UFC Fight Night - Santos vs Walker - Official discussion

Bakayoko said:
Wait,Cirkunov 2,40 over Jotko?I know he's been KO'd a few times now and moving down to Middleweight may make his chin more unreliable,but those loses were mostly against hard hitters(Walker,Spann,Oezdemir),Jotko doesn't carry that kind of power and is a step down in competition.And dropping down,Cirkunov should have even more of the strength and grappling advantage.I think Cirkunov wins a decision or subs Jotko,the line should favor Cirkunov slightly or pick em at worst.
Solecki is at 1,72,I think he should be more around 1,45-1.50.Gordon is tough and experienced but feel like Solecki has the advantage both on the feet and in the grappling.
Those are two picks I see as value,the rest I will wait for props.
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Agree on Misha, on the otehr side in Solecki fight
 
Need to see about Niko's TDD. Pretty obvious that at this point Brazilian Cowboy wants to wrestle from the opening bell. He's still wild and insanely hittable when he's forced to stand. So is Niko but I think he recovers much better when clipped than Oliveira does. If this stays standing, I see Niko finding the KO.
 
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mkess101 said:
Need to see about Niko's TDD. Pretty obvious that at this point Brazilian Cowboy wants to wrestle from the opening bell. He's still wild and insanely hittable when he's forced to stand. So is Niko but I think he recovers much better when clipped than Oliveira does. If this stays standing, I see Niko finding the KO.
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Niko's TDD isn't great, but he does work constantly from all positions. Cowboy will wrestle early and have success but I don't think he has the level of control or the cardio to just grind out 3 rounds
 
2020Tracked said:
This is a great card for betting.

Think a lot of lines get steamed this week, Price, Smith, Santos, O'Neil, Ladd
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I have one bet on solecki

that’s it.

the opinions in which cards are great for betting are subjective

I thought last week was great for betting while others didn’t like it. And I lost so go figure

those lines you mentioned really aren’t that good right now
 
Bakayoko said:
Yeah,Misha value od higher,but why do you pick Gordon against Solecki?
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I got Gordon early so the odds were bit better. Full disclosure I'm yet to finish taping, but big cardio and volume advantage. Looked great in last fight since moving to Sandford, has underrated power and is a brown belt in Jits and a better wrestler in my opinion.

Solecki is still a bit green and does dumb shit. Pulling guard against Miller and just staying on the bottom and losing the round. Gordon could potentially do that to him for 3 rounds and he won't gass.
 
ExitLUPin said:
Johny hasnt shown to be able to execute a thorough gameplan against a top opponent for more than 1 round. And despite the surgeries Santos is still athletic as hell.
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This fight is a pass for me. Johnny has a big size advantage, athleticism advantage, youth advantage. Unpredictable as fuck too. Just gonna stay away from this one, its two retarded brawlers, even if i think Santos should be favoured because he has better defence, i just dont think there is much value outside of playing the obvious under but i bet thats juiced to shit.
 
mkess101 said:
Need to see about Niko's TDD. Pretty obvious that at this point Brazilian Cowboy wants to wrestle from the opening bell. He's still wild and insanely hittable when he's forced to stand. So is Niko but I think he recovers much better when clipped than Oliveira does. If this stays standing, I see Niko finding the KO.
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Dont think Oliveira has the tank to consistently wrestle.
 
BigSteve said:
I got Gordon early so the odds were bit better. Full disclosure I'm yet to finish taping, but big cardio and volume advantage. Looked great in last fight since moving to Sandford, has underrated power and is a brown belt in Jits and a better wrestler in my opinion.

Solecki is still a bit green and does dumb shit. Pulling guard against Miller and just staying on the bottom and losing the round. Gordon could potentially do that to him for 3 rounds and he won't gass.
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Gordon looked good in his last two, but he also missed weight by like 5lbs in them both and was basically a light weight fighting feather weights.

I think Gordan is a good mid-level all rounder, a good test for Soleki at this stage. I did consider a play on Gordan too but after tape a see too many things I'm not sure about. His chin is terrible, like he gets rocked and hurt a lot, even by shots that seem pretty innocuous. I also don't like that his striking style is kick heavy, he kicks well but Soleki is so good at catching kicks a d converting them into takedowns.

