UFC Fight Night - Santos vs Walker - Official discussion

[Post 2 Decision]

I think Holland is undervalued here too

He's coming off of two top 5 losses. Kyle Daukaus doesn't present the same TD threat of a Vettori/Brunson, and Holland is a bjj black belt that's longer, has better stand up, and is just overall more talented than Daukaus.

Holland/O'Neill/Price are going to be my 3 plays for this card. Most confident in O'Neill to win ITD.

Holland is the final piece to my parlay full of last card's locks

Shevchenko
Semelsberger
Andrade

Holland at -150 is ridiculous. He should probably end up bigger than -200. Daukaus looked like ass vs a garbage Hawes.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

This is a layup for Holland, and the line should be wider, and I suspect it will be closer to the fight. But right now people see Holland coming off of two L's to top tier competition and are writing his 2019/2020 off as a fluke, which is crazy.

Yeah, you nailed it here

 

[The Eagle]

Shevchenko Jr amazing value. She will beat the teenager.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Shevchenko Jr amazing value. She will beat the teenager.

Why do you think that?

O'Neill is my most confident play on the card, and I almost never have strong leans in WMMA.

O'Neill has a great chin, great cardio, good wrestling, and has shown improvements on a fight to fight basis, which is what you want to see out of a young fighter.

Antonina will have an advantage when the fight is standing, but Casey chain wrestles incredibly well -- she has the cardio to just endlessly shoot until she gets you down, and when Antonina is on her back, the skill gap will be bigger than it is standing.

Antonina is 36, a journey woman her whole career, and has just simply never dealt with the style Casey brings very well.

Should be a round 2/3 finish for Casey with relative ease. I passed on her in her fight versus Dobson, because her record was padded on the regional scene in a promotion that her dad worked for.

But if she continues to improve at the rate she has been, she'll be fighting for the title by the end of next year.

 

[KingRyan]

Shevchenko Jr amazing value. She will beat the teenager.

Nah, good test for Casey but she has been looking amazing.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I don't know man, I've never been high on Kyle Daukaus. I bet against him in his last fight when most people were on him. I've always had high hopes for Chris, not Kyle.

Holland lost to Brunson/Vettori -- 2 strong wrestlers, one who is a #1 contender now, and another who just fought for the belt.

Daukaus doesn't possess the strength to hold Holland down like either of those two did.

The best thing Daukaus has done in his career is have a good third round against Brendan Allen.

Holland has beat Di Chirico, GM3, Buckley, Stewart, and Jacare.

I think every single one of those aforementioned fighters, even Jacare as washed up as he was, beats Kyle.

Kyle can't hang with Holland on the feet, and will be shooting for desperation takedowns the whole fight.

This is a layup for Holland, and the line should be wider, and I suspect it will be closer to the fight. But right now people see Holland coming off of two L's to top tier competition and are writing his 2019/2020 off as a fluke, which is crazy.

Not exactly a whose who list of wins for Holland. His best performance is against buckley

Duakaus is the better grappler. Definitely not a layup for Holland, who is content to lay on his back for multiple rounds.

 

[Thesnake101]

I don't know man, I've never been high on Kyle Daukaus. I bet against him in his last fight when most people were on him. I've always had high hopes for Chris, not Kyle.

Holland lost to Brunson/Vettori -- 2 strong wrestlers, one who is a #1 contender now, and another who just fought for the belt.

Daukaus doesn't possess the strength to hold Holland down like either of those two did.

The best thing Daukaus has done in his career is have a good third round against Brendan Allen.

Holland has beat Di Chirico, GM3, Buckley, Stewart, and Jacare.

I think every single one of those aforementioned fighters, even Jacare as washed up as he was, beats Kyle.

Kyle can't hang with Holland on the feet, and will be shooting for desperation takedowns the whole fight.

This is a layup for Holland, and the line should be wider, and I suspect it will be closer to the fight. But right now people see Holland coming off of two L's to top tier competition and are writing his 2019/2020 off as a fluke, which is crazy.

