Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jul 15, 2019.
3.16u on Jim Miller to beat Diego Sanchez' retarded step brother.
0.8u - Darko Stosic @-138
0.5u - Matt Schnell @+140
0.4u - Mickey Gall @+110
0.3u - Pudilova @+150
0.35u - Miranda Granger @+162
Edit: changed a bunch of my bets for this card.
1u Lawler +200
0.4u Lawler KO +333
0.5u Colby Dec +130
0.5u Guida Dec +210
3u Big Shev -160
0.5u Big Shev Dec +115
2u Over 2.5 + Zoila (Combate) -167
2.5u Haqparast -208
1u Toahari +147
0.1u Holtzman R3 Sub +3300
0.25u Holtzman R3 KO +1100
1u Holtzman Dec +175
Freeroll to win 1.1u on Ma
1u Giles -137
2u Stosic -125
1u Murphy +145
0.5u Murphy Dec +240
1u Silva Sub -120
0.25u Silva KO +2500
0.5u Granger +175
2u Granger-Goldy FGTD -188
Freeroll to win 0.65u on Espinosa
Stosic - 1 unit at 1.72
Jim Miller - 1 unit 1.50
Lawler - 2 units at 2.87 (My biggest bet but I believe Lawler loses, just a fan so not betting against him)
Salim - 1 unit at 2.10
Nasrat + Holtzman - 1 unit
Meerschaert - 1 unit at 2.30
Nasrat 3u -250
Hotsauce 3U -275
Science in the Water Lawler 1U +200
Fuck this card
God damn it I am on the fence on Colby / Lawler.
I think there is a good chance that Lawler uppercuts the shit out of Colby coming in (Colby sets up his TD entries with shitty 1-2-1-2 but I expect Lawler to see right through that). Also, I don't see why the Lawler that showed up for Askren would not show up this time. It's a recent fight and he did not take any damage in it.
On the other hand I really do see the possibility of Colby gassing Lawler and getting a UD.
400$ holtzman x 1.4
150$ pudilova x 2.5
300$ Haqparast x 1.5
ok fuck it I just put 5€ on Covington. Even if Lawler clips him, I see Covington hiding his face in Lawler's crouch for recovery. I also don't see Lawler KO'ing Colby with 1 punch, tbh, so yeah that's what I think is the worst that will happen to Colby.
I honestly feel like it's shitty value at -250 but I just really feel deep down inside that Covington takes this.
And if he doesn't, it will likely be by devastating fashion, which will be a consolation.
Boom, just hedged reality, will be happy either way.
Colby by dec will probably be something like +120 that’s probably how I will play it since I do agree the -250 is way too steep
Covington Decision - 2u for 2.2u (+110)
Millertime ML - 5u for 3.01u (-166)
Millertime Sub - 0.5u for 1.25u (+250)
Shevchenko ML - 3u for 2.5u (-120)
Shevchenko Decision - 1.5u for 1.88u (+125)
Stosic ML - 4u for 3.39u (-120)
Schnell ML - 2.5u for 2.63u (+105)
Schnell Submission - 0.5u for 2.5u (+500)
Giles Decision - 0.5u for 1.67u (+333)
Giles-GM3 Over 1.5 Rounds - 2.5u for 1.64u (-152)
Gall ML - 3u for 3.3u (+102)
Gall Submission - 0.5u for 1.05u
C.Silva Round 1 or 2 - 0.49u for 0.37u (-133)
Start Round 2: Colb-Lawl + Shev-Pudi + Sch-Esp + Bor-Mur + Gold-Grang - 1.25u for 1.22u
0.5u Guida +165
0.5u Schnell +150
0.25u Silva +215
I would bet Guida with a higher stake but Miller fighting at home will probably bring him the W if it's a very close fight which could be easily the case.
Schnell was a no-brainer at those opening odds. I give him 55-60% to win.
And Silva is a value pick from my point of view. I'm not sold on the German dude. He had a great fight at home but i think he probably had one of those career best performances in there. Silva is a really great allrounder and has all the tools to win it. +215 is stupid. Cap him around +110 or +120 but only because he tends to be very negative and lazy with his output sometimes. Otherwise it's a pick em' fight.
1u on Darko Stosic at 1.77 to profit 0.77u
1u on Lauren Murphy at 2.45 to profit 1.45u
0.5u on Lauren Murphy at 2.60 to profit 0.8u
1u on Matt Scnell at 2.30 to profit 1.30u
Couple arbs (could only get a certain amount down due to limits)
Holtz/Kim o 2.5 +100 $250/$250
Holtz/Kim u 2.5 +140 $208/$291.20
Holtz/Kim o 2.5 -110 $110/$100
Holtz/Kim u 2.5 +140 $87.50/$122.50
Hannah Goldy -150 $373/$249.91
Granger +158 $241/$380.78
Covington by dec +120
Nasrat haqparist -230
Granger (+110) $500
Stosic (-135) $150
Touahri (-135) $300
Colvington 1k to win 440$
Colvington dec 200$ to win 220$
Stosic 350$ To win 250$
Schnell 350$ to win 420$
Lawler 3U +180
Guida 1U +120
Granger 1U +100
Touhari 1U -115
Lawler R1 +1000
I like covington but I cant forget the Angle Slam on Askren
Lawler NSC -143 $215
Lawler +5.5 -155 $155
Covington/Lawler GTD -115 $400
Haqparast -211 $700
Giles/Meerschaert O1.5 -147 $300
Stosic -120 $750
Nzechukwu DEC +400 $50
Touhari +167 $150
Shevchenko/Pudilova O2.5 -400 $750
Holtzman -210 $300
Holtzman DEC +175 $150
Granger +160 $500
Holtzman (-210) + Cyborg (-600) -138 $700
Going back and forth between $500 and $700 units, but not really using units, basically operating with 3500 as my max bet and betting within that for now. Arbed out of most of my Salim action after tape. Still considering Miller but I need closer to -120.
£445 win @ 4.1 (pre missing weight)
£400 win by ko @10.0
£150 win by finish @8.0
£452 u1.5rds @2.01
For me Silva is very poor on the feet and with the ko odds in this range, I'm going in hard. He's great on the ground of course, hence the u1.5rds, which could work out as some cover if he gets a takedown. Wish I hadn't put so much on the moneyline as the value is certainly on the ko. Admittedly I've little knowledge on Williams, but enough on Silva, and I don't think you need to be much of a striker to have a decent ko chance. Others would have finished him before this if they hadn't followed him to the ground after stunning him badly, so I'm taking my shot here, lets see how it pans out.
Probably the smallest card of the year for me.
2u Guida @ +150
2u Lawler @ +180
And that's it. BoL folks.
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