UFC on ESPN+ 27 Benavidez vs Figueiredo

lol @ classic yamasaki stoppage
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If you guys thought that stoppage was bad how about this?
Time for the ME clip show.





 
Now for
Figueiredo









 
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Interesting thing to look at with Benavidez. Look at how many grapplers he has faced recently. It's pretty insane to think about. In his last 10, I'd argue that every single one of them are primarily grapplers with the exception of Sergio and arguably Moraga. We know Benavidez has insane grappling ability and you can argue that he had the striking advantages due to these other fighters mainly being grapplers. As Mighty Mouse pointed out, Benavidez has a lot of major flaws striking. I think this is potentially a horrible matchup for him if he doesn't hit the takedowns. I'm not so sure his takedown ability is that great either - I think a lot of the fighters that he's faced welcomed the grappling.

Interesting point. Need to look into this.
 
So far still small on Benavidez for two or three reasons mainly. Power I'd say he is the physically stronger fighter here, just look at the tree trunks for legs.
Nasty kicks he basically wrecked Formiga with just kicks, took his movement with calf kicks, hurt him badly and forced him to the cage with a body kick then a beautiful head kick. Lastly his strong grappling, I think he is the stronger grappler here which may limit Figueiredo to mostly boxing here. Fig hits hard but he also loads heavy on his lead leg to do it, if Joey gets in on that calf early I think it could be a short night.
Don't forget guys that Mighty Mouse fight was over six years ago



*Edit currently watching Figueiredo vs Elliott
Thinking about 5 units on Joey. Elliott landed his slow leg kicks easily, off balancing Fig at one point. If Joey gets 2 or 3 in on the lead leg Fig will be in for a rough night.
 
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Joey B/Fig

Taking a broad look at this fight the strengths and weaknesses of each man are clear. Joey B is higher paced more active fighter, mixing his attacks well, throwing in combinations and ending them with kicks. He lacks in power and physically is very small and short limbed. One thing for sure is that he's a scrambly little bastard. Fig on the other hand is big and long and powerful. He's lower on out put but his landed strikes count for more. His major weakness is the ground, once taken down (Which happens in most of his fights) he generally stays on the ground.

Joey B is an all rounder, his strong suit is probably in the scrambles, a greased dwarf is a tricky beast to control, but he also throws a low calf kick with some consistency in all of his recent fights. It's effective and lands without putting his chin in danger, but it is an attack that he seems to forget after the first round.

A major hole in Joey B's game is with his hand striking and his defence during. He jumps into his punches, chin up, full speed, zero defence, over and over. He is offering that chin on a plate and I am very surprised it hasn't been caught more often.

This is something that a precision striker like Fig should be able to exploite. He is lower out put choosing to be more selective with his strikes looking to land a bomb and follow up with a flurry when he gets a good connection.

This waiting can be his does fall at times, if he doesn't get the fight he wants he can end up waiting too much and time gets away from him, but when he connects he does so with big power.

He is open to being taken down, and once he is on the mat he is fairly ineffective. In the Formiga fight he did include a nice addition to his game from bottom, posting with one hand and landing slicing elbows with the other arm, causing a deep cut but he does little to escape or improve his position.

The power and physicality are on the side of Fig, the speed, volume of strikes and over all well roundedness are on Joey B's.

I think Joey B will be difficult for Fig to close down and catch, Joey B circles the cage constantly and avoids being backed up. If he can stick and move and time his takedowns I could see an almost easy night for Joey B. Things get difficult quickly if Fig is able to impose his physicality.He will be able to throw Joey around, his landed strikes will knock him off balance and be much more eye catching. Avoiding the power, especially early is key.

Fig doesn't start throwing until he's made reads and he will spend a large part of the first just fainting and trying to draw reactions. In his recent fights he has looked heavier on the lead leg which I think will leave him more vulnerable to the calf kicks of Joey B

I feel Joey B would do well to avoid fighting in the pocket and the boxing range as much as possible. His chin is there to be hit and a power hitter like Fig will not need many to crack it.

Attack the calf, circle away from the power hand and keep the level of risk low.

Over all I favour Joey B to move latterly, dart in and out with leg kicks and look for reactive takedowns, whenever the fight hits the mat it will be Joey B's world. In the early going Fig will be able to explode out from bottom position, but with regular takedowns and constantly chasing this explosion will fade.

Joey B is a round winner, a minuet winner, Fig is big moment fighter. A tough fight for both men, small mistakes from either can lead to huge problems.

I like Joey B to attack the leg and frustrate Fig with his constant motion and slipperyness. Early Fig takes the centre and controls with pressure, as his energy drops he's more willing to back up and give space. Wait out the first two, and then up the tempo and Fig will crumble.

As ever, Fig is live for the KO and I would be in no way surprised to see him stun and finish Joey B, especially in the early going.

Current lines are close and there is value either way you chose to go, but I see Joey B's price declining as the week goes on, if you plan to play him take him now.

I Joey B finish is low percentage, possibly a sub over a tired Fig.

I'll take Joey B by decision.
 