Gordans wrestling and grappling is above average but I don't think he grinds out Soliki for rounds. His boxing is looking better, definitely going to have the striking advantage but don't know if that will be enough, he should be physically out matched and I think Soliki is the better wrestler and grappler.
 
Spath said:
I think people thought the exact same thing about Walker vs Krylov. Both guys are career long finishers, that rarely if ever go to decision. Somehow NCAA Krylov shows up and we got to see a grappling match where both guys gassed out.

I think that still is the only decision win for Krylov and the guy has like 40 fights I think.

So while I agree this isn’t going to a decision… There’s always a chance something totally unexpected happens.

<{Joewithit}>
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Broe. said:
Yeah I also remember Santos vs Holland. Santos went for takedowns the entire fight.
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3 round fights, though. In a 5 rounder I don't see how one of them survives all 5 rounds, no matter how they approach the first few.

Look at Santos/Anders. They were both so exhausted, and Santos still found a finish on Anders, who is more durable than Walker.

I've bet against Santos his last few fights, but I don't feel comfortable paying his current price tag, so I'm looking for alternative plays. The under just seems too obvious though, I'll have to see what lines are available to me tomorrow/wed when I have access to a bunch of different books with props.
 
I think Holland is undervalued here too

He's coming off of two top 5 losses. Kyle Daukaus doesn't present the same TD threat of a Vettori/Brunson, and Holland is a bjj black belt that's longer, has better stand up, and is just overall more talented than Daukaus.

Holland/O'Neill/Price are going to be my 3 plays for this card. Most confident in O'Neill to win ITD.
 
Initially said:
I think Holland is undervalued here too

He's coming off of two top 5 losses. Kyle Daukaus doesn't present the same TD threat of a Vettori/Brunson, and Holland is a bjj black belt that's longer, has better stand up, and is just overall more talented than Daukaus.

Holland/O'Neill/Price are going to be my 3 plays for this card. Most confident in O'Neill to win ITD.
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A flake a fluke and a female, all chalk parlay

I’m Having trouble pulling the trigger on these guys straight.

good luck
 
Hasn't Santos turned into a wrestler lately? Last fight we thought he was gona go beserker and he didn't at all.
 
Initially said:
I think Holland is undervalued here too

He's coming off of two top 5 losses. Kyle Daukaus doesn't present the same TD threat of a Vettori/Brunson, and Holland is a bjj black belt that's longer, has better stand up, and is just overall more talented than Daukaus.

Holland/O'Neill/Price are going to be my 3 plays for this card. Most confident in O'Neill to win ITD.
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I actually think there's value on Daukaus, especially if Holland tangles with him on the floor. Kyle acquitted himself quite well against Allen thanks to that strong third round, and I can't say I trust Kevin's bottom game against any strong grappler.

FGTD is probably safer, but I don't know the tag on that.
 
I agree with those picking Santos... Santos by brutal rd 1 KO. Walker isn't that good and way too hittable for someone with the striking skills of Santos.

Santos rd 1 +400 is sweet. Will also play the KO and ML
 
Thesnake101 said:
I actually think there's value on Daukaus, especially if Holland tangles with him on the floor. Kyle acquitted himself quite well against Allen thanks to that strong third round, and I can't say I trust Kevin's bottom game against any strong grappler.

FGTD is probably safer, but I don't know the tag on that.
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I don't know man, I've never been high on Kyle Daukaus. I bet against him in his last fight when most people were on him. I've always had high hopes for Chris, not Kyle.

Holland lost to Brunson/Vettori -- 2 strong wrestlers, one who is a #1 contender now, and another who just fought for the belt.

Daukaus doesn't possess the strength to hold Holland down like either of those two did.

The best thing Daukaus has done in his career is have a good third round against Brendan Allen.

Holland has beat Di Chirico, GM3, Buckley, Stewart, and Jacare.

I think every single one of those aforementioned fighters, even Jacare as washed up as he was, beats Kyle.

Kyle can't hang with Holland on the feet, and will be shooting for desperation takedowns the whole fight.

This is a layup for Holland, and the line should be wider, and I suspect it will be closer to the fight. But right now people see Holland coming off of two L's to top tier competition and are writing his 2019/2020 off as a fluke, which is crazy.
 
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