UFC on ESPN 5 Covington vs Lawler Official Bets

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 15, 2019.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    post 'em
     
  2. Rickson

    Rickson LOL @ Askren & his fans who thought he was elite

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    3.16u on Jim Miller to beat Diego Sanchez' retarded step brother.

    D_mf2bPUYAAkPfP.jpg
     
  3. LeskoJohnson

    LeskoJohnson White Belt

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    0.8u - Darko Stosic @-138
    0.5u - Matt Schnell @+140
    0.4u - Mickey Gall @+110
    0.3u - Pudilova @+150
    0.35u - Miranda Granger @+162

    Edit: changed a bunch of my bets for this card.
     
    Last edited: Jul 29, 2019
  4. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Purple Belt

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    1u Lawler +200
    0.4u Lawler KO +333
    0.5u Colby Dec +130

    0.5u Guida Dec +210

    3u Big Shev -160
    0.5u Big Shev Dec +115
    2u Over 2.5 + Zoila (Combate) -167

    2.5u Haqparast -208

    1u Toahari +147

    0.1u Holtzman R3 Sub +3300
    0.25u Holtzman R3 KO +1100
    1u Holtzman Dec +175
    Freeroll to win 1.1u on Ma

    1u Giles -137

    2u Stosic -125

    1u Murphy +145
    0.5u Murphy Dec +240

    1u Silva Sub -120
    0.25u Silva KO +2500

    0.5u Granger +175
    2u Granger-Goldy FGTD -188

    Freeroll to win 0.65u on Espinosa
     
    Last edited: Aug 2, 2019
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  5. ApplesVild

    ApplesVild Brown Belt

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    Stosic - 1 unit at 1.72

    Jim Miller - 1 unit 1.50

    Lawler - 2 units at 2.87 (My biggest bet but I believe Lawler loses, just a fan so not betting against him)

    Salim - 1 unit at 2.10

    Nasrat + Holtzman - 1 unit

    Meerschaert - 1 unit at 2.30
     
  6. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Blue Belt

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    Nasrat 3u -250
    Hotsauce 3U -275
    Science in the Water Lawler 1U +200

    Fuck this card
     
  7. KBE6EKCTAH_CCP

    KBE6EKCTAH_CCP Québecstan S S R

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    God damn it I am on the fence on Colby / Lawler.

    I think there is a good chance that Lawler uppercuts the shit out of Colby coming in (Colby sets up his TD entries with shitty 1-2-1-2 but I expect Lawler to see right through that). Also, I don't see why the Lawler that showed up for Askren would not show up this time. It's a recent fight and he did not take any damage in it.

    On the other hand I really do see the possibility of Colby gassing Lawler and getting a UD.
     
  8. Broe.

    Broe. Blue Belt

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    400$ holtzman x 1.4

    150$ pudilova x 2.5

    300$ Haqparast x 1.5
     
  9. KBE6EKCTAH_CCP

    KBE6EKCTAH_CCP Québecstan S S R

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    ok fuck it I just put 5€ on Covington. Even if Lawler clips him, I see Covington hiding his face in Lawler's crouch for recovery. I also don't see Lawler KO'ing Colby with 1 punch, tbh, so yeah that's what I think is the worst that will happen to Colby.

    I honestly feel like it's shitty value at -250 but I just really feel deep down inside that Covington takes this.

    And if he doesn't, it will likely be by devastating fashion, which will be a consolation.

    Boom, just hedged reality, will be happy either way.
     
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  10. Monster Meat

    Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Colby by dec will probably be something like +120 that’s probably how I will play it since I do agree the -250 is way too steep
     
  11. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Purple Belt

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    Covington Decision - 2u for 2.2u (+110)

    Millertime ML - 5u for 3.01u (-166)
    Millertime Sub - 0.5u for 1.25u (+250)

    Shevchenko ML - 3u for 2.5u (-120)
    Shevchenko Decision - 1.5u for 1.88u (+125)

    Stosic ML - 4u for 3.39u (-120)

    Schnell ML - 2.5u for 2.63u (+105)
    Schnell Submission - 0.5u for 2.5u (+500)

    Giles Decision - 0.5u for 1.67u (+333)
    Giles-GM3 Over 1.5 Rounds - 2.5u for 1.64u (-152)