Somethings telling me fig by ko. Benividez can get the takedown yes. But his top game and back control arent the same as formiga think fig can explode out or just not get controlled as badly. Cardio is an issue I guess. Fig has displayed a solid chin. DJ put Joe's lights out, hes getting up there in age. Its gonna happen again...eventually.
 
The power and physicality are on the side of Fig
Figueiredo may have harder punches but I'd be willing to bet Joey could squat more. Silly as it sounds a tree is only as strong as its roots. Personally leaning Joey ML and fight doesn't go the distance, think it covers Figs ptv and has a chance of hitting both for Benavidez
 
Figueiredo can be quite a beast in the fight cage.
I would be on him he also might get away with a Ko if Figueiredo finds a weak spot on benavidez.
 
plays are up btw. all these early lines are fucking up my article format and i end up writing breakdowns for plays that don't have value anymore - going to think of a solution.
 
I'v been thinking about the 2 bets I made, but I really am more interested in the Norma Dumont one. Keep in mind all this was at least 2 years ago.

She is relatively unknown. What little we have seen of her BJJ game is very good. She showed very good form in a trip TD, aggressiveness in pursuing position, good technique in top control, and seemed aggressive, and confident in her movements. This leads me to believe she rolls often with decent competition, and pays attention to the details.

In her fight with what I can only assume was a can she threw relatively straight punches with quite a bit of power. Again we saw a great trip TD, some heavy GnP, and a submission.

She has been out of the limelight pretty much completely except for a small appearance on a local show that didn't really show anything except that she was still in good shape.

FF 2 years and she is picked up for a spot against Megan Anderson on the main card. Everything else is just theorizing. I am assuming that she has been continuously training MMA with Gordin Fight Team that has quite a selection of Brazilian prospects.

I can't imagine that if she was simply training to maintain her physique that she would have been scouted and picked up for a debut on a main card. I have to assume that she has been working on MMA for 2 years and has improved significantly.

We know Megan has mental issues because she admitted them herself, and has delusions of grandeur of beating Cyborg. She has notoriously bad TDD, and ground game that may have improved(Color me skeptic). It is however a virtual certainty that Norma is taking this fight very seriously, and is on a full training camp. She looked healthy for the UFC contract picture so I have to assume she is going to show up ready to scrap.

I think Norma is going to have enough striking to use her clinch game, and get it to the ground, and have enough BJJ to submit Megan.

I might be wrong, but this fight seems like a good gamble at +200.
 
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I often forget that golden nugget of a quote of J.Danaher.
If you show me a fighter who can one, dominate the setups, two, dominate the pace of the fight, and three, dominate the simple direction of the fight – you show me a fighter who can do those three things, I’ll show you a fighter who can win 95% of the fights he gets into
Joseph is easily the better wrestler in this contest. So he will dictate the direction of the fight - ground or on feet.
Joe's wrestling advantage combined with his speed, will give him the ability to dictate the pace.
Speed will give him better timing which is a key to dominate the setups. The connections between phases of the fight. Fakes, faints etc.

Figueiredo's punching looks like he is throwing bricks. He hits hard, but largely in single kinda slow strikes (for the FLW standard). On the defensive end he can slip some punches for sure, but he doesn't put a counter (usually) in the end of his slips, he just evades. And longer combos/aggresive footwork from the opponent are revealing huge gaps in his defense. (I know Joe doesn't finish people on the feet, but I would not be surprised at all if he cracks Deiveson at some point. Joe can hit as hard as him and can maintan both power and volume deeper in the rounds.) Not to mention his guard is pretty low. For a flyweight he doesn't have an endless gastank and I question his cardio specially when this is scheduled for 5 rounds. Out of 18 fights Deiveson has gone to the scorecards only 4 times, from which he lost 1 and barely won 1. He is not a round winner, he is a finisher.

I know that I've become a running joke with my picks/bets and a lot of people are saying that whoever fighter I pick is going to lose for sure, but man... the evidences against Figueiredo are overwhelming IMO.

As a final words I wanna remind everybody the last time the forum was fading Joe was right after the Pettis fight. And we know what happened. I know Joe is old, not the athlete he once was but he is not that much fallen off, and he is still maybe the most skilled and experienced flyweight out there.
 
I often forget that golden nugget of a quote of J.Danaher.

Joseph is easily the better wrestler in this contest. So he will dictate the direction of the fight - ground or on feet.
Joe's wrestling advantage combined with his speed, will give him the ability to dictate the pace.
Speed will give him better timing which is a key to dominate the setups. The connections between phases of the fight. Fakes, faints etc.

Figueiredo's punching looks like he is throwing bricks. He hits hard, but largely in single kinda slow strikes (for the FLW standard). On the defensive end he can slip some punches for sure, but he doesn't put a counter (usually) in the end of his slips, he just evades. And longer combos/aggresive footwork from the opponent are revealing huge gaps in his defense. (I know Joe doesn't finish people on the feet, but I would not be surprised at all if he cracks Deiveson at some point. Joe can hit as hard as him and can maintan both power and volume deeper in the rounds.) Not to mention his guard is pretty low. For a flyweight he doesn't have an endless gastank and I question his cardio specially when this is scheduled for 5 rounds. Out of 18 fights Deiveson has gone to the scorecards only 4 times, from which he lost 1 and barely won 1. He is not a round winner, he is a finisher.

