UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate

Holz37 said:
McKinney v Ziam
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Big on Ziam in that one.

McKinney is a wild man, Ziam is pretty technical, I doubt McKinney gets another sub-60 second KO, I'm pretty confident he gets taken down and worked over for most of the fight.

He's a bit of a freak athlete is McKinney, so it will be competitive, he might just get up a time or two, but I just don't see McKinney finishing Ziam. Every time Ziam has been finished, it's a sub - McKinney just doesn't have that in him.

It could go the distance for Ziam, or Ziam subs McKinney. I actually think Ziam taps him in the first or second.
 
Siver! said:
Big on Ziam in that one.

McKinney is a wild man, Ziam is pretty technical, I doubt McKinney gets another sub-60 second KO, I'm pretty confident he gets taken down and worked over for most of the fight.

He's a bit of a freak athlete is McKinney, so it will be competitive, he might just get up a time or two, but I just don't see McKinney finishing Ziam. Every time Ziam has been finished, it's a sub - McKinney just doesn't have that in him.

It could go the distance for Ziam, or Ziam subs McKinney. I actually think Ziam taps him in the first or second.
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Ziam is definitely a much more technical striker. McKinney prob a better athlete and hits harder. McKinney is a better wrestler than Ziam so not sure how Ziam gets top time or pulls off a sub here. Vendramini had a lot of success in the third round against Ziam when he bit down on the mouthpiece and went forward. That is pretty much how McKinney fights from the beginning of the fight. I think McKinney will either find a finish himself or get too reckless and Ziam will KO him.
 
Holz37 said:
Ziam is definitely a much more technical striker. McKinney prob a better athlete and hits harder. McKinney is a better wrestler than Ziam so not sure how Ziam gets top time or pulls off a sub here. Vendramini had a lot of success in the third round against Ziam when he bit down on the mouthpiece and went forward. That is pretty much how McKinney fights from the beginning of the fight. I think McKinney will either find a finish himself or get too reckless and Ziam will KO him.
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McKinney is definitely a more explosive athlete, but I wouldn't say better. He has dangerous power and has flash finished most of his opponents without answering many questions.

A red flag when you're competing at this level is just that: not answering questions.

He faded quickly against Woodson despite dominating him, and the ease Woodson turned the tables on him prior to the finish (and the lazy takedown attempt that got him KO'd) speaks volumes about how McKinney will fare in the deeper waters - not well at all.

Ziam is an intentional test - a guy that was also finishing opponents with ease until he ran into better fighters, then he had to adapt to fight the distance because he's just not that dangerous.

I'm not saying if you survive 60 seconds against McKinney you automatically win, but I am saying the longer it goes, the easier it will be turn the tables. I don't like Ziam to score a KO, a TKO I suppose is possible, but I see him securing a sub or just riding out the full 15 for the win.
 
Siver! said:
McKinney is definitely a more explosive athlete, but I wouldn't say better. He has dangerous power and has flash finished most of his opponents without answering many questions.

A red flag when you're competing at this level is just that: not answering questions.

He faded quickly against Woodson despite dominating him, and the ease Woodson turned the tables on him prior to the finish (and the lazy takedown attempt that got him KO'd) speaks volumes about how McKinney will fare in the deeper waters - not well at all.

Ziam is an intentional test - a guy that was also finishing opponents with ease until he ran into better fighters, then he had to adapt to fight the distance because he's just not that dangerous.

I'm not saying if you survive 60 seconds against McKinney you automatically win, but I am saying the longer it goes, the easier it will be turn the tables. I don't like Ziam to score a KO, a TKO I suppose is possible, but I see him securing a sub or just riding out the full 15 for the win.
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I agree with most of this and im not really high on McKinney as a prospect for these reasons. We haven't really seen Ziam outgrapple anyone at the ufc level but we have seen him get outgrappled so I can't see him pulling off a sub here. I just think McKinney's volatile style and lack of defense will lead to most of his fights ending inside the distance whether hes getting finishes or getting finished.
 
Holz37 said:
I agree with most of this and im not really high on McKinney as a prospect for these reasons. We haven't really seen Ziam outgrapple anyone at the ufc level but we have seen him get outgrappled so I can't see him pulling off a sub here. I just think McKinney's volatile style and lack of defense will lead to most of his fights ending inside the distance whether hes getting finishes or getting finished.
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Fair, noted. I don't disagree with your read, on reflection.

Open question to all:

A fight I have next-to-zero data on is this Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs Sean Soriano fight.

Is Sean a lock here, I don't know his opponent at all?
 
