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UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Card, Nov 12, 2021.

  1. lefontes Purple Belt

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    Kang have good sub defense? Yahia is sub on first round or bust. Kang after round 1 is the play.
     
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  2. sonhow Silver Belt

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    I went with Chiesa due to odds but if you look at his record closely enough you'll see a pattern that he tends to shit the bed against a finisher/sub thread and look great against overall talented grapplers. You know the ones who go position over submission/don't work guards too much etc. So he is kind of anomaly fighter to me. The one who makes some weird mmath happen like Chiesa>RDA>Pettis>Chiesa (works with Kevin lee as well) or Chiesa>Miller>Lauzon>Chiesa and all that stuff.
    I'm not sure where Brady falls in this logic.
     
  3. guesswhoseback Purple Belt

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    Yaha is not sub1 or bust lol but yes live bet kang after rd 1 is the smart play now if u said sub or bust id agree with
     
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  4. Thesnake101 Think about it, it worth it.

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    Kang's not gotten tapped since that one time in the regionals, and he engaged in a ground war with doping Tanaka who also managed to go the distance with Yahya, so I'd say it should be good enough to survive a few scares and take over.

    Really, Rani's only been tapping really low-level/dumb fighters for the most part, granted that's usually who he's matched up with, so what can you do? I thought he should have gotten Rodriguez out of there earlier than he did, so I think the wheels are finally coming off now.
     
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  5. Black Paladin Funniest Sherdogger, P4P

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    Chiesa is the UFC Ouroboros
     
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  6. GoldenWolf87 Black Belt

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    Co Main Event is going to be some great fire!
     
  7. GoldenWolf87 Black Belt

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    Yaha is always for me at least has being a round one. Take Round one. This is a fight that Yahia wanted. We shall see if he will prove the doubters wrong tomorrow.
     
  8. The Disasters White Belt

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    I know McKinney is round 1 or bust but with the terrible takedown defense for Ziam, I'm not sure why Ziam is the chalk. Medium bet for me there and small on McKinney by sub since I think the easier route to victory is the quick takedown and submission rather than the one-punch KO.

    I'm the opposite on Durden/Aori. I think Aori can avoid Durden for a round and then when he gasses out take over with volume. I think the price is right on the dog there.

    And finally, Loma Lookboonmee, with her thai plum and movement, I think she can avoid a lot of the takedowns and hop right back up when she does get taken down. I'm a big Loopy fan but I think the style matchup here leans towards Loma and again, the price was right.
     
  9. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    Yeah, comparing fan bets vs Vegas, McKinney is an anomaly.

    Fan votes have him really high, but Vegas ain't buying into it.

    It'll be interesting to see how that plays out.

    EDIT: Levy is even moreso. Vegas has him as an underdog, but a majority of people are picking him.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
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  10. The Disasters White Belt

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    I thought long and hard on Levy but there are just too many unknowns in that fight and the prices didn't justify the amount of uncertainty for me. If I had +125 or so I'd have played him small.
     
  11. Thesnake101 Think about it, it worth it.

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    Ha, I'm pretty much in the opposite camp when it comes to McKinney/Ziam and Durden/Aori. With Terrance, I think he'll be too sloppy with whatever approach he chooses, and will end up either getting caught with something, or outworked down the stretch.

    Durden I think will be good enough to either choke Aori early, or at the very least be able to ground him often enough to get a decision win. Though I do agree that his price isn't too appealing for as flawed as he is, I did chuck his sub line on a couple silly parlays for the hell of it since it's at a staggering +570.
     
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  12. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Chiesa really is gigantic Jesus Christ
     
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  13. Macaque Blue Belt

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    Eventually he’s gonna move up to heavyweight and dwarf Ciryl Gane
     
  14. Post 2 Decision Gold Belt

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    Haven't had a lot of time this week to dig into this card, but I like a bunch of dogs here.

    Brady/Chiesa I'm torn, so I'll take Chiesa as a dog

    Loma as a dog looks fun, I worry about the size difference but I always do with Loma fights and it's never really a problem.

    Why is Jojo +275? Last I checked, Santos was dogshit... What am I missing? She gonna take Jojo down and sub her easy?

    Anyone got a read on Lutz/Sabitini? I'm split again, don't remember much of Tucker Lutz.

    I like Ziam if he escapes round 1 obvs

    Might take a stab at Hughes because Pinheiro is a pretender, just don't think Hughes is good though
     
  15. Kazda1 Orange Belt

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    Man this Calderwood/Santos fight is the worst. I looked up several stats prior to doing some taping and let me say that Calderwood is everything on paper you'd want to bet on. That is, until you see how she looks in the cage. Part of what sucks is that sometimes I think some fighters don't understand the part of what comes along with winning a decision is the ability to sell it to the judges. This is obviously when the fight is close. As much as the stats say she lands punches, it doesn't look like she is doing much in there. It's easy to see why she loses these close decisions.

    OTOH, Santos is a horrible striker and Calderwood in theory should give her tons of problems (if she didn't tire and actually did more instead of being so flat footed). Santos herself gets tagged a bit and has shown the propensity to get stuck on bottom without trying to get up, as shown some against Robertson and the loss to Borella.

    I was thinking I'd drop something on the Calderwood decision line, but this one's a pass for me. Back to the NFL.
     
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  16. sonhow Silver Belt

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    Are you guys confusing Santos with somebody else? She has pretty much won every significant minute of every fight shes been in after returning. Gillian held her down a bit but she ended up losing a lopsided decision. Roxxy had nothing for her. Id like to see JoJo win but she tends to lose decisions to fighters that manage to bully her around.
     
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  17. I think the consensus parlay of the weekend, not just for this forum but for other cappers I know as well, is Yanez/Santos.

    I can't pay the price tag on Santos, if anything, I'd play FGTD. JoJo dec @ +400 may have some value as well, but I'm personally passing on it.

    There are 3 more fight cards this year, all of which I have stronger leans on than anything on this card.
     
  18. sonhow Silver Belt

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    My only strongish lean is Ziam but not enough for recomending anyone to tail. Agree its a hard card to cap I did fine on last two ppvs but last weeks fight night went horrible for me due to prop hunt(never ever again untill next time)
     
  19. Bakayoko Orange Belt

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    I believe in Yahya,think he probably takes it by sub,but I can see him win a DEC.Kang has struggled with lesser fighters in the past,unless Yahya has agged overnight he should take this,that being said I'm not so confident that I lay a bigger bet.
    I agree Santos is the best parlay piece in the card.Probably gonna sub JoJo.
    I like over 1,5 in the Yanez fight despite the apex,Grant is not easy to put out and I expect them to come at a slower pace.
    Looma has value,definitely.Fight goes the distance probably.
    ME O 1,5 I'll take too as a parlay piece as I think it hits 90-95% of time.
     
  20. 2020Tracked Green Belt

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    People betting Calderwood but not betting Davey Grant don't make sense
     

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