UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate

[mkess101]

Why have so much confidence in Chiesa? Wins over Magny, undersized RDA & washed Sanchez & Condit impressed you that much?

Magny's a pretty good grappler, that one is fairly impressive.

That said I'm not confident at all in Chiesa vs Brady. I think it's a really interesting fight, either guy can win. I slightly favor Brady but wouldn't be shocked at all if Mike grinds him out.

 

[Siver!]

McKinney throws stupidly hard all the time, he often loses his footing from throwing so hard. Depends if Ziam can deal with the explosive aggression.

Totally agree!

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I think for the card I like Miesha as a slight dog as she seems absolutely all in on this return and I don't think Ketlen is that great really. The biggest positive memory I have of her is her outgrappling McMann, but then Miesha also did that.

Also playing Loma. I love Loopy, but I think she's going to get tripped in the clinch a lot here.

 

[Thesnake101]

Magny's a pretty good grappler, that one is fairly impressive.

That said I'm not confident at all in Chiesa vs Brady. I think it's a really interesting fight, either guy can win. I slightly favor Brady but wouldn't be shocked at all if Mike grinds him out.

Magny's is good offensively, but he's pretty much always lost to stronger grapplers handily whenever he's faced them.

Chiesa/Brady is not a fight I'd be too confident about either way. Both guys are taking on guys that can match their physicality, so technique might be what sets them apart if we don't get a KB fight. I think Brady can take that since Chiesa is not above making mistakes on the mat, and is a slow starter more often than not.

 

[Dooze]

I'm not hugely confident either way but I'm very interested in the Chiesa/Brady fight. I might play the over depending on where it settles and if the line continues to widen probably take a punt on Chiesa or Chiesa by decision if it gets juicy enough.

On the feet Brady has the edge although I wouldn't expect to see him KO Chiesa there. I think Chiesa likely has the better cardio as he's proven at 170 he's shook off his cardio issues from 155 and proven he can sustain grappling for 25 minutes, and I vaguely remember Brady slowing down in the second half of his McGee fight due to Courts forward pressure - something I expect Chiesa to implement.

Both are strong guys so they might cancel each other out a bit - I imagine if that happens it'll be a lot of clinchwork against the fence which I think would slow Brady down more given he looks like he's carrying a fair bit more muscle than Chiesa who has filled out but is definitely leaner rather than just a ball of muscle - I think if it's clinch heavy those grappling exchanges will drain more on Brady, especially if he's got his back against the cage for long portions and Chiesa's making him carry his weight.

My main concern with Chiesa is if he gets taken down I think Brady might be good enough to keep him down for stretches and that arm triangle is something that he'd be at risk at. Brady's a powerful guy and got a great squeeze and we've seen Chiesa lose to a couple of chokes.

I'd probably be more confident in Chiesa if this was a 5 round fight, but if the odds drift enough I'll happily take him or the over I think. I think either the first round is probably Brady while he's at his freshest or a close one either way if it's a lot of clinch work - I'd be impressed if Chiesa comes out and outgrapples Brady from the off but I think as the fight goes unless Brady has absolutely smashed him in r1 Chiesa might start to take over second half for a 29-28.

Anyone know what Brady is like off his back? Don't recall seeing it much.

 

[TrueAscension]

Why have so much confidence in Chiesa? Wins over Magny, undersized RDA & washed Sanchez & Condit impressed you that much?

Chiesa has fought far better competition than Brady bro. Which win convinced you Brady is worthy of being a favorite?

 

[mkess101]

Magny's is good offensively, but he's pretty much always lost to stronger grapplers handily whenever he's faced them.

Chiesa/Brady is not a fight I'd be too confident about either way. Both guys are taking on guys that can match their physicality, so technique might be what sets them apart if we don't get a KB fight. I think Brady can take that since Chiesa is not above making mistakes on the mat, and is a slow starter more often than not.

Magny outgrappled Gastelum, reversing him multiple times off his back. I think he's pretty capable everywhere (not special maybe, but pretty good) which is why I was at least mildly surprised at how easily Chiesa handled him.

Agree on the fight though...I wouldn't be confident in either Chiesa or Brady here. Pass imo.