Wait I thought it was just a typo but is Joanne Calderwood’s name really Joanne Wood now?
 
Speaking of (Calder)Wood, anyone think she has a chance against Santos? Taila’s athleticism seems like it’s going to overwhelm Wood completely
 
Danis_champ said:
Why isn't Brady vs Chiesa main eventing? Brady is bigger draw than Ketlen f'in Vieira and not many care about Miesha anymore.

Ketlen would be play of the year but her gas tank is awful. The only reason not to bet the house on her.
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I thought that of the same. Tate/Vieira should have being a co main event. I actually like this week's fight card for betting there could be a few good underdogs.
 
Thesnake101 said:
Anybody think Lutz outpoints Sabatini? Think he keeps it on the feet and outstrikes Pat for 15.

Also, is Durden/Qileng worth betting? Leaning towards Cody, but, aside from it being a low-level fight, Aori does have cardio.
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NO

YES
 
I put in my bets for the underdogs in case the odds shift...
-Tate
-Lutz
-Lookboomee

Originally I didn't know about the Tate pick, but after watching footage of both, she looks to have a clear speed advantage, her strikes look crisper, she actually possesses defensive grappling/from the bottom, and her cardio looks far superior, which I think will be key in a main event.
 
Shelter said:
Speaking of (Calder)Wood, anyone think she has a chance against Santos? Taila’s athleticism seems like it’s going to overwhelm Wood completely
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I think Santos takes it and makes it look easy.
 
Guld said:
I think Santos takes it and makes it look easy.
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Santos has yet to beat a solid striker. Joanne has out struck almost all her opposition and has gotten some horrible decisions. The fact that she lands 100+ ss on the feet against top tier is impressive, like Andrea lee and Murphy ,Chookagian. Im passing on this one, but i see the value side on Joanne.
 
Doggo_Stat_Collector said:
Santos has yet to beat a solid striker. Joanne has out struck almost all her opposition and has gotten some horrible decisions. The fact that she lands 100+ ss on the feet against top tier is impressive, like Andrea lee and Murphy ,Chookagian. Im passing on this one, but i see the value side on Joanne.
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Hmmm...I'll go an rewatch tape on both. I just think that Santos' power + accuracy will add up quickly.
 
I think Chiesa vs Brady SHOULD be the main event, but I think they know that Brady is pretty explosive and might possibly fade hard in a 5 rounder against an elusive guy like Chiesa.
They also realize that a 5 rounder favors Tate, and they are trying to build her up as a contender/name. So they did the swap, and put Tate in the Main Event. Win-Win for the UFC's plans.

It's also in the small cage which again favors Brady because it will make it easier for him to cut off the cage/lateral movement of Chiesa.
 
Doggo_Stat_Collector said:
Santos has yet to beat a solid striker. Joanne has out struck almost all her opposition and has gotten some horrible decisions. The fact that she lands 100+ ss on the feet against top tier is impressive, like Andrea lee and Murphy ,Chookagian. Im passing on this one, but i see the value side on Joanne.
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I just watched some more tape of CalderWood + Santos. CalderWood might actually have a speed advantage, but she leaves her head stationary every time she throws a kick or jabs, and she likes to lunge forward occasionally on her overhands. She looks like she's just asking for a counter to land.
She also looks worse when pressured, and Santos apparently loves to land a couple of solid strikes and then get a takedown+top control.
If it ends up in a clinch I feel that CalderWood has a chance with some elbows, but I feel like Santos will be too big/powerful and has a solid clinch as well.
In my opinion Calderwood will have to crack Santos' chin and get a TKO, otherwise she's gonna get hit by powerful shots and likely end up on her back for the fight.

TLDR: Santos is the proper favorite
 
Guld said:
I think Chiesa vs Brady SHOULD be the main event, but I think they know that Brady is pretty explosive and might possibly fade hard in a 5 rounder against an elusive guy like Chiesa.
They also realize that a 5 rounder favors Tate, and they are trying to build her up as a contender/name. So they did the swap, and put Tate in the Main Event. Win-Win for the UFC's plans.

It's also in the small cage which again favors Brady because it will make it easier for him to cut off the cage/lateral movement of Chiesa.
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Are you thinking of someone else? Chiesa doesn't look to move laterally or evade anyone for very long. He's purely looking to close distance and force grappling exchanges.
 
mkess101 said:
Are you thinking of someone else? Chiesa doesn't look to move laterally or evade anyone for very long. He's purely looking to close distance and force grappling exchanges.
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He's done it in his last few fights.
Magny and Luque for sure. A LOT of side stepping/lateral movement along the back of the cage.
 
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