UFC on ESPN 1 Ngannou vs Velasquez Official Bets

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Jan 30, 2019.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    post 'em
     
  2. Jordan3399

    Jordan3399 Green Belt

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    1.5u Ngannou ML +200
    0.6u Ngannou R1 KO +400
    0.25u Ngannou R2 KO +900
    0.1u Ngannou R3 KO +3300

    3u Vick ML +138
    0.5u Vick Dec +175
    1u Felder KO +250

    1u Fili ML +175

    2u Evans-Smith ML +165
    0.25u Evans-Smith ITD +850

    1u Esquibel ML +150
    0.5u Esquibel Dec +175

    2u Whitmire ML +162

    2u Holtzman ML -175

    1u Lopez ML +200

    1u Luque-Barbarena - FGTD +138

    2u Rivera ML -143
    0.5u Rivera Dec +125

    0.5u Barao ML +162
    0.25u Barao Dec +450

    0.25u Caceres Dec +600
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2019 at 7:01 AM
  3. Kyle Stephens

    Kyle Stephens Blue Belt

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    Texecutioner 10u @ 2.20 (+120)
    [​IMG]
    I don't care what everybody think, live or die with this bet. I am 110% sure he is winning this. I waited so long for this fight to bet. (I'll hedge it with some money on Felder via decision, Vick has a tendency to get the fights close if he doesn't finish them, but this is I believe the worst case scenario)
     
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  4. Austisthunder

    Austisthunder Yellow Belt

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    3U Myles Jury -195. ML
    3 U Manny Bermudez -260 ML
    1 U Ngannou+180 ML
     
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  5. Ruthfella

    Ruthfella Green Belt

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    Ngannou 10u +220
     
  6. MacPherson911

    MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    why hedge if you're that confident?
     
  7. MacPherson911

    MacPherson911 Blue Belt

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    now we're gambling!
     
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  8. usernamee

    usernamee Brown Belt

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    begs to question what percentage of the bankroll a unit is for some people :p
     
  9. SalvadorAllende

    SalvadorAllende Paper belt

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    Cain KO: 1.2u to win 1u
    Ngannou round 1. 1u to win 2.58u
    Vick: 1u to win 1.02u
    Barao: 1u to win 1.52u
    Caceres: 1u to win 2.28u
    Lentz: 1u to win 1.33u

    0.33u down.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2019 at 8:53 PM
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  10. Ruthfella

    Ruthfella Green Belt

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  11. lefontes

    lefontes Green Belt

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    Whitmire 1u @2.62
    Esquibel 1u @2.40
    Vick 1u @2.10
    O1.5 Lopez/Bermudez 1u @1.90
    O1.5 Luque/Barberena 1u @1.70
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2019 at 6:20 AM
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  12. Sadistics

    Sadistics Purple Belt

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    Velasquez/Ngannou DNGTD -350 $350

    Calvillo/Casey GTD -165 $75

    Gracie -285 $285

    Rivera -135 $250

    Lopez +225 $45
    Lopez/Bermudez DNGTD -155 $155

    Lee -177 $200

    Esquibel +150 $400

    Sanders -167 $1250

    Whitmire +160 $100


    Young (-210) + De La Rosa (-205) + Lee (-185) +238 $300

    Tiny card for me, waiting on a couple totals and props.
     
  13. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Green Belt

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    Vick ML - 3u for 3.6u

    Calvillo ML - 4u for 1.5u

    Jury ML - 3.5u for 2u

    Lee ML - 1u for 0.5u

    Barao ML - 1u for 1.6u

    Whitemire ML - 2u for 3.1u

    Gracie + Luque - 1u for 0.6u

    First wave is small. Looked forward to betting a bunch of dogs but I think a lot of them are in over their heads - Casey, Fili, Caceres, Barbarena - these four are a combined 54-28. They're just not very good.
     
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  14. Shoulder

    Shoulder #29 most average paid MMA bettor on Sherdog.

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    Feeling cute, might add later. Regret not going bigger on Vick.