 

[Guld]

I think Brady takes it, but Chiesa definitely has a path to victory and I wouldn't be surprised one bit if he pulls it off.

 

[StewDogg11]

Chiesa has fought far better competition than Brady bro. Which win convinced you Brady is worthy of being a favorite?

And lost to most of them. Who has he beat that Brady would lose to?

 

[Stat_Collector]

Brady 150% confidence. Too many tools, and has the bjj to cancel Chiesa. Chiesa doesnt have the striking to nulify brady, brady just has to stay on his feet and body up chiesa. perfect style matchup for brady.

 

[Thesnake101]

Magny outgrappled Gastelum, reversing him multiple times off his back. I think he's pretty capable everywhere (not special maybe, but pretty good) which is why I was at least mildly surprised at how easily Chiesa handled him.

Agree on the fight though...I wouldn't be confident in either Chiesa or Brady here. Pass imo.

I don't know if I'd call Gastelum a strong grappler tbh, he's obviously a good wrestler, but I don't know about his overall grappling. I mean, Izzy forced him to back off when he finally managed to get him down, granted that was late in a hellish fight.

I was more so thinking back to when RDA carved through Neil in record time. He's tricky, but that's about it - guys with stronger fundamentals eat him. Now, this fight will tell us if Brady would be at that level or not.

 

[mkess101]

I don't know if I'd call Gastelum a strong grappler tbh, he's obviously a good wrestler, but I don't know about his overall grappling. I mean, Izzy forced him to back off when he finally managed to get him down, granted that was late in a hellish fight.

I was more so thinking back to when RDA carved through Neil in record time. He's tricky, but that's about it - guys with stronger fundamentals eat him. Now, this fight will tell us if Brady would be at that level or not.

Fair point about RDA. Kelvin is a good grappler and I guess I was also thinking that was at WW where Kelvin was one of the bigger guys in the weight class (as opposed to him being undersized at 185 because he likes eating and won't cut weight). Magny being able to sweep and outgrapple a bigger guy who's a good grappler was impressive to me.

I think Brady is likely at or close to that level of grappler but I wonder about his gas tank. I just don't know what happens if he tires later in the fight and he's the one that ends up with Chiesa on top of him.

 

[Siver!]

Yalin Sha vs Sean Soriano could be a set up.

Bisping described Sha as a 'wrestler, highly ranked out of China', and he INSTANTLY closed distance on Culibao, who is a very good fighter with a deceptive record.

Sha dominated the first round, but didn't really bother Culibao, and quickly ran out of energy. Culibao has never been submitted and won't be for a while, he's better than that, and he grew in confidence, but Yalin Sha STILL got him pressed to the cage - that's his MO, that's what he'll try and do against Soriano.

Yalin Sha is a top position guy with a number of submissions and TKO's against weak opposition. It's hard to find too much tape on the guy, but he subbed Georgian Kikadze Bondo, and he's not bad...

Soriano, by contrast, has a major weakness in terms of submissions, and constantly seems to find himself on the ground. He's been submitted by total journeymen (Bruce Boyington sounds like he's made up), and invariably loses with his back on the mat. He gets finished A LOT.

The key question is, is Yalin Sha actually talented enough to be here or not? But as such a one dimensional wrestler, I think he has a really good chance against Soriano, whose kryptonite is... wrestling and submissions.

 

[TrueAscension]

Legit question here. Which fight should I be watching to see where Brady is some second coming of Chris Weidman because I am not understanding the hype at all with the tape I’m seeing.

 

[Macaque]

Legit question here. Which fight should I be watching to see where Brady is some second coming of Chris Weidman because I am not understanding the hype at all with the tape I’m seeing.

He looked really good against Jake Matthews, but looked human against Naurdiev and McGee.

Meanwhile, Weidman is a guy who I’d favor over any middleweight ever, probably.

 

[BigSteve]

He looked really good against Jake Matthews, but looked human against Naurdiev and McGee.

Meanwhile, Weidman is a guy who I’d favor over any middleweight ever, probably.

Mathews is also trash and has been babied throughout his UFC career. Hes from my town here in Australia and you could really see the difference in his black belt and a Gracie black belt

 

[mkess101]

Legit question here. Which fight should I be watching to see where Brady is some second coming of Chris Weidman because I am not understanding the hype at all with the tape I’m seeing.

