UFC on ESPN+ 34 Overeem vs Harris Official Bets

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I went parlay-heavy for this event.

I don't recommend all of my single bets. I just see spots where certain guys are underdogs but should be slight favorites, or where there are props for fighters that are way off.
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9.25u profit.

- I wasted a lot of profit by hedging on Angela Hill pre-fight and by live-betting her, as I thought she won the fight.
- I randomly bet Rivera for no reason other than his big dog odds.
- I thought Elkins won, so I'm not mad about the ML bet and live bet.
- I should've had Gadelha ML in my long shot parlay, instead of her -3.5 line. I just assumed she'd get an easy TD.
 
3u Vera +165 LOSE
1u Vera ITD +500 LOSE
1/2u Hill +190 LOSE
1u LB Hill +350 LOSE
1u Baeza -179 WIN
1u Barboza -130 LOSE
I LB Reem 5u @ -160 to chase my losses WIN

more to come.

-4u

-4u Shit refs taught me to to always hedge on the fighter the UFC is pushing or the country they’re trying to push.

absolutely number one bullshit judging all night.

Vera, Barboza and Hill all should’ve won.
 
Overeem/Harris O1.5 -145 $800

Barboza -125 $300

Jotko -110 $275
Jotko/Anders O2.5 -167 $750

Yadong -125 $312.50

Elkins +122 $500

Casey KO +862 $100

Mayes/Nascimento O1.5 -113 $400

I dropped the ball, just too many fights to tape this week and I missed out on some good lines. Would've loved Gadelha and Yadong at their earlier lines for a big stake. Smallest card in forever, here's hoping for good livebet.

+$526. Feels like a miracle to come out in profit. That main event should've been stopped so many times, got away with one there on the over. Barboza got straight robbed and may be getting cut for it.
 
I found my lost balls and winning big bet. Thank you Jason Herzog for not stopping the fight, I think Miguel Baeza is almost out on his feet. So much luck involving betting mma, another ref in the cautious side could stop the fight.




nope! I didn't found my balls, I was down 1.4k and chasing it. Twenty years of gambling experience and I am still chasing lost.

-$930 tonite. I only won 3 fights out 11, I got Barboza and Hill too. If a ref jump the gun and give Matt Brown the stand up tko win, I would be in deep shit. it would be $6124 lost for the night. No more big bet, as soon as you can not breath, you're betting way too big. I got to discipline myself to $500 max per fight. I need the money but not the big money, just too greedy. When the fight goes to decision, it seem it is pure gambling, I hate pure gambling.
 
£200 Overeem +149 to win +£298
£200 Barboza -120 to win £166 -£200
£50 Elkin +100 to win £50 -£50
£50 Nascimento +100 to win +£50
£80 Jotko / Anders to go the distance -133 to win +£60
£50 Jotko decision +140 to win +£70

Added £50 and then another £50, 20 seconds into the fight on Jotko +100 to win +£100

I'm glad I got talked out the Hill bet as that would have been 3 bad decisions bet losses in one night. I also had a couple of free bet offers on a Parlay on Jotko, Claudia, and Barboza so I would have made an extra £586 had Barboza got the nod. However, after seeing Reem come back from the dead I'm just happy I made a profit honestly.

Total:
+£328

I think we should all have learned now that we need to hedge fights if they go to a decision. I was actually going to bet Claudia when the fight was over at 220 even though I thought she lost just because I was sure it was going to be a texas call but couldn't bring myself to use that logic to bet.


 
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Almost -4u today. 6u livebet on Reem after first round saved me from a really bad night. Honestly though I should have been profit today if Hill and barboza didn't get robbed, frustrating event. Hopefully things turn around next time.
 
Tied for 5th in the 15 dollar DK tourney, so I won a lot of units. Go Chinese-sympathetic-judges, GO!
 
added:
2u Overeem KO/TKO 3,70
1,4u Harris R1 or R2 2,60
2u Chikadze 1,43
2u Barboza 1,78
2u Vera/Song starts R2 1,28

and bought out off my Elkins bet, I am freerolling Landwehr now for 0,2u or so

2u Ferreira 2,05
2u Chikadze 1,43

2u Elkins 2,05 - freerolled Landwehr for 0,2u
2u Brown 2,75
2u Brown/Baeza starts R2 1,50
2u Vera 2,50
2u Vera/Yadong starts R2 1,28
2u Anders 2,20
2u Barboza 1,78

2u Overeem 2,45
2u Overeem KO/TKO 3,70

1,4u Harris R1 or R2 2,60

Another successful night for me, although it totally came down to the Reem in the end.
I definitly got a unlucky with the judges.

my good:
- I showed discipline and didn't bet EVERY fight, I would have picked Casey, Gadelha and Holland but I am happy I didn't. Especially when I was down but didn't chase with Gadelha
- I changed to Landwehr as I didn't feel Elkins was the right side
- Vera was a great bet, Barboza was also worth the bet

my neutral:
- Brown bet for 2,75 was alright, I would have gone heavy on Baeza after R1, unfortunately pinnacle didn't allow me to live bet, otherwise I would have saved me some money there

my bad:
- the Anders bet. What was I thinking with that. It's the only bet I regret making, and I could have just stopped it as I did with my Elkins bet, odds would have allowed it.

hope you all had a great night!
3 profitable events in a row, I can't wait for the next one!
 