I know that I've become a running joke with my picks/bets and a lot of people are saying that whoever fighter I pick is going to lose for sure, but man... the evidences against Figueiredo are overwhelming IMO.

As a final words I wanna remind everybody the last time the forum was fading Joe was right after the Pettis fight. And we know what happened. I know Joe is old, not the athlete he once was but he is not that much fallen off, and he is still maybe the most skilled and experienced flyweight out there.

Maybe you are becoming a running joke and losing a lot of the bets because of your analysis and how completely one sided it is. A lot of analysis is going to be opinion, but you literally say things that are factually incorrect.

Your first part goes on with the Danaher quote. Your supporting point to that really relies on Joe's wrestling. Again, see my post earlier about how he faces grapplers who willingly grapple. When he faced someone like Pettis who was trying to avoid, he had issues. I don't think Joe B has shown great offensive wrestling, and he certainly doesn't show a gameplan where he looks to control similar to Formiga who gave Fig trouble. Joe loves the scrambles. If he doesn't get the takedowns and doesn't get control, your whole theory is out the window.

Your second paragraph is just crazy. This is where you say things that are factually incorrect as well. You go on about the holes in Fig's game standing, but how in the world can you not say this about Benavidez? His striking style leaves holes big time. I won't doubt that he has good offense, but again, he's mainly facing grapplers. Mighty Mouse said he was amazed by how he noticed Benavidez would leap in with his eyes closed and head straight up. Ever since he said that, I've noticed it big time. Where I really have a problem with this paragraph is that you state Fig "is not a round winner, he is a finisher". With the finishes in the second, he's winning the first round. He's also clearly winning the rounds where he gets finishes. In fact, I'm not sure if we ran the numbers that he'd have a much better round winning % than Benavidez. We can certainly say Fig is a round winner AND a finisher.

Benavidez is the fav here. Not sure why you are acting like he's being disrespected. In fact, I don't think he's been the dog since Mighty Mouse.
 
Maybe you are becoming a running joke and losing a lot of the bets because of your analysis and how completely one sided it is. A lot of analysis is going to be opinion, but you literally say things that are factually incorrect.

Your first part goes on with the Danaher quote. Your supporting point to that really relies on Joe's wrestling. Again, see my post earlier about how he faces grapplers who willingly grapple. When he faced someone like Pettis who was trying to avoid, he had issues. I don't think Joe B has shown great offensive wrestling, and he certainly doesn't show a gameplan where he looks to control similar to Formiga who gave Fig trouble. Joe loves the scrambles. If he doesn't get the takedowns and doesn't get control, your whole theory is out the window.

Your second paragraph is just crazy. This is where you say things that are factually incorrect as well. You go on about the holes in Fig's game standing, but how in the world can you not say this about Benavidez? His striking style leaves holes big time. I won't doubt that he has good offense, but again, he's mainly facing grapplers. Mighty Mouse said he was amazed by how he noticed Benavidez would leap in with his eyes closed and head straight up. Ever since he said that, I've noticed it big time. Where I really have a problem with this paragraph is that you state Fig "is not a round winner, he is a finisher". With the finishes in the second, he's winning the first round. He's also clearly winning the rounds where he gets finishes. In fact, I'm not sure if we ran the numbers that he'd have a much better round winning % than Benavidez. We can certainly say Fig is a round winner AND a finisher.

Benavidez is the fav here. Not sure why you are acting like he's being disrespected. In fact, I don't think he's been the dog since Mighty Mouse.
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#teamFigueredo
 
If Figuredo wins he's going to look like the smartest kid on the block. Maybe it's best to just take the advice you see as valid, and the rest with a grain of salt. No one was born with a golden understanding of fighting. Acting like an MMA savant is stupid.
 
Genuine question any advice for a degen planning to see the big show live for the first time?
Gonna charge my phone and see if I can get ahead on some of those Dimes live lines.
 
If Figuredo wins he's going to look like the smartest kid on the block. Maybe it's best to just take the advice you see as valid, and the rest with a grain of salt. No one was born with a golden understanding of fighting. Acting like an MMA savant is stupid.
Just having a little fun with it no ill will or crystal ball cockyness here. Just cutting up with Wiki the Sherdog goat as he sometimes caps fighters with a 90% win chance or better.
I see alot of people on Figueiredo understandable he has great power and solid boxing. Personally I think Joey will have more tools here and cap him at -180-200.

Will not be massively surprised if Figueiredo knocks Joey's head off. At least then I could take my one shot at Olivi xD. Not trying to be a cunt just found out they were married yesterday UFC aside kudos that woman is gorgeous.

As usual best of luck to anyone betting this weekend, don't mind my occasional nonsense.
 
Genuine question any advice for a degen planning to see the big show live for the first time?
Gonna charge my phone and see if I can get ahead on some of those Dimes live lines.

My advice is dont livebet. Honestly dont bet at all. Just go and enjoy the show.

My 2c.
 
I have been gambling on MMA for over a decade.

This is easily the worst card for betting I have ever witnessed.
 
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