That's a stretch for sure that he's Weidman, but the eye test tells me he's pretty good. But there's absolutely questions to be answered. I want to see how he deals with a massive WW who wants to grapple him and who has had plenty of success putting guys on their back and dominating them on the mat.

 

[Thesnake101]

Yalin Sha vs Sean Soriano could be a set up.

Bisping described Sha as a 'wrestler, highly ranked out of China', and he INSTANTLY closed distance on Culibao, who is a very good fighter with a deceptive record.

Sha dominated the first round, but didn't really bother Culibao, and quickly ran out of energy. Culibao has never been submitted and won't be for a while, he's better than that, and he grew in confidence, but Yalin Sha STILL got him pressed to the cage - that's his MO, that's what he'll try and do against Soriano.

Yalin Sha is a top position guy with a number of submissions and TKO's against weak opposition. It's hard to find too much tape on the guy, but he subbed Georgian Kikadze Bondo, and he's not bad...

Soriano, by contrast, has a major weakness in terms of submissions, and constantly seems to find himself on the ground. He's been submitted by total journeymen (Bruce Boyington sounds like he's made up), and invariably loses with his back on the mat. He gets finished A LOT.

The key question is, is Yalin Sha actually talented enough to be here or not? But as such a one dimensional wrestler, I think he has a really good chance against Soriano, whose kryptonite is... wrestling and submissions.

Just bet FDGTD mang. Soriano ain't worth the price tag, and a chinese underdog is hardly worth the risk.

Personally, I flirted with Soriano by KO, but that's a guy I wouldn't trust.

 

[Macaque]

Mathews is also trash and has been babied throughout his UFC career. Hes from my town here in Australia and you could really see the difference in his black belt and a Gracie black belt

Do you know who gave him his black belt? He really doesn’t seem like someone deserving of one.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

Just from a resume perspective she is not worth the juice-350 is overblown. Joanna has more than twice the ufc experience and has fought with better tier competition. She would smoke the girls santos fought. I cant say the same for santos, not that she is not good, but she is unproven. Her loss to morrela tells me she has bad nights too, she was a heavy favorite in that fight and lost, so dont let her record full you, she has yet to prove she can beat a fighter like joanna , im not saying she’ll lose, but im not going to throw my money on this experiment. If she bests joanna, then I’ll bet on her in the future against girls like andrea lee etc. Joanna on the other hand has beaten better opp and has muay thai credentials. Her biggest flaw is reliance on leg kicks that dont count for chit in judges, she can get grounded , but her striking volume is so high that santos is going to have to win a few exchanges or else the judges may not care about the 2 or 3 minutes of ground control when joanna is landing 35 strikes per round. Which she has done to Murphy, chookagian and andrea lee.

Yeah, Wood is a solid striker, but she can get outgrappled pretty easily. That body lock throw is gonna be a real problem for her and I don't think she can avoid the clinch. The line is wide now and Santos DEC at -120 is barely worth a play, but when Santos was -250 or so she was a decent play. Hope I don't look foolish with this analysis. I do think Wood gives up her back a bit and could get subbed.

Here are my some predictions for this fight card.
The co main event should be a fun one to target for bets.
Co Main Event Sean Brady vs Michael Chiesa problary ITD/Dec.This one would likely go to a ITD a likely dec if either one of them does more of the TDs"

So, uh, you think two grapplers are gonna go for tds? Maybe? I mean, it could be one of those "trying to avoid each others' game" kind of fights which means you think Brady by TKO, right? Or do you think Chiesa is gonna win by TKO? Maybe Brady gets a standing arm triangle or rnc or something? Or Chiesa does? I'm just trying to understand what you mean by this. Is English your second language?

Anyone know how legit Yanez's black belt is? I couldn't find much about the guy except that he got the grade less than a year ago. I'm not saying Grant is some bjj wiz, but he can wrestle a bit and if he fights smart he'll take Yanez down and try to tire him out a bit. Those bolo punches come from weird angles and could rip the body pretty bad, but Grant is gonna eat some hard punches in the meantime. I doubt Grant's chin holds up. Maybe Yanez TKO and Grant DEC to get plus money on both sides, but Yanez ITD could be a better play.