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UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Card, Nov 12, 2021.

  1. TrueAscension Brown Belt

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    Jake Matthews knocked him down and then pulled guard like a moron. I didn’t see anything from that performance that makes me think Brady’s some sort of elite fighter at all. He looks like he could choke someone to death and he’s built like a brick shithouse but I found his striking super underwhelming and his striking defense really not great at all.
    He’s got a hell of a squeeze for sure but for a fighter in Chiesa who very nearly put away Luque before making a blunder I just don’t understand the odds.

    I’m genuinely curious and looking for a reason not to unload on Chiesa here
     
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  2. GoldenWolf87 Red Belt

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    I wrote the co main event late sorry about that. What i meant was if Brady has a good game plan on Saturday's fight to keep off Chiesa his side.
    Brady could likely get a ITD whichever that one might occur either through by sub or TKO.

    For Chiesa i think he wins through by decision as he wins recently had being through decs.Chiesa could get a ITD by sub if he finds a weakness in Sean Brady's game.
    If the fight continues to the third without a finish it will likely end up at the scoreboard.

    Sean Brady is still a new hype to the UFC. This is a great fight match up for both of them. To bad it wasn't on the main event.

    I dont hate Yanez by tko.
     
  3. There's a lot of recency bias coming into play for Chiesa/Brady.

    Chiesa was the favorite over Vincente fuckin' Luque in their last fight.

    He took him down with ease, had a dominant position, and went for submission over position, got reversed, and choked out shortly after.

    Chiessa has commented himself how he manages to throw a lot of fights that he's winning.

    I think this should be a pick'em. Brady has just plain bad stand-up. Chiesa isn't a god tier striker, but he did drop Masvidal back in the day, and is competent enough on the feet.

    Brady also tends to slow down in fights. Yeah, he finished Matthews late, but was tired irregardless. Chiesa is a HUGE WW, and he's levels above anyone Brady has faced before.

    The problem with both of these fighters is that they tend to accept bottom position. So I could see whoever gets the first TD of each round just keeping it there until the round ends.

    I think Chiesa ML is the play @ the current odds.

    I like Tate a lot too, because Viera has fucking awful cardio. Sean Brady dropped rd3 versus McGee and looked winded, but in EVERY Viera fight, she fades.

    Will probably play Tate ITD and look to LB her after r1.

    But I bet on Rothwell so maybe take what I say with a grain of salt until I prove myself again.
     
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  4. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    I honestly don't think Brady is elite. Far from it. His striking defense and chin look suspect, and if he loses this fight with Chiesa I suspect that will be the reason it happens. I also don't think he has the cardio for 5 rounds either.(although that won't matter for this one)

    I think it's more a case of Brady just being better than Chiesa (in wrestling). Chiesa has good cardio, and some stiffling offensive grappling/submission attempts. But he almost always seems to favor sub over position. His defensive grappling is pretty awful, and his refusal to fight submission attempts at all is down right infuriating haha. Sean seems to be great at stuffing takedown attempts, and is comfortable doing his own. He is also very aware of grappling position and if this does turn into a ground affair I can't imagine it will be long before he has dominant top control. From there it's just a matter of time before Chiesa wilts/loses rounds, or leaves himself vulnerable to be subbed.

    So I imagine it stays standing for a little while, and once one of them gets tagged they will try to close the distance/do a takedown. At that point I think Sean will prove why he is the favorite, because even if Chiesa initiates the takedown I think Sean will reverse it and then it will look similar to Chiesa's fight with Kevin Lee.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2021
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  5. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    I agree with almost all of this. I especially agree that Tate seems like a great bet, and maybe doing it after the first round is a better plan because Vieira could easily win the first round or two before she gasses out.

    What fight(s) did Brady accept bottom position?
     
  6. guesswhoseback Double Yellow Card Double Yellow Card

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    Another big bet for you?
     
  7. Stat_Collector Green Belt Platinum Member

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    These are the red flags on Santos and why I dont like her as a huge favorite.

    1. The thing about Santos is her top game is suspect. She has had trouble keeping girls down, she loses the top control several times against Roxanne. The two girls she did keep down, Robertson and Molly where at a size disadvantage. Both Borella and Roxanne were the same size as Santos and they kept springing back on their feet, the difference between Joanna and those two is the gap between striking, she has 22 kick boxing matches to add to that experience .

    2. Santos has a can stacked record. her first 13 fights had a combine record of 7-11 combine. And most of them went on to go 1-10 0-11
    Compared to Joanna who was fighting fighters with wins and solid records from the beginning. Some people will say I'm just wiki posting, but truth is YOU ARE your record. Who you beat shows where your talents are, and not a single fighter on her resume have a solid striking skillset. Judos, bjj and older fighters. Joanna is a strong test, not a stepping stone. If you chop off her cans from the record, her real record is 4-1 ...

