UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate

Guld said:
It was a knockdown in my books
jake-matthews-of-australia-punches-sean-brady-in-their-welterweight-picture-id1305712533
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See how he’s holding the leg? He caught a leg kick and the punch made him fall over. It wasn’t because he was rocked; more of a sweep.
 
Initially said:
There's a lot of recency bias coming into play for Chiesa/Brady.

Chiesa was the favorite over Vincente fuckin' Luque in their last fight.

He took him down with ease, had a dominant position, and went for submission over position, got reversed, and choked out shortly after.

Chiessa has commented himself how he manages to throw a lot of fights that he's winning.

I think this should be a pick'em. Brady has just plain bad stand-up. Chiesa isn't a god tier striker, but he did drop Masvidal back in the day, and is competent enough on the feet.

Brady also tends to slow down in fights. Yeah, he finished Matthews late, but was tired irregardless. Chiesa is a HUGE WW, and he's levels above anyone Brady has faced before.

The problem with both of these fighters is that they tend to accept bottom position. So I could see whoever gets the first TD of each round just keeping it there until the round ends.

I think Chiesa ML is the play @ the current odds.

I like Tate a lot too, because Viera has fucking awful cardio. Sean Brady dropped rd3 versus McGee and looked winded, but in EVERY Viera fight, she fades.

Will probably play Tate ITD and look to LB her after r1.

But I bet on Rothwell so maybe take what I say with a grain of salt until I prove myself again.
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He was a favourite/pick'em with Luque because it was a totally different style match up with on paper and in tape looked fairly binary.

This fight isn't anything like that fight
 
2020Tracked said:
He was a favourite/pick'em with Luque because it was a totally different style match up with on paper and in tape looked fairly binary.

This fight isn't anything like that fight
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Bruh.
Luque's striking is on another level than Sean fucking Brady and he was in deep deep fucking shit against Chiesa. Luque would literally end Sean Brady. We are getting a ton of recency bias on this line and a hype train derail seems very, very likely.
 
guesswhoseback said:
Another big bet for you?
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Initially I thought I would drop a nice fat dime piece on Chiesa but put it on Pats -9.5 last night (sold some points) and made out like a bandit. I'll probably take most of those profits and take the Cowboys to win straight up this weekend instead.

Chiesa can't be trusted and I don't think Brady deserves the juice so its probably just date night with the wife.
 
TrueAscension said:
Initially I thought I would drop a nice fat dime piece on Chiesa but put it on Pats -9.5 last night (sold some points) and made out like a bandit. I'll probably take most of those profits and take the Cowboys to win straight up this weekend instead.

Chiesa can't be trusted and I don't think Brady deserves the juice so its probably just date night with the wife.
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The last paragraph is what people should look at here. There have to be better spots than this fight. It's a fight to just enjoy as a a fan.
 
mkess101 said:
The last paragraph is what people should look at here. There have to be better spots than this fight. It's a fight to just enjoy as a a fan.
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Pretty much, I might punt a few bucks its way if I do good on other fights, otherwise I ain't touching it.

And that's even doubtful since I'll be away on a birthday. Don't want to just be glued on my phone waiting to see if a bet cashes or not, seems kinda rude.

Not to mention that it might sour the mood if I start losing my shit due to a bad call or something, lol.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Pretty much, I might punt a few bucks its way if I do good on other fights, otherwise I ain't touching it.

And that's even doubtful since I'll be away on a birthday. Don't want to just be glued on my phone waiting to see if a bet cashes or not, seems kinda rude.

Not to mention that it might sour the mood if I start losing my shit due to a bad call or something, lol.
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Yeah I'll be at my daughter's swim meet. May be home by the time the main card but not sure. I agree, being at another thing but being obsessed about bets is not cool. Once I'm home and watching, different story haha.
 
What's the best return on the Yanez/Grant fight?
Over 1.5 rounds?
 
Alright, I was pretty confident in that one, but I figured I'd get some Sherbro backup/reassurance haha.
I'll add that to my initial bets.
I'm actually pulling back/withdrawing a lot of my bets, and will make them live bets instead.
My heaviest bet currently is actually on Tate to win (with a side bet on her to get the stoppage)
I've never rooted for Cupcake so much in my life haha.
 
Tate looked bigger/taller than I expected. Santos looked smaller/JoJo looked bigger.
I'll go watch the tape and see if anything seems sus.
 
Coupled Lutz/Sabatini over 2.5 with Yanez/Grant over 1.5 for some plus odds. Think it's unlikely Pat gets another early leg lock against someone that seems to have a working brain.

Tucker is live imo, but he's also not someone that does much to separate himself from his opponent, and can slow down late.
 
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