    Updated with some more Francis action, overs and props. Love those odds.

    upload_2019-2-17_9-32-50.png
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Feb 17, 2019 at 12:32 AM
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  15. Soccer Steve

    Soccer Steve Green Belt

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    Ngganou ML - 2u for 2.9u

    Vick ML - 5u for 5.5u
    Vick Decision - 1.5u for 2.6u

    Calvillo ML - 8u for 2.78u

    Jury ML - 5u for 3u
    Jury Decision - 1.5u for 2.5u
    Jury Round 3 - 0.5u for 7u

    Sterling ML - 3.5u for 4.9u
    Sterling Sub - 0.5u for 3u

    Lopez KO - 0.5u for 1.6u

    Lee ML - 1u for 0.5u

    Barao ML - 1u for 1.6u
    Barao Sub - 0.5u for 2.6u

    Lentz ML - 2u for 3u
    Lentz Sub - 0.5u for 3u

    Penne Sub - 0.5u for 1.8u

    Whitemire ML - 2u for 3.1u

    Gracie + Luque - 3u for 2u

    Whitmire+Sanders+Penne+Lentz+Lee+Aljo+Jury+Vick+Nggannou - 0.2u for 50u
    (Have a whole swath of ohmbet doubles and lottos to get through their rollover requirement on new deposits. For fun/action but will post if a nice one hits)

    Frankly too heavy on Calvillo. That got away on me. She'll win but I'll be sweating it.
    Went with Francis in the end, in spite of my early posts about leaning Cain. It's the correct betting play. Depending on how Bellator goes tonight might add to him but otherwise I'm set. Keeping props very small by design. In the past I've spread myself too thin on those.

    And waiting on the event prop: fights to go to decision. Over 10 has a decent chance here imo. We'll see.

    Good luck everyone.
     
  16. Sadistics

    Sadistics Purple Belt

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    Velasquez/Ngannou DNGTD -350 $350
    Ngannou RD1 KO +400 $125
    Ngannou RD2 KO +900 $50
    Ngannou KO or DEC +225 $200

    Calvillo/Casey GTD -165 $75

    Gracie -285 $285

    Rivera -135 250
    Rivera NSC -107 $250
    Rivera/Sterling O2.5 -255 $500

    Lopez +225 $45
    Lopez/Bermudez DNGTD -155 $155

    Lee -177 $200

    Holtzman/Lentz GTD -275 $500

    Esquibel +150 $400
    Esquibel DEC +200 $100
    Esquibel/Penne GTD -280 $500
    Penne NSC -235 $590

    Sanders -167 $1250

    Whitmire +160 $100


    Young (-210) + De La Rosa (-205) + Lee (-185) +238 $300


    May arb out some Esquibel ML action, otherwise I'm about set. Expecting livebet to be very profitable on this card.
     
  17. edole

    edole Brown Belt

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    1.55u on Cain to win 1u

    1.65u on Lee to win 1u

    Added:

    1u Felder to win 1u
     
    Last edited: Feb 16, 2019 at 11:24 AM
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  18. barrygood1

    barrygood1 Blue Belt

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    Barry's UFC Fight Night Velasquez vs Ngannou Picks

    1. Jodie Esquibel ML +120 1U
    2. Renan Barao Points +3.5 -125 1.25U
    3. Emily Whitmire ML +110 1U
    4. Nick Lentz Wins Inside Distance +550 0.25U
    5. Ashley Evans Smith By Decision +220 1U
    6. Benito Lopez Points +3.5 +120 1U
    7. Jimmy Rivera By KO/TKO +610 0.25U
    8. Miles Jury Points -3.5 +160 1U
    9. Bryan Barbarena Points +3.5 165 1U
    10. Caceres/Gracie Fight Goes To Decision +275 0.5U
    11. Courtney Casey Points +3.5 +130 1U
    12. Felder/Vick Fight Doesn't Go To Decision -110 1U
    13. Velasquez/Ngannou Fight Won't Start RD.2 +125 1U

    Risking: 11.25U

    - Barry
     
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  19. Tirimasuperman

    Tirimasuperman White Belt

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    Y'all don't post W-L-P and Unit Records here?
     
  20. Cockadoodle

    Cockadoodle Yellow Belt

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    Ngannou ML 2u for 4.04u
    Cain sub .5u for 4.5u

    Vick ML 2u for 2.5u
    Vick Dec 1u for 1.8u
    Felder ko 1u for 2u

    Calvillo Sub 1u for 2.3u

    Caceres ML 1u for 2.9u

    Barbarena ML 1u for 2.86u
    FGTD 1u for 1.23u
    Barbarena r3 tko .2u for 6u

    Jury R3/Dec 2u for 2.8u

    Rivera ML 2u for 1.34u
    Stirling sub .5u for 3u

    Bermudez ML 4.5u for 2u
    Bermudez sub 1u for 1u
    Lopez KO .5u for 2.5u

    AES 2.5u for 4u

    Lentz ML 1u for 1.53u

    Esquibel ML 2u for 2.88u

    Barao sub .5u for 3u

    Whitmire ML 1u for 1.38u

    geeze im on every fight.. highly suspect behavior
    Good Luck
     

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