Since everybody here is on Trinaldo, thought I would share my thoughts on Herbert.
IMO people are questioning his schedule too much...he's fighting decent enough sub-UFC competition, and absolutely smashing everybody. Even in the rounds where he is getting taken down, he's not losing any rounds because he gets back up and beats the brake off his opponents. 4 KO's in a row vs. that level of competition is nothing to sneeze at.
And not only is he smashing the competition outside of a few moments of grappling weakness, but he has an excellent reach and his striking looks great. I think it's safe to say that he is the best and most powerful striker Trinaldo has faced in his career. This may sound like a bold proclamation, but who is better than him? Paul Felder? James Vick? Trinaldo has not faced many dangerous strikers in his career, which is why his lack of KO losses is being overplayed. And he was hurt badly by a Kevin Lee headkick before being submitted immediately after. He has a good chin but it's not uniquely good, and at age 41 everybody's chin becomes unreliable.
Let's recall he was +190 vs James Vick and lost a clear decision because he couldn't get inside the reach 2.5 years ago when he was a sprightly 39 year old. Now he is a month away from turning 42, and people want to lay juice on him vs a better + more powerful striker with a similar reach, why? Because Herbert has slightly worse grappling defense than Vick? He can be taken down, but his get-up game is decent and seems to be improving. And Trinaldo has said that wrestling tires him out, has never shown the cardio to wrestle for large portions of a fight, and at 41 is unlikely he gets his first UFC wrestlefuck win.
Since the Vick fight, he arguably deserves 4 wins in a row, but it's against such soft competition. Dunham was complete dust. And then he BARELY outstruck Alexander Hernandez, whose striking looked awful vs Dober + Cowboy and is nowhere near the caliber of striker of Herbert.
The Bobby Green fight may be an L outside of Brazil, and his wrestling looked declined as Green (whose wrestling is average) was the better wrestler. Trinaldo did more damage striking, but he landed lower volume and was the beneficiary of Green's short arms and nonexistent power. Same goes for Makdessi, who is getting old and completely laid an egg vs Trinaldo.
It seems the recent wins are giving people confidence that Trinaldo isn't cooked when he is looking older every time out, and it's only a matter of time before he hits his expiration date. Missing weight isn't a good sign either-- either his body is no longer functioning like it should, or he is losing motivation since he knows he is too old to get a title shot, and instead of a ranked opponent he is drawing a talented debut guy who he matches up terribly with.
I cap Herbert as a solid fave. Sure I think there's some chance Trinaldo catches him with a big punch or a guillotine. Or maybe he can mix in enough takedowns to win a close decision. But I think the striking is going to be tough for Trinaldo. He's going to eat damage, and he is going to struggle to get inside the reach, and this may be the fight where the wheels fall off and he is finally KO'd. And Herbert is going to be landing the crisper, more damaging shots, which can shift the decision in his favor even if he does spend some time on bottom.
I have Herbert ML at +125 thru +150, Herbert KO +505, and Herbert round 1 +975. I understand the prospect of getting somebody as proven as Trinaldo vs somebody as unproven as Herbert at such low juice is a tempting proposition, but IMO this is the wrong matchup at the wrong time. Herbert should have trouble against ranked opponents that grapple well or have KO power, but today the UFC is setting him up with the perfect name brand opponent to make him look good and let him build hype.
