UFC FOX 27 PBP/Discussion

Physique-wise he looked very good also, despite what a lot of people initially thought. Perception is so very malleable.
 
ill800 said:
This fight confirmed what I thought

Jacare ain’t done yet.

Brunson is the same fighter. Makes the same mistakes

This was a great opportunity to hit jacare at dog odds

Should’ve went heavier
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Word. I forgot there was a card on and only saw the odds for the main fight where they were walking out and was surprised at where it was set. Jacare is elte and though Brunson is top 10, his defence and chin are pretty poor. He beats everyone out of the top 10 but him being favourite against Jacare was bizarre.
 
Welp that +600 dober/camacho fotn is looking good

Camacho win would’ve been huge but I’m happy with 16+ units
 
Think the Machida finish also was echo-ing a lot in people's minds, an aging Brazilian fighter that's looking less and less swole fighting a fast-twitch guy with good tdd.
 
I really gotta learn to hedge the later fights when I'm up big. Was up a 15u+ before the co-main started, I can't have the mindset of that I'm already up a lot so I can afford to take some risks to make it a even better night. Slow and steady in the long run
 
First win in this year
Marks
Gilespie
Nikon price
Dobre
200 and won 620$ :)
 
Camacho would have made my night with fucking 20u

Back to zero.
 
oh goodie. 5d graded all of my camacho NSC bets as losses as another big middle finger even after i get robbed on the fight.
 
Got destroyed in every way possible on this card, but only down 5.5 units. The importance of bankroll management is huuuge in this game, especially when the judges are totally totally incompetent like tonight. Sorry to Bermudez backers, I bet Fili live and prematch, Dennis got robbed there imo
 
Tonight was terrible with that god awful judging.....not much you can do

Up +2u but only thanks to adding on to Jacare late when the odds went +115. Was on Jacare the whole week but if Camacho and Dennis hit would have been up huge on some parlays.

Hang in there lads, we'll get em next time
 
stretcharmstrong said:
No it isn't. If that's what your analysis tells you then don't bet Brunson to begin with...
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Depends how big you think your edge is.

I hedged off my Brunson +140 with Jacare +110 on Betfair since I know my long-term edge is about 20% and I'd prefer to take that for free than have to risk it.
 
I thought Jacare looked great, obviously he isn't in his physical prime anymore but that is to be expected at 38 years old. I thought that Brunson would catch him early but I don't mind being proven wrong. Also, is Jacare training in Orlando now shed some new light on Mike Perry's camp? I know that the general consensus is that he would be better off going somewhere else but maybe his camp is pretty good after all if Jacare chose to move there.
 
raketmannen said:
I really gotta learn to hedge the later fights when I'm up big. Was up a 15u+ before the co-main started, I can't have the mindset of that I'm already up a lot so I can afford to take some risks to make it a even better night. Slow and steady in the long run
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That doesnt make any sense. If you made a bet (that you think is profitable, why else would you make it?) for the main event, why would you backtrack on that after winning on the earlier fights? You're just donating money to the bookie by paying juice twice and losing EV.

That's like reverse chasing losses lol.
 
onC said:
That doesnt make any sense. If you made a bet (that you think is profitable, why else would you make it?) for the main event, why would you backtrack on that after winning on the earlier fights? You're just donating money to the bookie by paying juice twice and losing EV.

That's like reverse chasing losses lol.
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yeah hedging is usually a pretty bad idea ie paying juice twice = giving more money to the bookies

but brunson/jacare had some free rolling opportunities which is not the same as normal hedging
jacare was up to +130 just before the fight and Brunson was +150 for about a week
 
Down 3.5u...still pissed about the scorecards in some of the fights. Bermudez and Camacho losing cost me big time. I made some money on the Kim robbery but it didn't make up for the other two, and a shit decision is still a shit decision. Hopefully as the sport continues to grow there will be more competent judges around too...and having the same set of rules every night would probably help.
 
iGnP said:
Jacare looks fineeee physically. IDK what all the bickering was about
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People on this forum can cap fights and fighters pretty good, but I'm telling you, the body composition analysis is so piss poor that it's laughable. People either see what they want to see, or they have no idea what they are looking at.
 
I had a bet on every fight and my three losses were Camacho, Bermudez, and Silva. The Bermudez decision was really bad, but I can't bitch too much as I won earlier in the night on Kim. I think the Kim decision was probably the worst decision of the night.
 
UFN 124: -0,78un
UFC 220 + Bellator: -1,425un
UFC ON FOX 27: -2un

<DCrying>
 
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