I mean, of the guys you mentioned I would only slightly favor GM3 and Jacare over Kyle, and that's because of their own grappling.

Buckley's whole style hinges on his athleticism and is incredibly compact for the division, even a very unremarkable Arroyo was having success against him due to his length alone. Alessio and Stewart are both right around the level of guys I think Daukaus would beat, with Alessio maybe giving Kyle a tougher fight (big maybe since he had no clue how to defend a triangle choke against Spicely) since Darren couldn't even muster up any sort of defense against Fabinski's takedowns, was a turtle off his back and has looked awful since the Holland fight.

You may be right, but Kevin's streak lacks a lot of depth, hell, his win over Gerald is contentious, so I don't buy that he's a top fighter. I faded him in his last three fights (wrong about the Jacare one) since Kevin has always had issues with being too content off of his back, and what Kyle might lack in strength compared to Derek and Marvin he makes up for having a more developed BJJ game in terms of variety.

And it's not like Daukaus is small himself, mind you. Remember that Kevin was talking about dropping down to WW after the Brunson fight, so him getting overpowered again isn't that farfetched. I do believe that if he's to lose, it'll be in similar fashion as he did to Allen, getting outscrambled rather than outmuscled.

 

[SalvadorAllende]

So far I'm small on Santos round 1 at +398.

Walker gets rocked all the time and if Santos comes out guns blazing he could very well end it early.

But this being a 5 round fight worries me a little bit. Still good odds IMO

 

[Stat_Collector]

Holland is the final piece to my parlay full of last card's locks

Shevchenko
Semelsberger
Andrade

Holland at -150 is ridiculous. He should probably end up bigger than -200. Daukaus looked like ass vs a garbage Hawes.

How much was that Hawes being an ncaa wrestler, two different a style from Holland. What would happen if Daukaus goes in there and spams takedowns for three rounds.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

Not exactly a whose who list of wins for Holland. His best performance is against buckley

Duakaus is the better grappler. Definitely not a layup for Holland, who is content to lay on his back for multiple rounds.

I mean, of the guys you mentioned I would only slightly favor GM3 and Jacare over Kyle, and that's because of their own grappling.

Buckley's whole style hinges on his athleticism and is incredibly compact for the division, even a very unremarkable Arroyo was having success against him due to his length alone. Alessio and Stewart are both right around the level of guys I think Daukaus would beat, with Alessio maybe giving Kyle a tougher fight (big maybe since he had no clue how to defend a triangle choke against Spicely) since Darren couldn't even muster up any sort of defense against Fabinski's takedowns, was a turtle off his back and has looked awful since the Holland fight.

You may be right, but Kevin's streak lacks a lot of depth, hell, his win over Gerald is contentious, so I don't buy that he's a top fighter. I faded him in his last three fights (wrong about the Jacare one) since Kevin has always had issues with being too content off of his back, and what Kyle might lack in strength compared to Derek and Marvin he makes up for having a more developed BJJ game in terms of variety.

And it's not like Daukaus is small himself, mind you. Remember that Kevin was talking about dropping down to WW after the Brunson fight, so him getting overpowered again isn't that farfetched. I do believe that if he's to lose, it'll be in similar fashion as he did to Allen, getting outscrambled rather than outmuscled.

Daukaus is for sure a better grappler, that can't be disputed, just like how Holland is a better striker.

The problem is, he doesn't have good TDs whatsoever. Good BJJ and scrambles, but absolutely terrible TDs.

If you're betting on Daukaus, you're basically betting that all of a sudden his takedown offense has improved drastically, because if it hasn't, he has no path to victory in this fight. But what wrestling that you've seen from Daukaus in his past fights is making you so confident he can drag Holland down?

Holland was taken down by 2 elite wrestlers that are bigger and better at wrestling than Kyle. Since then, Holland's been at AKA training his wrestling.

I mean I can never hate on someone for going after a dog, I bet against Holland versus Brunson because of his awful TDD too. I watched him get mounted by Stewart of all people, and thought Brunson had a solid path to victory. I just don't see it with Daukaus, I've never seen any indication of him having even remotely good TD's.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Daukaus is for sure a better grappler, that can't be disputed, just like how Holland is a better striker.

