
Sometimes less is more. Didn't make anywhere near as many bets as usual, but got most of my bigger bets correct and ended up with a respectable profit of 7.74 units.
UFC on ESPN 5 Results Risk $2,275.00
Robbie Lawler (+215) vs Colby Covington $100.00 for $215.00= -$100.00
Robbie Lawler wins by TKO/KO (+313) $75.00 for $234.75= -$75.00
Robbie Lawler wins in round 1 (+1000) $25.00 for $250.00= -$25.00
Live In-Play Robbie Lawler (+650) vs Colby Covington $100.00 for $650.00= -$100.00
Jim Miller (-140) vs Clay Guida $350.00 for $250.00= $250.00
Jim Miller wins by submission (+250) $40.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Nasrat Haqparast/Jaoquim Silva Under 2½ (+152) $100.00 for $152.00= $152.00
Trevin Giles (-160) vs Gerald Meerschaert $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00
Scott Holtzman/Dong Hyun Ma Over 2½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00= -$150.00
Kennedy Nzechukwu (+100) vs Darko Stosic $100.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Live In-Play Kennedy Nzechukwu (+170) vs Darko Stosic $100.00 or $170.00= $170.00
Salim Touahri/Mickey Gall Under 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00= -$135.00
Antonina Shevchenko (-130) vs Lucie Pudilova $260.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Antonina Shevchenko (-140) vs Lucie Pudilova $350.00 for $250.00= $250.00
Matt Schnell/Jordan Espinosa Over 2½ (-180) $180.00 for $100.00= -$180.00
Lauren Murphy (+170) vs Mara Romero Borella $100.00 for $170.00= $170.00
Claudio Silva/Cole Williams Under 1½ (+107) $100.00 for $107.00= $107.00
Hannah Goldy/Miranda Granger Over 2½ Rounds (-200) $400.00 for $200.00= $200.00
Total Profit= $774.00
So if I had bet with my brain rather than just betting Robbie because I'm a fan.
I watched tape for Nasrat, Holtzman, Meerschaert, Miller and Lawler fights, and they were all good picks. I had said all week that Lawler gas a path but I believe Colby would do basically just what he did.
My main downfall seems to be listening to mma podcasts, I'm a fan of a few of a few of them but when I've watched tape and and made my picks a mixture of these guys and reading stuff on here has me second guessing and making stupid live bets.
Already have some pre-bets and some parlays that will hopefully complete with the DC/Stipe card, I might take a quick look at few of the interesting fights for next week but play it small.
Well, at least my pre-betting picks are easy to tally up: 0/2 = –$210
On the bright side: it's an improvement from last week, when I went 0/3. If I only make one bet on the next card I can expect to do even better!
Good to see that a lot of the forum had a + night!
+$362. Mehhhh, whatever I'll take it, hated this card for betting as well as the next one. Didn't watch live so no LBs, just caught the replay and it was a decent card, lots of fighters going unconscious. Shev/Pud o2.5 at -400 and Stosic were the bad bets, costing most of my profit.
I didn't think Stosic was too bad of bet, Kennedy was bad in all the ways I expected, and without a 2 point deduction Stosic takes every round.
I bet Stsoic pretty big, motivated by basically just very heavily fading Kennedy. In retrospect I feel the odds were probably quite correct. Stosic deserved to be a small favourite because of how terrible Kennedy is, but with the low output and cardio problems I don't think (in retrospect) that there was much value there. We really don't know if he would have had the gas to take round three without the ball-kicking breaks...
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