UFC on ESPN 1 Ngannou vs Velasquez

[wack3d]

you liked how many leg kicks he took vs teymur or something?

everybody that fights Teymur will take a ton of legkicks. i was impressed with how much he managed to land (sig stats 61-67) and just how improved he looked in his striking compared to the past

 

[Dianabol]

lentz was dropped by mcbride,maynard....and twice vs teymur

Fake news. Also fightmetric didn't give one knockdown to any of those opponents.

Looked like he slipped or got caught on the back of the head vs Mcbride
Teymur never dropped him
Maynard rocked him but didn't really drop him, Maynard got finished seconds later.

Seems like you're trying to make a case for Lentz having a weak chin. The guy has 41 pro fights and he's never been KO'd, his only KO/TKO losses are doctor stoppages. Lentz has a very solid chin

 

[Broe.]

Fake news, get your eyes checked. Also fightmetric didn't give one knockdown to any of those opponents.

Looked like he slipped or got caught on the back of the head vs Mcbride
Teymur never dropped him
Maynard rocked him but didn't really drop him, Maynard got finished seconds later.

Seems like you're trying to make a case for Lentz having a weak chin. The guy has 41 pro fights and he's never been KO'd, his only KO/TKO losses are doctor stoppages. Lentz has a very solid chin

i dont care if fightmetric gives any knockdown, a knockdown is usually a combination of being out of balance and getting punched at the same time, whether you call it a slip then is open to interpretation. He was clearly dropped by mcbride imo. I am not trying to make a case for Lentz having a weak chin, he clearly doesn't. I was just referring to the 'holtzmann got dropped by horcher of all people'' comment, while lentz got dropped by mcbride.

 

[wack3d]

i dont care if fightmetric gives any knockdown, a knockdown is usually a combination of being out of balance and getting punched at the same time, whether you call it a slip then is open to interpretation. He was clearly dropped by mcbride imo. I am not trying to make a case for Lentz having a weak chin, he clearly doesn't. I was just referring to the 'holtzmann got dropped by horcher of all people'' comment, while lentz got dropped by mcbride.

read again i said he was getting cracked vs Horcher which is true

 

[Dianabol]

i dont care if fightmetric gives any knockdown, a knockdown is usually a combination of being out of balance and getting punched at the same time, whether you call it a slip then is open to interpretation. He was clearly dropped by mcbride imo. I am not trying to make a case for Lentz having a weak chin, he clearly doesn't. I was just referring to the 'holtzmann got dropped by horcher of all people'' comment, while lentz got dropped by mcbride.

It's very hard to tell if Mcbride dropped Lentz or if Lentz slipped, the only shot that looked like it landed was a grazing hook that hit the back of his head, either way it didn't look like he Lentz hurt.

Here's the thing with Holtzman, everyone is judging him on his performance vs Patrick, that performance is kind of an outlier. And no one fully understands the variables which lead to the outcome of that fight. Maybe Patrick was injured, maybe he was off the juice, maybe he was overrated or maybe Holtzman is just that good, it's hard to say.

If the Patrick fight never happened the Lentz/Holtzman line would be flipped, Holtzman stock rose significantly with that win. Maybe Holtzman is getting a bit too much respect for one performance.

 

[ill800]

Felder has dropped to -105


I want +money

Think I’m #fadingthejerk on just about everything here. On mostly dogs. Dont foresee myself paying juice for any of these guys.

Luque is too steep for my blood

Happy with my Cain play at -140

People fooling themselves thinking ngannou is going to stuff his takedowns

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Ngannou doesn't hand fight all that well and that's something you NEED when battling an AKA guy in the clinch especially against the fence. I favor a healthy Cain vs Francis big time but I dunno how you can have confidence in him at all with the major major red flags hes presenting. Fight screams pass imo.

 

[NorthernLights]

I honestly think the Lopez bet is low percentage, tried to find a way to bet him but watching their fights the takedown is inevitable followed by the sub.

I don't know about that, Bermudez doesn't really have good takedowns and looked awkward on the feet against Morales. Not sure if theres much to learn about his striking game from the Grant fight (other than the fact that he has some power in his shots) considering the short amount of time it stayed standing. I could see Lopez getting a KO or decision win here.

 

[Cockadoodle]

I don't know about that, Bermudez doesn't really have good takedowns and looked awkward on the feet against Morales. Not sure if theres much to learn about his striking game from the Grant fight (other than the fact that he has some power in his shots) considering the short amount of time it stayed standing. I could see Lopez getting a KO or decision win here.

Manny looked awkward knocking morales down? Its not like Lopez is a technical striker, i can see him rushing in and flailing in the pocket where his striking advantage is for naught. He will get taken down. And its not like Lopez hits that hard, if he had a string of kos i would think again. Even if he does get a knock down he has to engage on the ground to finish. His jumping knee can do damage thats probably the only way i can see a finish as manny shoots.

 

[Chris Wang]

No one thinks Bryan Barberena has a chance against Luque?

 

[Austisthunder]

Manny looked awkward knocking morales down? Its not like Lopez is a technical striker, i can see him rushing in and flailing in the pocket where his striking advantage is for naught. He will get taken down. And its not like Lopez hits that hard, if he had a string of kos i would think again. Even if he does get a knock down he has to engage on the ground to finish. His jumping knee can do damage thats probably the only way i can see a finish as manny shoots.