    Just compare their resumes.
    Taila Santos | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology
    Joanne Wood ("JoJo") | MMA Fighter Page | Tapology

    3. Santos is not a finisher. All of her kos where low rated opponents. She has never finished a single ufc fighter.Giving Joanna 15 minutes to regroup and strategies and comeback favors the season veteran more than it does the newbie.

    4. Joanna is a grappler herself. She has 16 takedowns in the ufc alone, her clinch is strong and she has a good knees from the clinch that is a grapplers worst nightmare.

    5. And last but not least is Joanna is ranked higher and had a split hair with the number two, she was inline for a title shot. She has a fun attitude when it comes to fighting because she is not a timid fighter, she is the type that doesn't get nervous and fights loose. That is why she criticized Lauren Murphy's performance against Valentina. So i dont think she has a weak mindset, she just means that she likes to take chances and not fight scared or timid.

    So I want to be clear, I'm not playing Joanna, she is inconsistent, loses to fighters she should not lose to. But Santos has the same curse when she lost to Borrella. While she may have improved and be very focused, I still haven't been shown enough evidence that she knows how to deal with adversity, we dont know if she is just another Phil Hawes who gets cracked and doesn't recover easily. I want to see how this fight works out, but there is too many red flags for me, so that is my two cents.
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2021
  8. Main_Card_MMA All it takes is one and there are at least two.

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    Excellent stuff, thanks. It's definitely wide as hell now and I could see a small play on Wood being worth a shot. She's up to +290 at some books.
     
  9. Stat_Collector Green Belt Platinum Member

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    I think i just convinced myself to sprinkle a decision bet, I missed out on Rose decision last time, if its at 500+ i think i'll throw a 50$ dollar wager.
     
  10. BigSteve Purple Belt

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    2c rest of the card:

    Garcia/Levy: Tough fight. At first I was on Garcia as a dog after taping Levy and seeing him go tooth and nail against regional bums. His opponent on Contender is his best win but I'm not so sure he is anything special either. Iv seen him rocked, reversed and taken down with ease. Garcia will have no trouble taking Levy down but he will then enter his game. Iv seen Garcia sweped like 3 times against that can Gonzales. I also have questions about his takedown defence. The more time passes the more I lean with Levy. Garcia is primarily a boxer and I think if he pressures he will get taken down and then we enter a sloppy grappling fest. Passing at these odds.

    Lutz/Pat: Close fight. At first I wasent impressed with Lutz, seemed hittable and stiff and kind of green. He seems to have a nice lil game going for him. He throws some nice combinations when he lets his hands go, although they all seem like arm punches. He leg kicks a lot as well but mostly naked. He gets countered a bit since he has no headmovement but the chin seems solid. Pat reminds me of Brady, think they are from the same gym both Gracie black belts. I'm not impressed with Pats wrestling he is mostly a grinder. Lutz is also a black belt, big, strong and good at digging underhooks. There's some questions about his game off his back but he seems hard to hold down. I think this ends up being a very close stand-up fight, with a lot of cage fighting potentially. If anyone is going to get a sub its probably Pat, but I see this going to a Dec more often then not. Lutz can get his own takedowns to steal rounds and stay safe on top. Lutz DEC has a lil value since I think that's the only way he's winning, otherwise dog or pass at earlier odds.

    Yanez/Grant:
    Old mate Davey sure if dangerous recently. Both of his KOs have come with the same combo while his opponent was trying to hook at the same time. Don't hook with a hooker they say. Both Day and Martinez are a bit chinny in my opinion. Also both dropped him in the first round. Davey is very hittable, he throws everything from the hip and the chin there for the counter. I passed on Yanez at similar odds v Lopez due to the wrestling and power threat. Yanez came out very patient though I was impressed. Even though Lopez only has a wild overhand, Yanez took no risks. He is good with rolling with the punches and parring and then countering. I dont know if he wants to chill in the pocked trying to roll with those hooks coming from the hips. He will most likely stick to jabs and straight punches early, and wait for one big opening to crack Grant clean. Yanez had some advertising v Costa but costa had 3 inches on both Yanez and Grant and was spamming the jab. Grant barely throws anything straight like that. Grant also slows down a lot in the third, pretty much always loses that round. Probably not much value on Yanez although im desperate for some parley pieces so will use him.

