UFC on ESPN 1 Ngannou vs Velasquez

[ClipYourDirtyWings]

There are shaping up to be some nice opportunities to arb early plays here with the current lines. Cain-Francis, Vick-Felder, Aljo-Rivera; I could guarantee myself almost 3u already by switching sides on Francis and Vick.

 

[Cockadoodle]

Manny never knocks Morales down in that fight?
Manny gets knocked down tho.... tbh tho it looks more like he was playing possum trying to get Morales to grapple with him

You are right my bad, i still think manny has the strong grip of a life long masturbator and will be to sticky for Lopez to escape

 

[edole]

Was looking to bet Evans-Smith, but after some tape, I am leaning towards a play on Andrea Lee.

Lee is a much better striker and is very strong in the clinch.

Evans-Smith might land a couple of takedowns, but Lee is decent at getting back to her feet.

Thoughts on the bout?

 

[null]

I usually don't have a negative feeling about a fighter, but wagering aside, I can't help but feel negatively about Andrea Lee and her defending her Nazi-tattooed racist husband who beat her. Amazing how that guy has been on the loose for months now and no one has any idea where to find him, eh?

 

[edole]

I usually don't have a negative feeling about a fighter, but wagering aside, I can't help but feel negatively about Andrea Lee and her defending her Nazi-tattooed racist husband who beat her. Amazing how that guy has been on the loose for months now and no one has any idea where to find him, eh?

I agree. She sucks as a person.

I think she gets the win here though.

 

[TITS]

The main event is hard to decide on. I can see Cain smothering Francis and grinding him out, but on the other hand I can see Ngannou knocking Cain's face off.

Decisions.

 

[NorthernLights]

Manny looked awkward knocking morales down? Its not like Lopez is a technical striker, i can see him rushing in and flailing in the pocket where his striking advantage is for naught. He will get taken down. And its not like Lopez hits that hard, if he had a string of kos i would think again. Even if he does get a knock down he has to engage on the ground to finish. His jumping knee can do damage thats probably the only way i can see a finish as manny shoots.

No, he looked awkward because of his poor defence and wild punches. And he was the one getting knocked down. I'm not sure if Lopez will be the one to captalize but I feel like Bermudez is bound to get knocked out soon. I think FDNGTD is the best play since it very likely ends with Manny finding the sub or getting knocked out while trying.

 

[Austisthunder]

I usually don't have a negative feeling about a fighter, but wagering aside, I can't help but feel negatively about Andrea Lee and her defending her Nazi-tattooed racist husband who beat her. Amazing how that guy has been on the loose for months now and no one has any idea where to find him, eh?

Cringe & bluepilled

 

[ill800]

The main event is hard to decide on. I can see Cain smothering Francis and grinding him out, but on the other hand I can see Ngannou knocking Cain's face off.

Decisions.

I will definitely be playing ngannou rd 1

I have roughly 5 units on Cain at -140 and -150

Ngannou has a lot of heart and still has power even after he’s completely gassed. I don’t think his cardio issues are fixed. He’s a massive muscular guy and I don’t think it will be easy for him to have good cardio with his frame and power he throws with

His tdd just isn’t very good and Cain is an even better wrestler than stipe. Cain could make this a nightmare on the mat for him

 

[Soccer Steve]

I will definitely be playing ngannou rd 1

I have roughly 5 units on Cain at -140 and -150

Ngannou has a lot of heart and still has power even after he’s completely gassed. I don’t think his cardio issues are fixed. He’s a massive muscular guy and I don’t think it will be easy for him to have good cardio with his frame and power he throws with

His tdd just isn’t very good and Cain is an even better wrestler than stipe. Cain could make this a nightmare on the mat for him

Insert ‘can’t trust Cain’ or ‘long layoff’ here. While this caution has merit, I think we can totally trust Cain to wrestle and to do so immediately, exactly because of the layoff. I think he’s going to go with as safe a gameplan as possible and get that monster down and out asap.
That said, the odds suck right now. Gonna have to wait til weigh ins and hope.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I rewatched Benito-Morales and imo Lopez lost that fight. To much spining shit too, confidence increased in Bermudez

 

[MacPherson911]

Cringe & bluepilled

what's this mean?

 

[alexodb]

 

[Roads55]

Very tempted to bet andrea gestapo lee. Partially a fade of aes tho

 

[Roads55]

Cain ml/ nganou ko seems obvious here with cains drifting price. But nganou ko will probably be too close to his ml.. hard to see him winning a 5 round decision

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Vick is also on record saying his weight cut against Gaychee was the toughest one of his career. Can't be getting much easier.

Second thing if he won that fight he woudlnt have such excusses, would be more like,, Weight cut was great, give me Khabib" lol

 

[OutRun]

Cringe & bluepilled

kek be careful throwing bants at the veterans unless you're willing to make alts like Buddens did
they tend to have close relationships with the mods

 

[OutRun]

what's this mean?

He's cringing at the thought of Andrea Lee standing up for an abuser, and comparing her mindset to somebody stuck in the Matrix (who has taken the blue pill).

On-topic, somebody said a few pages back that Vick would be -200 if not for his recent knocking out. I can't think of when I've last seen him hurt before that, and given that I tend to see fighters as always regressing to a mean (a mean which might shift very slightly from fight-to-fight) I'm inclined to see value in Vick. Investors are supposed to open positions when people get scared (and close them when people get greedy.)

 

[wack3d]

He's cringing at the thought of Andrea Lee standing up for an abuser, and comparing her mindset to somebody stuck in the Matrix (who has taken the blue pill).

On-topic, somebody said a few pages back that Vick would be -200 if not for his recent knocking out. I can't think of when I've last seen him hurt before that, and given that I tend to see fighters as always regressing to a mean (a mean which might shift very slightly from fight-to-fight) I'm inclined to see value in Vick. Investors are supposed to open positions when people get scared (and close them when people get greedy.)

 

[Oblivian]

Who are your top 3 in confidence? I'm struggling to trust any dogs this week...(yet I have a small bet on Barao haha)

Biggest on Aljo. Equal size plays on the next 3: Lentz, Evans-Smith, and Fili. I actually have a play on Sanders here.