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Miguel Baeza -147 $147
Matt Brown/Miguel Baeza Under 1½ +117 $50
Brown wins by submission +1375 $15

Nate Landwehr +112 $50

Rodrigo Nascimento -105 $105
Nascimento wins by submission +170 $20

Rivera Dec $10
Rivera R1 $10

Good event for u
 
Ran out of time but finally got my Internet going so I can watch the card. Didn't find as much as I wanted to but we will see where it goes.

I got a little carried away live betting. Landwehr had me in profit but the judges made sure that didn't last.


●Barboza .75u for .5u
I think he can keep the fight at range

●Mayes 2u for 1.75u
Seems like a pretty rounded prospect

●Giga + Baezaa 1u for 1u

●Giga +Yadong .75u for .75u

●Yadong NSC+ Barboza NSC 1u for 2u
What a w3ird night. Guess those Florida judges were out partying with Peterson before the fights.

●Barboza .75u
Seemed like he had that on strikes but I guess he got back up alot

●Mayes 2u
Bad read here. Nascimentos size is a big part of his grappling. Sneaky baiting Mayes into a clinch to get the TD tough.

●Giga + Baezaa 1u for 1u

●Giga +Yadong .75u for .75u

●Yadong NSC+ Barboza NSC
1u PUSH
for 2u

Prebets
-1u
Live and prebet total
-2u
(Landwehr +5u Live
Overeem +2u late play
Barboza -3u added live
Anders -2.5u live, dumb play there
Hill -2.5u no regret there Overkill had value and looked good.)

Probably focusing more on prebets and nsc/handicap plays moving forward. Losing money sucks but I hate watching someone lose a fight they won.


 
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Overeem KO/TKO +230 for $10-WIN
Overeem ML +125 for $20-WIN
Harris rd 2 +492 for $5-LOSS
Hill ML +210 for $20-LOSS
Hill dec +290 for $20-LOSS
Ige +110 for $20 (bad price, can get +135 now)-WIN
Ige dec +385 for $20 (this line is insane imo)-WIN
Ige/Barboza o2.5 -137 to win $20-WIN
Jotko ML -140 to win $20-WIN
Jotko rd 3 +1800 for $5-LOSS
Anders rd 1 +525 for $5-LOSS
Vera sub +460 for $5-LOSS
Brown/Baeza does NOT go distance -240 to win $20-WIN
Hernandez dec +240 for $20-LOSS
Chikadze KO/TKO +155 for $20-LOSS
Borella dec +175 for $15-LOSS
Landwehr +107 for $20-WIN
Landwehr dec +276 for $20-WIN
Nascimento KO/TKO +1045 for $1-LOSS
Fights to go distance:
over 6.5 +245 for $20-LOSS
over 7.5 +625 for $10-LOSS
over 8.5 +2495 for $5-LOSS
over 9.5 +12900 for $5-LOSS

Live bets:
Harris +150 after rd 1, dumb. Thought both were tired and he'd clip 'Reem again-LOSS
Hill +350 maybe should have won-LOSS
Ige +220 probably should lost ha ha-WIN
Jotko -105-WIN
Anders bought out Jotko live bet-LOSS
Landwehr -120-WIN
Vera +220 and +180, maybe should have won these-LOSS



Good night overall, the Ige wins were a gift, but I probably should have gotten all those wins with Hill which were at even better odds.

I'm especially proud of that breakdown on Landwehr/Elkins. The result could have gone either way, but I laid out literally word for word what would happen in the fight and why Landwehr dec had such good value. The only 2 bets I really feel dumb about and that I totally whiffed on were Fluffy decision (he was just steamrolled) and my live bet of Walt after rd 1. Otherwise I think I was mostly on point, even on the bets that lost. Good profit on the night, can't complain!
 
2-8, +93. Had Overeem or Gadelha lost I would have been cooked. Had Barboza “won” I would have had a tremendous night. Expected more out of Anders. Thought he would find Jotko’s chin that remains untucked and perhaps be able to finish a takedown up the against the cage. Vera and Yadong threw down as expected so I still like the rationale behind that play, and Matt Brown had Baeza out momentarily so all in all no regrets. 7A1222B6-43A7-48A3-B6C3-9380E2B6EAAA.pngB6E896F6-09BE-4E3E-AFFC-9C72EE19286D.png8B6525A9-277E-40F2-A3A1-BA810678EE13.png8954C668-F2E6-490D-B38F-142E8ECD0C2B.pngCDA3F791-FF58-4AF4-8664-EC18CF020A45.png
 
May be an unpopular opinion but I don't think Yadong nor Gadelha decisions were controversial, and I LB Hill ML +500 and DEC +750.
 
May be an unpopular opinion but I don't think Yadong nor Gadelha decisions were controversial, and I LB Hill ML +500 and DEC +750.
I'd have to give Hill rounds 2 and 3 for landing the bigger shots and being more active. That knockdown in r2 was beautiful. Gadelha definitely had r1 and and some big moments in r3 though.
 
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