    Santos/JoJo: Not much to break down here. JoJo probably gets taken down and ground out. Santos DEC is pretty average, plus I cant trust JoJo not to shit the bed and get subbed. Like a lot of WMMA fighters, she can't defend a basic armbar from guard. She is ok at fighting off takedowns against the cage, at least she looked that way against Murphy and Eye who are pretty average wrestlers. When Murphy did take her down in the second some media members thought it was a 10-8 lol. Santos is a very strong-most her takedown come against the cage, body locks, and trips. JoJo has no power she essentially has to win a 3 round striking dec. She could with her volume but Santos has decent striking too. I see some people mentioning lvl of competition and how JoJo would smash everyone Santos smashed. All I can do is laugh at that, someone like Roxy and Jilian are horrendous matchups for a 35-year-old JoJo. Jilian probably subs her.

    Yaha/Kang: Was passing on this originaly and im passing again. Kang has physical advantages, bigger reach more explosive. He can crack too he hurt Davis and his last opponent, both those were splits I dont know why. The problem is Yaha does have good wrestling early, and he will go for it at a high clip. Kang seems to have a decent defence but then engages in the grappling, gets mount or back control and then gets reversed. Fight with Tanak is a good example, it went to another split. No doubt Yaha can do the same. Il keep it short and just say pass or live bet Kang later.

    Chiesa/Brady: Dog or pass for me here. Brady needs to prove himself before I can lay this price on him v Chisea. He is going to be giving Chiesa the exact fight he wants. Both are green in the standup, Brady backs up all the time against the cage. Brady is a grinder, he has better top control, and potentially better takedown defence. Chiesa gives up good positions to worse grapplers all the time, but if this goes to a grapple heavy decision I can't be on the favourite. Specially when he is giving up rounds to fighters like McGee and Naurdiev.

    Tate/Viera: Tate is the play for me here purley due to the 5 rounds. I dug deep into this one just so I could make the shit main event interesting. Viera might win the first and second due to her clubbing hands and how hittable and green Tate is with her defence still. She was dropped by McMann, and Renau was still tagging her early all these years later. But she is a dog, great cardio, chin and can turn it on late, specialy when she is losing. Viera might be a dog early but the longer the fight goes the less effective she becomes. She for sure got robbed gainst Yana, but its because she did nothing with her top time. She got stood up against Sarj as well for lack of activity. So early she might win the standup, get some top time, not do much with it, but when Tate bites down and starts pressuring she will start getting off on her and get her own takedowns even though her wrestling is pretty average. Il sprinkels Miesha 4,5 DEC and potentially live bet as well.
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2021
  11. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    Chiesa's striking has actually regressed imo. And I like the guy. Bet him at dog odds vs Luque and loved the play. But he's literally now just bouncing side to side throwing the occasional punch but nonstop looking for the chance to rush in and get the clinch. Which is fine, but it's made his ability to actually do anything standing almost non-existent. Brady is nothing special standing at all either though. But he will at least attempt to land combos even if they don't look very fluid.

    A lot of fights between grapplers end up as boring stand up sparring matches. Hope we don't see that here...
     
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  12. Thesnake101 Think about it, it worth it.

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    Kang's ML, or Dec line is a no-brainer, right? Yahya's gas tank is downright horrendous, and Kyung should be good enough to mitigate Rani's grappling advantage before scoring with the striking and running away with it, I think.
     
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  13. magpie878 White Belt

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    Because he self-admittedly blows fights he's winning and makes stupid blunders?

    You can bet him, sure... but that's pretty solid reasoning not to "unload".
     
  14. Macaque Blue Belt

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    From what I remember it was more like Brady got bundled over than a knockdown but I’d have to rewatch
     
  15. Thesnake101 Think about it, it worth it.

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    Saw this on tapology, Brady via sub is a lock confirmed.

    7ggxk9zlhol71.jpg
     
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  16. kushn4pushin Orange Belt

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    upload_2021-11-18_12-58-37.gif
     
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  17. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    It was a knockdown in my books
    [​IMG]
     
  18. svmr_db Brown Belt Platinum Member

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    Ehhh go watch the fight, Brady got his kick caught by Matthews then he landed that, he was a bit off balance so nowhere near as devastating as that picture out of context implies.
     
  19. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    I did watch the fight. It was a combo of the two for sure. Brady recovered remarkably well regardless.
    He (Brady) does seem to get stunned by strikes fairly frequently. I don't think Chiesa is the guy to do it, but I have a feeling he's gonna struggle with anybody with legit heavy hands.
     
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  20. SeaBiscuit159 sagessoup

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    disagree. may not be the most exciting, but definitely not the worst. sean vs michael is pretty good, and honestly, it will be cool to see miesha climb back up the rankings
     

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