The problem is, he doesn't have good TDs whatsoever. Good BJJ and scrambles, but absolutely terrible TDs.

If you're betting on Daukaus, you're basically betting that all of a sudden his takedown offense has improved drastically, because if it hasn't, he has no path to victory in this fight. But what wrestling that you've seen from Daukaus in his past fights is making you so confident he can drag Holland down?

Holland was taken down by 2 elite wrestlers that are bigger and better at wrestling than Kyle. Since then, Holland's been at AKA training his wrestling.

I mean I can never hate on someone for going after a dog, I bet against Holland versus Brunson because of his awful TDD too. I watched him get mounted by Stewart of all people, and thought Brunson had a solid path to victory. I just don't see it with Daukaus, I've never seen any indication of him having even remotely good TD's.

I didn’t say I was betting daukaus, just playing devils advocate.

for all we know Holland will find someway where he ends up on the ground with daukaus. He’s a flake, I can’t forget that. His fight iq just isn’t very good. He would rather play his lutter bjj than get up where he has an advantage. I hate betting chalk on guys like that.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

I somehow didn't see Misha was such a dog.

This is one of the few fights I'm going to put a lot of stock onto how Misha looks on the scales, as it's his first cut to 185.

Barring him missing weight, I think all he needs is one takedown to win this fight.

$150 on Misha ITD +230. Might add to it.

 

[ExitLUPin]

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

he's been training wrestling with hendricks, perhaps helps him keep the fight standing vs meh daukaus

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Holland was taken down by 2 elite wrestlers

I would not call Vettori an "elite" wrestler. He has good offensive grappler but MW has no elite wrestlers (Brunson is the closest thing).

 

[ExitLUPin]

I would not call Vettori an "elite" wrestler. He has good offensive grappler but MW has no elite wrestlers (Brunson is the closest thing).

 

[theTKDguy]

solecki all in?

misha as a dog seems nicee. ME FDGTD, a lock if i've ever seen one. fuck the u1.5 is a good play too.

mullarkey v smith ends violently and oneil prob grinds wish shev. this is a good card for betting, i think.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Shevchenko Jr amazing value. She will beat the teenager.

I dont think highly of her(o'neal), but ive been wrong about her 2x times now and im ptsd betting on anyone against her, wont bet for her or against her until she faces a real black belt who can wrestle and strike.

 

[Spath]

Why do you think that?

O'Neill is my most confident play on the card, and I almost never have strong leans in WMMA.

O'Neill has a great chin, great cardio, good wrestling, and has shown improvements on a fight to fight basis, which is what you want to see out of a young fighter.

Antonina will have an advantage when the fight is standing, but Casey chain wrestles incredibly well -- she has the cardio to just endlessly shoot until she gets you down, and when Antonina is on her back, the skill gap will be bigger than it is standing.

Antonina is 36, a journey woman her whole career, and has just simply never dealt with the style Casey brings very well.

Should be a round 2/3 finish for Casey with relative ease. I passed on her in her fight versus Dobson, because her record was padded on the regional scene in a promotion that her dad worked for.

But if she continues to improve at the rate she has been, she'll be fighting for the title by the end of next year.

If my memory isn’t failing me, @xhaydenx has a lot of good WMMA betting insight. Do you have a view on this fight? I don’t think I’ve ever seen O’Neill fight, but Antonina isn’t the easiest stepping stone…

I’m tempted to bet on Rosa against the incredible athlete Bethe Correia. Also as discussed, the main event isn’t going the distance so that and/or the u1,5 or u2,5 should be worth the squeeze.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

O'Neill ITD/Misha ITD/ME FDNGTD is +1000.

Value town. Throwing $250 on it.

edit: waiting for this freebet to be credited to my account. If I didn't have this free bet, I wouldn't go quite this heavy on it. this is some real degenerate shit.

You think Misha is going to be able to sub krylov? Dunno about all that.