UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira

StayHumbl3 said:
I really dont know why most of you all like Allen so much xd, save your moneys boiss. you are welcome
Click to expand...
Ian has about one round of cardio where’s hes dangerous. Allen is the much better grappler, doesn’t have cardio issues and puts on a smothering pace.
 
Invictis said:
I legitimately cannot fathom that Santos is damn near -240, after coming off of major knee surgery/15 month layoff, and primarily a favorite just because he looked good against Jon Jones.

Do people forget that Jimi Manuwa was able to take him down with ease? That Mousasi dropped him with basically a jab?

Glover is a fucking beast, that's durable, has one of the best top games in the game, good boxing, good cardio, and he's going to be +200 soon.

I'd legitimately play him at -120. I'm extremely, extremely confident in this pick. This is shaping up to be my biggest bet of the year.
Click to expand...

I can definitely understand the reasoning behind a play on Glover at his current price, but a big bet here seems like a stretch, IMO.

Glover is going to be at a massive speed disadvantage against a guy with big power and much better cardio. We also don't know for sure how those knee surgeries and the layoff have effected Santos. It's possible that he won't be the same guy, but we shouldn't assume that's the case.

Also, Manuwa did not take Santos down at all. The fight hit the ground for a split second when Santos briefly attempted a guillotine on a rocked Manuwa and again when Santos slipped throwing a kick. I don't think it's going to be easy for Glover to get this fight to the ground where he needs it when he's at such an athletic disadvantage.

I've seen a few people saying that Santos is priced where he is because of the Jones fight, but he was also on a very good run before that. He had the current 205 champ in Blachowicz looking extremely tentative and beat him rather easily.

EDIT: I should also mention that most of Glover's recent wins have been come from behind victories against significantly inferior competition to Santos.
 
ill800 said:
Ian has about one round of cardio where’s hes dangerous. Allen is the much better grappler, doesn’t have cardio issues and puts on a smothering pace.
Click to expand...
Ian had cardio problems only in the Brunson fight, I trust him going 3 rounds.
 
Last edited:
Santos has been beating the hell out of legit guys for the last few years

definitely wouldn’t be going against him big at these prices. Does glover really win more than 35% of the time? I think 40% is about right, maybe even a bit generous
 
Martialbeef said:
Allen vs Heinisch +150 for the fight to not go to decision? Why?
Click to expand...
I will say this dispute my earlier prediction i think i see Heinisch as a good underdog and this could through the judges for score in a dec. Will Ian find that ITD against Allen? i am not sure about him winning a ITD. Dec is likely as well. If Ian keeps the fight staying.
 
t6p said:
I can definitely understand the reasoning behind a play on Glover at his current price, but a big bet here seems like a stretch, IMO.

Glover is going to be at a massive speed disadvantage against a guy with big power and much better cardio. We also don't know for sure how those knee surgeries and the layoff have effected Santos. It's possible that he won't be the same guy, but we shouldn't assume that's the case.

Also, Manuwa did not take Santos down at all. The fight hit the ground for a split second when Santos briefly attempted a guillotine on a rocked Manuwa and again when Santos slipped throwing a kick. I don't think it's going to be easy for Glover to get this fight to the ground where he needs it when he's at such an athletic disadvantage.

I've seen a few people saying that Santos is priced where he is because of the Jones fight, but he was also on a very good run before that. He had the current 205 champ in Blachowicz looking extremely tentative and beat him rather easily.

EDIT: I should also mention that most of Glover's recent wins have been come from behind victories against significantly inferior competition to Santos.
Click to expand...
I wouldn't say significantly inferior.
Glover will be slower 100%. But has shown better fight IQ than Santos. Ion Cutelaba had a speed advantage and power advantage over Glover and look what happened. Cutelaba landed a wicked spinning backfist that landed clean on the old man.

The Jan - Santos fight was sloppy as fuck. Jan rushed in throwing slow and ugly shovel punches and Santos was just throwing wild ass hooks while backing up. That isn't going to happen vs Glover who is now become basically a wrestler because he understands his hands are slower than ever.

I think Glover uses his fight IQ and grossly strong clinch game to wear Santos out. Factor in Santos' sketchy knees, this should be a closer fight than the odds say.
 
Last edited:
SolarSeiko said:
I wouldn't say significantly inferior.
Glover will be slower 100%. But has shown better fight IQ than Santos. Ion Cutelaba had a speed advantage and power advantage over Glover and look what happened. Cutelaba landed a wicked spinning backfist that landed clean on the old man.

The Jan - Santos fight was sloppy as fuck. Jan rushed in throwing slow and ugly shovel punches and Santos was just throwing wild ass hooks while backing up. That isn't going to happen vs Glover who is now become basically a wrestler because he understands his hands are slower than ever.

I think Glover uses his fight IQ and grossly strong clinch game to wear Santos out. Factor in Santos' sketchy knees, this should be a closer fight than the odds say.
Click to expand...

I don't disagree with any of your points. My argument was not against a Glover bet, it was against a big Glover bet.
 
t6p said:
I don't disagree with any of your points. My argument was not against a Glover bet, it was against a big Glover bet.
Click to expand...
Glover's age is what puts me off. 41. How much does he want it? OR is he just fighting for a cheque. Imagine being 41 and you gotta fight some young buck every time you fight.
 
