UFC on ESPN+ 26 Felder vs Hooker

Going heavy with Georgi Karakhanyan -145 over Paul Redmond on Bellator right before Auckland kickoff. Not seeing why this isn’t -250 or something but I’m on it like Asians on rice.
 
Really excited for this card.

I think there is value on Loma, KK, and Riddell as underdogs.
 
Quick Picks as of current odds:

- Dobson should win, low level WMMA shouldn’t be -200 tho. Will stab at KO +415 line for giggles. Late finish possible.
- Hill/Look unsure, I’ll blindly bet the dog if the above bet wins.
- Kai/Tyson o2.5 but just too pricey for me. -190 I’ll play it. I think Kai wins dec but not gonna pay -125 for that. Late finish is possible.
- Potter channels inner Dan Kelly for the upset +175. Sprinkle some on 3rd RD finish.
- Meek Mills last chance at UFC job, could upset Matthews but I’m expecting o2.5 to hit but also too pricey for me. -185 I’ll play it. Late finish possible.
- Aguilar by dec because I feel Zubes might gas out like he did against that Brit. Sprinkle some on Aguilar 3rd round finish.
- Mustafaev ITD +155 but will hedge with Riddell 3rd round finish. Who really know this is pure violence. Late round finish by either guy possible.
- Going with o1.5 on Sosoli/Lima and also FGTD, keeping it small for action.
- Same sentirments with Crute/Michal. I think this has a pretty solid shot at FGTD.
- Yan ML just cuz she has more fighting spirit than Karolina at this stage of career.
- Going with o4.5 and fight starts round 3 & 4 for the main event. Late finish possible by either guy.

Plenty of fights on this card I could see late finishes so I might drop a few bucks across the board on 3rd round finishes.
 
Yea I pulled the trigger because KK gets hit alot Grasso hard her hurt a few times and I think Yan can as well. KK going vegan recently probably doesn't help her either.
So far my biggest reads are KKF and and Yan. I agree they are over priced but I'll probably parlay both by decision.

I like Yan a lot, but she is a pillow-fisted point striker. Polish dog shelter guy's fap material isn't going to get hurt too badly. Feel a bit bad on passing on the initial GTD line of -365 and hoping the juice would settle (it's -450 now), but it should be more like -900.
 
Quick Picks as of current odds:

- Dobson should win, low level WMMA shouldn’t be -200 tho. Will stab at KO +415 line for giggles. Late finish possible.
- Hill/Look unsure, I’ll blindly bet the dog if the above bet wins.
- Kai/Tyson o2.5 but just too pricey for me. -190 I’ll play it. I think Kai wins dec but not gonna pay -125 for that. Late finish is possible.
- Potter channels inner Dan Kelly for the upset +175. Sprinkle some on 3rd RD finish.
- Meek Mills last chance at UFC job, could upset Matthews but I’m expecting o2.5 to hit but also too pricey for me. -185 I’ll play it. Late finish possible.
- Aguilar by dec because I feel Zubes might gas out like he did against that Brit. Sprinkle some on Aguilar 3rd round finish.
- Mustafaev ITD +155 but will hedge with Riddell 3rd round finish. Who really know this is pure violence. Late round finish by either guy possible.
- Going with o1.5 on Sosoli/Lima and also FGTD, keeping it small for action.
- Same sentirments with Crute/Michal. I think this has a pretty solid shot at FGTD.
- Yan ML just cuz she has more fighting spirit than Karolina at this stage of career.
- Going with o4.5 and fight starts round 3 & 4 for the main event. Late finish possible by either guy.

Plenty of fights on this card I could see late finishes so I might drop a few bucks across the board on 3rd round finishes.

Any favorite 3rd round finish props in particular? I like to throw change on a round robin of 3-4 props like that.
 
Any favorite 3rd round finish props in particular? I like to throw change on a round robin of 3-4 props like that.

- Dobson/Zombie because of the way zombie fights, could be a ref stoppage?
- Aguilar cuz he’s got a few late finishes on his record and Zubaira gassed in his last fight.
- Potter because he’s a grinder and Kenan gassed in his last fight.
- Mustafaev/Riddell just because of the violent nature and both could gas late round finish if not 1st round finish.
- Maybe the Olek/Crute and Sosoli/Lima fights could
- main event for obvious reasons?
 
I like Yan a lot, but she is a pillow-fisted point striker. Polish dog shelter guy's fap material isn't going to get hurt too badly. Feel a bit bad on passing on the initial GTD line of -365 and hoping the juice would settle (it's -450 now), but it should be more like -900.
I thought Yan landed some solid shots on Hill at least in the first half. If she can get a few of this side kicks off at Karolina's chin she might hurt her. Counting on Karolina looking flat footed and playing into Yan's short combos but we shall see.
 
- Dobson/Zombie because of the way zombie fights, could be a ref stoppage?
- Aguilar cuz he’s got a few late finishes on his record and Zubaira gassed in his last fight.
- Potter because he’s a grinder and Kenan gassed in his last fight.
- Mustafaev/Riddell just because of the violent nature and both could gas late round finish if not 1st round finish.
- Maybe the Olek/Crute and Sosoli/Lima fights could
- main event for obvious reasons?

Yeah already had mustafaev, de Lima, felder on my radar so agree with you there.
 
Reminder that this card starts at 4pm ET.

Aka time to start pre gaming now
 
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Am I the only one that sees Matthews choking out Meek, who gives out takedowns at will? It pays well too, +330 at my book.
 
I am picking Riddell to win a Dec over Mustafaev. A small bet.
Matthews Sub Win Second Round.
Dan Hooker to win.

Fading the Hill/Loom fight. It would be a likely a dec grind.
 
Am I the only one that sees Matthews choking out Meek, who gives out takedowns at will? It pays well too, +330 at my book.

I took that prop last time and all I got was a 15 minute staring contest out of Matthews. Bad taste in my mouth but it’s possible forsure.
 
Am I the only one that sees Matthews choking out Meek, who gives out takedowns at will? It pays well too, +330 at my book.
Yes meek's favourite thing to do is go all crazy and giving away a takedown within 5 seconds. This guy is really a total moron. I wish i could play the prop: "takedown within a minute for Matthews"
 
Hill Angela - Lookboonmee Loma
Matthews Jake - Meek Emil
Riddel Brad - Mustafaev Magomed
Felder Paul - Hooker Dan

What do u think ?
 
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