UFC FN 220 PBP/Discussion

Muniz was winning the round, but he didn't do a thing to stop/reverse it when Allen got on top.
1-1 in my books.
Could easily 2-0 Allen
 
Muniz just decided to be a kick boxer. Need a finish.

i can see Allen given rnd 1
 
Big night cashing Prizepicks thanks to Suarez over fantasy pts, Sakai under, and Muniz unable to get TD's. Fuck DK, Prizepicks is the platform for people who know MMA to actually make $ on fantasy.
 
I always bust on most main events.. im ready to just bet on mismatches .

isolate the bad fighters and bet against them, any remotely competitive fight will end badly almost 50% of the time.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I always bust on most main events.. im ready to just bet on mismatches .

isolate the bad fighters and bet against them, any remotely competitive fight will end badly almost 50% of the time.
Click to expand...


Here's my post from Feb 6th about Jones/Gane (from the General discussion thread) and why I'm betting Gane. Your post made me laugh because...well...have a look haha.




Looking into some future fights on my day off here, and I see value on Gane for sure. I think there are a lot of moving parts on this one, and the line is off because of them.

I think it's a bizarre combination of recency bias and selective memory to a degree. Here's what I mean:

The recency bias is due to Gane being taken down and controlled by Ngannou. I think some may now have the thought that this is "the path" to beating Gane. I think that's a massive oversimplification. I think the success that Francis had with his grappling was in large part due to the fact that Gane didn't for a second think that Frances would ever attempt to make it a grappling match. I think it took him completely off guard, and that element of surprise factored in heavily. I also think that Ngannou's massive size played a role.

With Jones, I think the selective memory comes in because we're all thinking of all the greatness of his past and the potential he maybe still has. What we aren't thinking about is his dogshit performance vs Reyes or his disinterested snoozers vs Santos and Lionheart. The thing to really focus on is that these were his LAST 3 FIGHTS. Now, I think it's probably fair to say distractions and Jones being bored with the division had something to do with that. Still, when we really look at this we're seeing a guy who:

A) Looked anything but dominant in his last 3 fights
B) Hasn't fought in THREE YEARS
C) Is moving up a weight class
D) Is fighting a guy who is not only naturally bigger, but can still move like a LHW

When we factor in all of this...I'm really not sure how Jones should be a slight favorite. I cap Gane around -175 or so. Would I be absolutely stunned if Jones comes in looking terrific and gets the win? No. He's one of the best (maybe THE best when completely on his game) do ever do it. But there are just soooooo many things that need to line up correctly for us to see that version of Jones. I'd rather ride with the true HW with a terrific skillset as a slight dog.
 
mkess101 said:
Here's my post from Feb 6th about Jones/Gane (from the General discussion thread) and why I'm betting Gane. Your post made me laugh because...well...have a look haha.




Looking into some future fights on my day off here, and I see value on Gane for sure. I think there are a lot of moving parts on this one, and the line is off because of them.

I think it's a bizarre combination of recency bias and selective memory to a degree. Here's what I mean:

The recency bias is due to Gane being taken down and controlled by Ngannou. I think some may now have the thought that this is "the path" to beating Gane. I think that's a massive oversimplification. I think the success that Francis had with his grappling was in large part due to the fact that Gane didn't for a second think that Frances would ever attempt to make it a grappling match. I think it took him completely off guard, and that element of surprise factored in heavily. I also think that Ngannou's massive size played a role.

With Jones, I think the selective memory comes in because we're all thinking of all the greatness of his past and the potential he maybe still has. What we aren't thinking about is his dogshit performance vs Reyes or his disinterested snoozers vs Santos and Lionheart. The thing to really focus on is that these were his LAST 3 FIGHTS. Now, I think it's probably fair to say distractions and Jones being bored with the division had something to do with that. Still, when we really look at this we're seeing a guy who:

A) Looked anything but dominant in his last 3 fights
B) Hasn't fought in THREE YEARS
C) Is moving up a weight class
D) Is fighting a guy who is not only naturally bigger, but can still move like a LHW

When we factor in all of this...I'm really not sure how Jones should be a slight favorite. I cap Gane around -175 or so. Would I be absolutely stunned if Jones comes in looking terrific and gets the win? No. He's one of the best (maybe THE best when completely on his game) do ever do it. But there are just soooooo many things that need to line up correctly for us to see that version of Jones. I'd rather ride with the true HW with a terrific skillset as a slight dog.
Click to expand...
. Great minds think alike

But likely will pass both. Jon will likely stand and trade , then we see a game of footsies from distance. i would not be surprised that we see 90% kicks. Occasionally jon will throw jabs and straights and Gane the same. Speed is going to play a factor , Jon has that over Gane. I can’t see Gane catching Jon here with any ko potential.

imo sum it up , it’s going to be a low volume fight with some point fighting.

I give a red checkmark to Jon Jones which is weak leaning. Gane has the chance to take it , 49/51 chance.
 
Stat_Collector said:
. Great minds think alike

But likely will pass both. Jon will likely stand and trade , then we see a game of footsies from distance. i would not be surprised that we see 90% kicks. Occasionally jon will throw jabs and straights and Gane the same. Speed is going to play a factor , Jon has that over Gane. I can’t see Gane catching Jon here with any ko potential.

imo sum it up , it’s going to be a low volume fight with some point fighting.

I give a red checkmark to Jon Jones which is weak leaning. Gane has the chance to take it , 49/51 chance.
Click to expand...

I think it's a big mistake to think that Jon will be faster than Gane here. You have one guy moving up from LHW that may or may not be used to carrying the extra weight. Jon was never even a blazing fast LHW. He used distance/reach, timing, variety of strikes, etc. to get work done. Remember DC was landing a lot on him even in their second fight until Jones landed the head kick. With Gane, you have a HW who moves like a smaller guy. Fluid and pretty quick, not lumbering at all.

I do agree good chance it goes the distance. I just think Gane gets more done. And given that he's +140, it's an easy bet for me. Not a lock obviously, of course he could lose. But the value is there.
 
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