UFC FN: Jessica Andrade vs. Erin Blanchfield, February 18

This card's a bit of a mess, isn't it? A chaotic, fun, low level mess, but that usually makes enjoyable viewing!

Don't know much about Nadim Sadykhov other than the Afghan guy he fought wasn't DWCS level IMO, and even then he didn't have it all his own way. Elder had a little bit of hype, but ran into Parsons, who will prove legit IMO. Leaning Elder.

Prefer Prachnio against Knight, Knight tends to do better against similar heavy artillery guys, otherwise looks pretty slow. Prachnio has a base level of athleticism that just hasn't shone yet in the UFC, and he probably won't make an impact after such a poor start, but I think he beats guys of this level. His results are all over the place, but even so, I'm backing him here.

Fully expect Hernandez to beat Miller. Hernandez is a guy you have to put a beating on, and most guys fighting Miller seem to mess up by just falling over, slipping, or getting caught with shit they get caught with. Hernandez isn't that green, and while he's finishable, I think he gets Miller out of there fairly early.

And as I've said before, I'm picking Emmers all day, every day until I see something genuine out of Askhabov. His schedule has been abysmal, woeful in fact, and it will definitely factor in, but his camp is a great one and his confidence is presumably sky high. Seeing regional level can crushers in the UFC can either result in a Renan Barao-esque rush to the top (and then straight back down again), or the crusher just looks like shit. I'm expecting Askhabov to be somewhere in the middle, highly skilled, but Emmers is no joke - hence he keeps drawing potential monsters. I'm backing Emmers here, but with Askhabov still able to have a solid career in the UFC once he settles in.

Reckon it could be Fletchers break out party, also.

All that said, wouldn't be surprised to be wrong on every score, because what a ridiculous card this is to work with!
 
Ufc needs to be called out for this horrible card

I bet every single card … but I’m not gunna bet much tomorrow - as it’s an unpredictable joke
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
How does Blanchfield deal with Andrade? Can she big brother her like shev did? I tend to think no and andrade beats her brains in.

andrade has power that not many women have felt and not many are built like Lauren Murphy.

would’ve made a big play on andrade at -125

unfortunately my money is all messed up and my bankroll is basically nothing from losing on these last few mains. Going big on me props trying to win big has been…not good.

That Tex/hill fight burned me up pretty bad. I had withdrew most of my br for bills and lost the remainder on that fight after not being happy only being up a few units going into it.

also had a big chunk on Andrade finishing Murphy. Underestimated Murphy and texeiras unbelievable will and chins.

had bb rd 1 and spivak rds 2 and 3 last week thinking I had it played well. Spivak was just all over him. Good game planning

forced Islam itd yesterday after being down 2 units trying to make something happen. Any bet on Islam was bad

really hinders my style. Sucks but that’s just where I’m at financially right now. I’ll have to make some adjustments and focus on hitting some big plus number props
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Im a die hard that doesn’t miss a card … bet every single card …. Multiple hundreds sometime thousands ….

this card is a trap

don’t bet for the sake of it

i bet a few fights - but not going big here

next week aswell

wait for next ppv - that’s a card to make money on !
 
Money pouring in on Erin. Line even at the moment.

Blaaaah. Ive been on Erin bandwagon and no reason to get out but this just pisses me off.
Pass.
 
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Jinx_AA said:
Ufc needs to be called out for this horrible card

I bet every single card … but I’m not gunna bet much tomorrow - as it’s an unpredictable joke
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Completely agree. This is not an acceptable card. Zero leans whatsoever.
 
Since the ESPN deal there have been shitloads of cards like this though.
I can't understand some things lately though.Money poring in on Ivanov against Tybura.Now on Erin against Andrade.Du Plesis juiced to 1,40 against Brunson,Jones getting juiced by the day,a mistery to me
 
EndlessCritic said:
Completely agree. This is not an acceptable card. Zero leans whatsoever.
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I lean Andrade and I think there might be a little value on Jordan Wright, but I’m not betting this dude. Other than that, Carpenter should win but odds suck.

Crazy how I have one bet for this entire card. It just sucks too much. I’ll live-bet a little I guess.
 
Bakayoko said:
Jones getting juiced by the day
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Public just saw Gane getting outwrestled by Ngannou with no knees and not being a wrestler. Personally think Gane will have no problem defending takedowns against Jones: these athletic freaks can learn very very fast, and he had plenty of time to work on his wrestling. And I don't care how much muscle Jones has put, it's his first fight ever at that weight, he will be at strength disadvantage, or parity at most. But I still pick him to win, he has vastly more experience at championship fights, knows how to be efficient, how to score points (even in bad match-ups) and be safe. It's good style match-up for Jones because Gane needs you to come to him or he isn't that active and assertive, he can be easily lured into point fight, where Jones experience and better volume combined with maybe not a takedown but pushing Gane and clinching him along the fence will help him win this fight. Jones by boring decision most likely.