Manny never knocks Morales down in that fight?
Manny gets knocked down tho.... tbh tho it looks more like he was playing possum trying to get Morales to grapple with him

 

[BDX777]

guys what about odds for Caceres and Barberena
lets start from Caceres vs Gracie
I know Gracie... world class grappler but, his stand up techniques are shit, takedowns are not better, even from clinch, just check his last fight.
Caceres should be able to defense takedowns and keep the distance by jab, adds some other punches and kick from time to time. I dont get why everyone thinks that Gracie gonna win so easy.

And the same odd for Barberena, who almost won with Edwards who easily was beating Luque in stand up.
In my opinion that fight is 50/50 both of them gonna try to keep stand up fight so why not to take higher odd?

 

[ill800]

Ngannou doesn't hand fight all that well and that's something you NEED when battling an AKA guy in the clinch especially against the fence. I favor a healthy Cain vs Francis big time but I dunno how you can have confidence in him at all with the major major red flags hes presenting. Fight screams pass imo.

For what it’s worth Cormier said Cain is 100% healthy

If he can stay away from the big shot and get the fight to the ground we will see a repeat of ngannou vs stipe but Cain will finish him inside of 3 rounds

 

[Naught2Sixty]

For what it’s worth Cormier said Cain is 100% healthy

If he can stay away from the big shot and get the fight to the ground we will see a repeat of ngannou vs stipe but Cain will finish him inside of 3 rounds

Just to play devils advocate, of course he's saying that, Cain is his boy. DC isn't going to ruin one of best friends chances at what he wants to do by spreading doubt into everyone. Hard to see how Cain is doing at the moment. We'll get a better look during the open workouts I suppose.

Agree with your points though. Cain will get it on the ground if he doesnt get clocked where he should dominate. Cain can set a pace far harder and higher than Stipe.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

Hey guys, remember when Cain almost made a comeback against Werdum in late 2016 and he wasn’t allowed after a interview where he said he was in constant pain and CBD was the only thing helping?

How do you trust that guy vs Ngannou?

Your point about the uncertainty of Cain's health is a good one. But Francis looked like shit in his only two fights over the last few years where he didn't get a first round stoppage and I think that bodes poorly for him in this fight. Maybe he starches Cain instantly, but if not I think he's in for a long night and the longer the fight goes the more likely it is that he gets mauled on the ground.

 

[GrantSorenson]

Manny looked awkward knocking morales down? Its not like Lopez is a technical striker, i can see him rushing in and flailing in the pocket where his striking advantage is for naught. He will get taken down. And its not like Lopez hits that hard, if he had a string of kos i would think again. Even if he does get a knock down he has to engage on the ground to finish. His jumping knee can do damage thats probably the only way i can see a finish as manny shoots.

Lopez gambles with knees a lot. He could crack Bermudez on the way in. He should be OK at range. Bermudez looks slick as hell on the mat though.

 

[null]

I bet Kron Gracie to win 1u at -315 as well. Alex Caceres isn't that good that he can avoid Kron's grappling and elite submission threat.

 

[Oblivian]

guys what about odds for Caceres and Barberena
lets start from Caceres vs Gracie
I know Gracie... world class grappler but, his stand up techniques are shit, takedowns are not better, even from clinch, just check his last fight.
Caceres should be able to defense takedowns and keep the distance by jab, adds some other punches and kick from time to time. I dont get why everyone thinks that Gracie gonna win so easy.

And the same odd for Barberena, who almost won with Edwards who easily was beating Luque in stand up.
In my opinion that fight is 50/50 both of them gonna try to keep stand up fight so why not to take higher odd?

Disagree with you on both. I'm on a lot of dogs this event, but I'm not on either of those. Caceres is not a fighter who likes to gameplan at all. In fact, he often likes fighting with his opponents at their strength. I would be shocked to see him look to footwork his way to a decision.

With Barberena, he thrives on guys that have a major deficiency somewhere or bad cardio. With his durability, it gives him the ability to exploit those weaknesses. With Luque, I don't think he'll find one. Luque is better than him everywhere technically, and he's got more power and athleticism on top of that. I think Barberena can possibly get lucky and land something if Luque gets sloppy or Barb just goes balls to the wall, but otherwise, he should lose bell to bell or bell to finish.

 

[Gugabe]

It's very hard to tell if Mcbride dropped Lentz or if Lentz slipped, the only shot that looked like it landed was a grazing hook that hit the back of his head, either way it didn't look like he Lentz hurt.

Here's the thing with Holtzman, everyone is judging him on his performance vs Patrick, that performance is kind of an outlier. And no one fully understands the variables which lead to the outcome of that fight. Maybe Patrick was injured, maybe he was off the juice, maybe he was overrated or maybe Holtzman is just that good, it's hard to say.

If the Patrick fight never happened the Lentz/Holtzman line would be flipped, Holtzman stock rose significantly with that win. Maybe Holtzman is getting a bit too much respect for one performance.

Yeah. Patrick looked oddly depleted there, attempted to strike for 3-4 minutes, gassed and then looked shitty when he started going in for takedowns again IIRC. Weird performance that's a massive outlier compared to the rest of Holtzmann's UFC career.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I'm on a lot of dogs this event.

Who are your top 3 in confidence? I'm struggling to trust any dogs this week...(yet I have a small bet on Barao haha)