UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till - Official Bets

Wood/Chimaev itd/emeev -103
Bethe +140
Movsar -185
Tanner/Aspinall -115
Ronson +225
Trinaldo -120
Cowboy -155
Antigulov +122
Marina -173
Gus/Shogun +104
Whittaker -130
 
Great week for betting. Couldn't get to all the fights I was interested in, sadly. However, I taped 7 fights, with no-bets on Esparza-Rodriguez, Antigulov-Craig, Whittaker-Till, and Nogueira-Shogun 3. The other three were all very juicy, though;

5.8u on Gustafsson on -290
3u on Sobotta at +155
3u on Correia at +140
 
Hopefully Dalby and Aspinal come through, partly fading both their opponents.

●Dalby+ Aspinal -3 1/2 4u for 5u

●Wood+ Aspinal -3 1/2 1u for 1u

●Dalby - 3 1/2+ Aspinal -3 1/2 +
Sobotta +3 1/2 + Gus .5u for 2.5u
 
Whittaker itd 1u +215

Shogun dec 0.4u +300
Lil Nog KO 0.5u +375

Werdum sub 0.15u +850

Sobotta sub 0.5u +680

Trinaldo sub 0.25u +600

Ronson dec 0.3u +367

Aspinall itd 1u -111
Aspinall sub 0.1u +1500

Grundy 0.6u +190
Grundy KO 0.15u +1400

Boser dec 1u +125

Correia dec 0.6u +170, 0.4u +175

Aspinall + Dalby/Ronson over 2.5 1u +104
Aspinall itd + Dalby/Ronson over 2.5 + Trinaldo 0u for 1.5u
Oliveira/Sobotta Fight of the Night 0.15u +1000

All Aspinall bets after the weigh-ins. I expected to play Esparza, but I'm not so sure she manages to keep Rodriguez down for two rounds, which she will absolutely need to do in order to have any chance of victory. And I'm not sure I want to find out at +150 as Esparza is going to get lit up standing. The +257 Sadistics got is pretty insane, though. Thinking about Trinaldo, but his age + him missing weight brings back memories of Norman Parke who seemed to have fallen down three flights of cliffs before his fight against Gamrot.
 
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£200 Grundy +190 to win £380
£100 Rúa decisión +375 to win £375

Waiting until fight time odds to bet on Whitaker and maybe Trinaldo
 
BaruchSpinoza said:
After losing a little over 2u on a bunch of undisciplined bets on Fight Night 172, I sat out for Benavidez vs. Figuerdo. Trying to stay tight this event.

0.75 u Werdum vs. Gus GTD at +110

0.1 u Sobotta SUB at +900

1.5 u Chimaev vs. McKee starts R2 at +110 (I just can't accept a first round finish being a > 50% event)
0.125 u Chimaev SUB R2 at +850

EDIT: Trying to stay disciplined, but looked a little extra on fights scheduled before bedtime (the ME is 6 AM here...) and couldn't help adding:

1 u Wood vs. Castañada o.1.5 at -175
0.5 u Wood vs. Castañada Starts R2 at -250
0.375 u Wood Decision at +225

Thinking Wood should win but might be slightly tentative after being whacked continuously to the head by little man Dodson. Also, Castañada seems quite well-rounded and tough.

Good luck!
Click to expand...
Good start of the evening with the Wood bets hitting. However, I decided to cancel (bet365) my Werdum vs. Gus bet before going to bed. I feel if things go Gus's way Werdum will likely be close to a sitting duck after a round and a half.
 
boser has to be the squarest guy on the card right now after chimaev...
 
pessoa doesn't have an answer for the movement, but at least he isn't blowing a ton of energy.

clear 10-9 boser, but pessoa has to know he needs to take some risks.
 
Tried to parlay the first three fights. Needed 3k for that to work but the bookie took too long getting the money back to me after the Emeev win, so I had to wait on Pannie and live bet.

They dropped her to 1.05 after the first, but when Betche got that takedown and did absolutelky nothing with it, the idiots rose Pannie back up to 1.30. Lol. Dumbest raise ever so I jumped on that.

1900 up for the day, 2k for the weekend. Might roll the 2k + original 2k stake into something later.