Why did UFC even book the Giga vs James Krause-Simmons fight? I get that it has to fill the card with fights somehow, but Giga is a legit high level fighter, and Krause-Simmons is undersized and has maybe one decent regional level win (Shawn West).
 
t6p said:
I can definitely understand the reasoning behind a play on Glover at his current price, but a big bet here seems like a stretch, IMO.

Glover is going to be at a massive speed disadvantage against a guy with big power and much better cardio. We also don't know for sure how those knee surgeries and the layoff have effected Santos. It's possible that he won't be the same guy, but we shouldn't assume that's the case.

Also, Manuwa did not take Santos down at all. The fight hit the ground for a split second when Santos briefly attempted a guillotine on a rocked Manuwa and again when Santos slipped throwing a kick. I don't think it's going to be easy for Glover to get this fight to the ground where he needs it when he's at such an athletic disadvantage.

I've seen a few people saying that Santos is priced where he is because of the Jones fight, but he was also on a very good run before that. He had the current 205 champ in Blachowicz looking extremely tentative and beat him rather easily.

EDIT: I should also mention that most of Glover's recent wins have been come from behind victories against significantly inferior competition to Santos.
Click to expand...

Much better cardio? Because he went 5 rounds against Jon Jones, in a fight where Jones only attempted one takedown in the first round and fought at a slow pace?

Maybe I'm misremembering the Manuwa fight. I remember Thiago rocking him, and Manuwa shooting for a takedown, getting it easily, but not being able to hold position. I remember for sure though that Anders, who is uh, let's just say not nearly as good as Glover anywhere, was able to take him down 3 times in the first round.

That fight isn't exactly a fight that should make anyone confident about betting in Santos. It just showed how much of a maniac he is.

He rocks him bad, and instead of fighting composed, decides to engage in a fire fight and gets rocked himself.

I can't take anything away from his win over Jan -- that was by far the best performance of his career. He fought incredibly well, and didn't rush a finish.

Santos is an incredibly volatile fighter. He doesn't have the BJJ off of his back that Smith does, and look how badly Glover beat Smith from rounds 2 and up. I think he'll need just 1 takedown to finish Thiago on the ground.

Don't get me wrong, I think Thiago is incredibly dangerous in round 1. But if Glover can get himself in boxing range and on the inside, a lot of the threats that Thiago presents go away. He likes to keep people at kicking range, and I don't think Glover will play into that.

And we can safely assume that Thiago will be the same, or worse than we saw him last. He's not going to come back stronger, at 36, after a 15 month layoff and multiple knee surgeries.

If I was on Santos I'd play the u1.5, because if it goes past that, Santos will tire and Glover will be able to impose his will.
 
Honestly Santos has proven countless times he has great cardio for a jacked fighter throwing everything into his punches and kicks. Thats one thing I remember from researching him for previous fights.
Although who knows how it will look after the knees and running being the main thing fighters do for cardio
 
BigSteve said:
Honestly Santos has proven countless times he has great cardio for a jacked fighter throwing everything into his punches and kicks. Thats one thing I remember from researching him for previous fights.
Although who knows how it will look after the knees and running being the main thing fighters do for cardio
Click to expand...

I just rewatched his fight with Anders, and Santos was so tired in the middle of round 2.

He was lucky Anders has absolute dogshit cardio too, so he was able to sloppily finish him in round 3(after Anders repeatedly took him down at will and took his back).

That fight just gave me so much more confidence on Glover.
 
Invictis said:
I just rewatched his fight with Anders, and Santos was so tired in the middle of round 2.

He was lucky Anders has absolute dogshit cardio too, so he was able to sloppily finish him in round 3(after Anders repeatedly took him down at will and took his back).

That fight just gave me so much more confidence on Glover.
Click to expand...
He was probably tired from the intense ass whopping that he was handing out.
 
BigSteve said:
Honestly Santos has proven countless times he has great cardio for a jacked fighter throwing everything into his punches and kicks. Thats one thing I remember from researching him for previous fights.
Although who knows how it will look after the knees and running being the main thing fighters do for cardio
Click to expand...
Yea I bet on him fading before because of his freakish physique at 205, and I paid for it. As you’ve said, he’s proven time and time again that he has great cardio
 
Surprised money came back in on yan. Claudia is going to take her down. The question is only when will gadelha gas?

also wonder if a sub is in play here. Gadelha isnt very aggressive with submissions but she should have a big edge here on the ground
 
I am still 50/50 on Ramiz Brahimaj vs Max Griffin after some tape study. When Ramiz goes to the Matt his good. If this fight stays standing i think it goes to Griffin.
 
ill800 said:
Surprised money came back in on yan. Claudia is going to take her down. The question is only when will gadelha gas?

also wonder if a sub is in play here. Gadelha isnt very aggressive with submissions but she should have a big edge here on the ground
Click to expand...

If she's actually grappling hard, about 2-3 minutes into the first round as usual. Otherwise, some time in the 2nd round.
I also don't trust Claudia's fight IQ, she's working with Mark Henry these days so she'll probably try to prove her "improved striking" by standing with Yan for the entire fight.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,236,907
Messages
55,454,551
Members
174,787
Latest member
Gladiator47

Share this page

Back
Top