    Gall ML - 3u for 3.3u (+102)
    Gall Submission - 0.5u for 1.05u

    C.Silva Round 1 or 2 - 0.49u for 0.37u (-133)

    Start Round 2: Colb-Lawl + Shev-Pudi + Sch-Esp + Bor-Mur + Gold-Grang - 1.25u for 1.22u
     
    Last edited: Aug 3, 2019
  12. 1pcetf

    1pcetf White Belt

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    My picks:

    0.5u Guida +165
    0.5u Schnell +150
    0.25u Silva +215

    I would bet Guida with a higher stake but Miller fighting at home will probably bring him the W if it's a very close fight which could be easily the case.
    Schnell was a no-brainer at those opening odds. I give him 55-60% to win.
    And Silva is a value pick from my point of view. I'm not sold on the German dude. He had a great fight at home but i think he probably had one of those career best performances in there. Silva is a really great allrounder and has all the tools to win it. +215 is stupid. Cap him around +110 or +120 but only because he tends to be very negative and lazy with his output sometimes. Otherwise it's a pick em' fight.
     
  13. HeadsUpPoker

    HeadsUpPoker Orange Belt

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    1u on Darko Stosic at 1.77 to profit 0.77u
    1u on Lauren Murphy at 2.45 to profit 1.45u
    0.5u on Lauren Murphy at 2.60 to profit 0.8u
    1u on Matt Scnell at 2.30 to profit 1.30u
     
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  14. Monster Meat

    Monster Meat Purple Belt

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    Couple arbs (could only get a certain amount down due to limits)
    Bet stars
    Holtz/Kim o 2.5 +100 $250/$250
    Hard rock
    Holtz/Kim u 2.5 +140 $208/$291.20

    Fan duel
    Holtz/Kim o 2.5 -110 $110/$100
    Hard rock
    Holtz/Kim u 2.5 +140 $87.50/$122.50

    Bet stars
    Hannah Goldy -150 $373/$249.91
    Points-bet
    Granger +158 $241/$380.78

    $200/$240
    Covington by dec +120

    $230/$100
    Nasrat haqparist -230
     
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  15. Mbison

    Mbison White Belt

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    Granger (+110) $500
    Stosic (-135) $150
    Touahri (-135) $300
    ;)
     
  16. Bastaille

    Bastaille White Belt

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    Colvington 1k to win 440$
    Colvington dec 200$ to win 220$

    Stosic 350$ To win 250$

    Schnell 350$ to win 420$
     
  17. Doc R

    Doc R Orange Belt

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    Lawler 3U +180
    Guida 1U +120
    Granger 1U +100
    Touhari 1U -115

    Lawler R1 +1000

    I like covington but I cant forget the Angle Slam on Askren
     
  18. Sadistics

    Sadistics Purple Belt

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    Lawler NSC -143 $215
    Lawler +5.5 -155 $155
    Covington/Lawler GTD -115 $400

    Haqparast -211 $700

    Giles/Meerschaert O1.5 -147 $300

    Stosic -120 $750
    Nzechukwu DEC +400 $50

    Touhari +167 $150

    Shevchenko/Pudilova O2.5 -400 $750

    Holtzman -210 $300
    Holtzman DEC +175 $150

    Granger +160 $500

    Holtzman (-210) + Cyborg (-600) -138 $700

    Going back and forth between $500 and $700 units, but not really using units, basically operating with 3500 as my max bet and betting within that for now. Arbed out of most of my Salim action after tape. Still considering Miller but I need closer to -120.
     
  19. wessnipes

    wessnipes White Belt

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    Cole Williams:
    £445 win @ 4.1 (pre missing weight)
    £400 win by ko @10.0
    £150 win by finish @8.0
    £452 u1.5rds @2.01

    For me Silva is very poor on the feet and with the ko odds in this range, I'm going in hard. He's great on the ground of course, hence the u1.5rds, which could work out as some cover if he gets a takedown. Wish I hadn't put so much on the moneyline as the value is certainly on the ko. Admittedly I've little knowledge on Williams, but enough on Silva, and I don't think you need to be much of a striker to have a decent ko chance. Others would have finished him before this if they hadn't followed him to the ground after stunning him badly, so I'm taking my shot here, lets see how it pans out.
     
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  20. Invictis

    Invictis Purple Belt

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    Probably the smallest card of the year for me.

    2u Guida @ +150
    2u Lawler @ +180

    And that's it. BoL folks.
     
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