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Sadistics said:
Werdum +292 $400

Esparza +257 $650

Craig +105 $1050
Craig/Antigulov U1.5 +118 $500

Sobotta +168 $415
Sobotta SUB +850 $185

Chimaev/McKee O1.5 +185 $400

Trinaldo -139 $800
Trinaldo SUB +600 $80

Ronson +319 $400
Ronson/Dalby O2.5 -180 $600

Aspinall -170 $850

Boser -189 $1600
Boser DEC +121 $300
Boser/Pessoa O2.5 -128 $800

Correia +158 $800

Castaneda +340 $250
Castaneda/Wood O1.5 -182 $600

Idk if it was a glitch but DSI had Esparza +257 yesterday, I'm pretty sure they honour it. Botched the Castaneda line, but I expect major CLV on most other lines. Want to be on Whittaker at -110 or better, let's see where the line goes.
Click to expand...

crushed it brother congrats
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Great week for betting. Couldn't get to all the fights I was interested in, sadly. However, I taped 7 fights, with no-bets on Esparza-Rodriguez, Antigulov-Craig, Whittaker-Till, and Nogueira-Shogun 3. The other three were all very juicy, though;

5.8u on Gustafsson on -290
3u on Sobotta at +155
3u on Correia at +140
Click to expand...

0.7u on Wood at -350 after round 1 for the sole win of the night, 1u on Stolze at +200 after round 1, and 1u on Till +155 pre-bet.

It was an absolute bloodbath, -13.6u, worst betting card I've ever had.

I was away at a birthday party for the Sobotta and Correia losses, but I saw the Gustafsson fight. I capped Gustafsson at -900 and thought Werdum's ONLY chance was to get top position from some crazy scramble because his takedowns are so worthless, do it before he was knocked out, and then hope that without any GNP to aid him, he could somehow work his painfully slow BJJ to get a submission, most likely an armbar, as his back takes are white belt level awful nowadays.

And like a nightmare coming true, that's exactly what unfolded.

Stolze live-bet was fine considering I thought he won round 1 (do judges not count the very end of a round, especially when it's a near knockout?), and Till was a good bet, as I personally had it 3-2 for him.

Anywho, surprisingly upbeat despite the huge loss; time to get back to work and rebuild that bankroll.
 
£200 Grundy +190 to win £380 -£200
£100 Rúa decisión +375 to win £375

Added during the event...

I was right in waiting for the Trinaldo line as it improved...
Trinaldo £100 +100 / £100 +106 to win £206

Decided not to bet on Whittaker in the end after the line didn't improve how I predicted and I wasn't able to get -110 odds (actually bet £10 on this from before) as the betting site with those odds didn't work with VPN (as I'm in Belgrade)

Live bets...
£100 on Trinaldo at +140 after Rd 1 to win £140
£100 on Nog at +110 at the end of Rd 3 to win £110 -£100 (Wanted to hedge my bet as it was extremely close)

Net Profit: £421

Actually didn't realize I did that well, I felt like the Trinaldo bet was actually a bad call with him being old alongside the bad weight cut even though it came through.

 
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Krieg the Psycho said:
Whittaker itd 1u +215

Shogun dec 0.4u +300
Lil Nog KO 0.5u +375

Werdum sub 0.15u +850

Sobotta sub 0.5u +680

Trinaldo sub 0.25u +600

Ronson dec 0.3u +367

Aspinall itd 1u -111
Aspinall sub 0.1u +1500

Grundy 0.6u +190
Grundy KO 0.15u +1400

Boser dec 1u +125

Correia dec 0.6u +170, 0.4u +175

Aspinall + Dalby/Ronson over 2.5 1u +104
Aspinall itd + Dalby/Ronson over 2.5 + Trinaldo 0u for 1.5u
Oliveira/Sobotta Fight of the Night 0.15u +1000

All Aspinall bets after the weigh-ins. I expected to play Esparza, but I'm not so sure she manages to keep Rodriguez down for two rounds, which she will absolutely need to do in order to have any chance of victory. And I'm not sure I want to find out at +150 as Esparza is going to get lit up standing. The +257 Sadistics got is pretty insane, though. Thinking about Trinaldo, but his age + him missing weight brings back memories of Norman Parke who seemed to have fallen down three flights of cliffs before his fight against Gamrot.
Click to expand...
Added (some live)
0.25u Bethe +530 loss

1u Trinaldo -109 win
0.5u Trinaldo -103 win
0.2u Herbert KO +500 loss

0.6u Khamzat different rounds loss

0.6u Rodriguez rd3 or dec -112 loss
2u Esparza -139 win
1u Esparza -167 win
0.5u Esparza +265 win

Another terrible start, but managed to climb all the way back. Chasing by betting Esparza might not have been the best idea, though. If I had only taken what was given instead of forcing plays, I could have just bet her after the 2nd round at +2xx. But that should be +0.75u
 
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