It's going to be something Makhachev vs. Volkanovski type of shit: Jones will surprise us by being better at striking than expected and Gane will surprise us by being better at wrestling than expected. In the end of the day the guy with deeper skills and way to apply them will win.

Sorry for long, unrelated to the thread post.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
Public just saw Gane getting outwrestled by Ngannou with no knees and not being a wrestler. Personally think Gane will have no problem defending takedowns against Jones: these athletic freaks can learn very very fast, and he had plenty of time to work on his wrestling. And I don't care how much muscle Jones has put, it's his first fight ever at that weight, he will be at strength disadvantage, or parity at most. But I still pick him to win, he has vastly more experience at championship fights, knows how to be efficient, how to score points (even in bad match-ups) and be safe. It's good style match-up for Jones because Gane needs you to come to him or he isn't that active and assertive, he can be easily lured into point fight, where Jones experience and better volume combined with maybe not a takedown but pushing Gane and clinching him along the fence will help him win this fight. Jones by boring decision most likely.

It's going to be something Makhachev vs. Volkanovski type of shit: Jones will surprise us by being better at striking than expected and Gane will surprise us by being better at wrestling than expected. In the end of the day the guy with deeper skills and way to apply them will win.

Sorry for long, unrelated to the thread post.
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You're kind of assuming we see the long, efficient point fighting Jones we saw vs Rampage, Rashad, Glover, etc. The Last two times we saw him in that mode he was gifted a decision vs Dom Reyes and barely eeked out one vs Thaigo Santos who blew his knee out in round 1. He's coming off a 3 year layoff vs a naturally bigger guy who still moves like a LHW and we're gonna just assume we get the best version of Jon? One we haven't seen in what...6 years?

I've been around a long time. I literally watched Jones blossom into the best fighter I've ever seen when at his best. I knew he was something different early on, and got a lot of shit right here on this forum for paying juice on an "unproven kid" vs Shogun in the title fight. And Jones made it look beyond easy.

But that Jones is very likely gone. He's not "old", but nor is he young anymore. He hasn't exactly taken pristine care of himself away from the gym. Give me Gane at dog odds all day in this one. If Jon proves me wrong, well, I guess maybe it livens things up a bit. But paying juice on him in this spot makes no sense.

And because the card today sucks, I only feel a LITTLE badly for helping in the thread derail LOL. But any other talk of fights outside this card I won't post here. Probably.:)
 
sonhow said:
Money pouring in on Erin. Line even at the moment.

Blaaaah. Ive been on Erin bandwagon and no reason to get out but this just pisses me off.
Pass.
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Yeah I read the line movement all wrong on this one lol. Andrade got to as high as -190 on my book Sunday night and while I expected her line to come down some I wasn’t expecting it to fall all the way down to -125.
 
mkess101 said:
You're kind of assuming we see the long, efficient point fighting Jones we saw vs Rampage, Rashad, Glover, etc. The Last two times we saw him in that mode he was gifted a decision vs Dom Reyes and barely eeked out one vs Thaigo Santos who blew his knee out in round 1. He's coming off a 3 year layoff vs a naturally bigger guy who still moves like a LHW and we're gonna just assume we get the best version of Jon? One we haven't seen in what...6 years?

I've been around a long time. I literally watched Jones blossom into the best fighter I've ever seen when at his best. I knew he was something different early on, and got a lot of shit right here on this forum for paying juice on an "unproven kid" vs Shogun in the title fight. And Jones made it look beyond easy.

But that Jones is very likely gone. He's not "old", but nor is he young anymore. He hasn't exactly taken pristine care of himself away from the gym. Give me Gane at dog odds all day in this one. If Jon proves me wrong, well, I guess maybe it livens things up a bit. But paying juice on him in this spot makes no sense.

And because the card today sucks, I only feel a LITTLE badly for helping in the thread derail LOL. But any other talk of fights outside this card I won't post here. Probably.:)
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Don't get too excited...
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Danis_champ said:
Don't get too excited...
FpQw3HgWcAgkhdG.png
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Maybe a little concerning, but I always take this shit with a grain of salt. If he's in a full camp and busting his ass the whole camp...I don't think it's a huge deal that he's not eating/sleeping/breathing fighting the entire time he's out of camp.

Still a shit ton more red flags with Jones right now imo.
 
I'm not saying no to Jessica Andrade at 1.8
 
Macaque said:
I lean Andrade and I think there might be a little value on Jordan Wright, but I’m not betting this dude. Other than that, Carpenter should win but odds suck.

Crazy how I have one bet for this entire card. It just sucks too much. I’ll live-bet a little I guess.
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I ended up just playing all dogs... 0-3 to start the night.
 
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