UFC Fight Night - Makhachev vs Moises

[Kazda1]

Not that I'm betting Lemos but I did think it's slightly concerning how much time she spent getting controlled against Mizuki. She still probably TKOs Ruiz though.

 

[Card]

Everyone made weight.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Looks like everyone made weight. . I already made a few plays.

 

[longway]

Well for starters, when DK first did MMA contests, you had to field a lineup with 5 fighters instead of 6. More often than not it was easier to pick 4 early finishers and usually 1 upset pick to round out your lineup to fit the 50K salary structure. The problem was that it didn't take long before people caught on, which led to a problem that still exists on DK today - which is there's a crap ton of ties in the larger tournaments. This really can't be fixed too much because on fight nights there's only but so many fighters from the pool to pick from. In comparison, the same doesn't happen if there's an NBA, NFL, NHL or MLB DK fantasy tournament. Lineup variation in those sports is massive, but only because the player pool is so big to choose from.

Not only that, but back then (2017), entry fees for tournaments were much higher and 1st prize was much smaller. The big tournaments today usually cost maybe around $15 but back then they were $33 or so. When I won those contests at UFC 200, the biggest tournament was the $33 entry one with first prize being maybe $10K. But I tied with several other people for 1st, cutting my winnings, same with the other 3 contest I won that night. The only contests I won sole first place in were the $3 single entry and $3 - 3 entry max.

I bring up the entry fees to make a point about why DK had to change the format to 6 fighters instead of 5. If it's easier to pick the 5 fights on a lineup, essentially all you need is a large bankroll to enter the bigger contests week after week. Your lineups won't change much outside of 1 or 2 fights and you play the same lineups most likely to win multiple times. If it works out and you get first place, the the lineups you've played multiple times in large contests tie for 1st place and freeze everyone else out of the top 10 which is where all the money is. Do this week after week and essentially you'll see it's rare anyone except for the same few people win. In fact, I saw a guy exploit this for maybe 2-3 months after I won, week after week on DK back then, which led to the format change.

Also, wrestlers in MMA DK fantasy didn't score points for control time back then, and takedowns didn't account for many points either - so strikers scored the majority of points. Having a wrestler in a lineup was pointless.

All in all, the entry fees are smaller nowadays and first prize bigger, but if so many people are playing and a lot of people all tie at the top - no one really notices in larger tournaments how slim your margin actually is to be profitable long term. You're throwing money away with no real chance week after week. Your best bet would be to play single entry tournaments in the long run.




I have a friend do the same for me, but I don't bother unless I know I can field a solid lineup with 6 fighters in a single entry format.




Tate could always take a punch though. Reneau may be better striking but she doesn't have the power that would deter Tate from implementing a wrestling game. Only Nunes had that kind of power that shocked Tate enough to make her think twice. Zingano had to almost kill Tate before the ref got involved.

Appreciate the detailed response. The 6 man format is tricky, and when a fight gets cancelled at last minute, its really hard to work out a decent line up to substitute. Its better not to enter until after weigh ins. Even then.. You can still get screwed.

 

[Kazda1]

Appreciate the detailed response. The 6 man format is tricky, and when a fight gets cancelled at last minute, its really hard to work out a decent line up to substitute. Its better not to enter until after weigh ins. Even then.. You can still get screwed.

Yet another reason not to bother with MMA fantasy in my opinion. At the very least in other fantasy sports the player pool is so large to have options at certain salary price points. In MMA, when a fight gets cancelled, you're restructuring an entire lineup. Don't get me started on wasted lineups when a fight gets cancelled after your lineup locks at the start time of a card. Or when low end salary fighters are granted a win on a DQ when they're getting their asses handed to them all fight.

Yeah. I know all about the unfair nuances of fantasy MMA. There's a reason why I don't bother anymore.

 

[BigSteve]

Nascimento looks good. Lightest he has ever been in the UFC. For reference, last fight was his heaviest

 

[StewDogg11]

Yet another reason not to bother with MMA fantasy in my opinion. At the very least in other fantasy sports the player pool is so large to have options at certain salary price points. In MMA, when a fight gets cancelled, you're restructuring an entire lineup. Don't get me started on wasted lineups when a fight gets cancelled after your lineup locks at the start time of a card. Or when low end salary fighters are granted a win on a DQ when they're getting their asses handed to them all fight.

Yeah. I know all about the unfair nuances of fantasy MMA. There's a reason why I don't bother anymore.

Meh happens in all sports. For example in golf this weekend at The British Open Will Zalatoris had a good opening round but had to withdraw before today’s round because he hurt his back. Everyone who had him in their lineup got hosed.

Also today in baseball Victor Robles started the game but was removed with an apparent injury before he ever even got an at bat.

It’s just shit luck, it happens unfortunately.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Meh happens in all sports. For example in golf this weekend at The British Open Will Zalatoris had a good opening round but had to withdraw before today’s round because he hurt his back. Everyone who had him in their lineup got hosed.

Also today in baseball Victor Robles started the game but was removed with an apparent injury before he ever even got an at bat.

It’s just shit luck, it happens unfortunately.

Ya sucks I had zalatoris in all 5 of my lineups SMFH

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Nascimento looks good. Lightest he has ever been in the UFC. For reference, last fight was his heaviest

Damn this flew right over my head til you said something. Now that i'm looking his physique is noticeably improved. Shame I can't find a way to play him

 

[mkess101]

@LEMONZEST

I looked at a few fights last night, but this card honestly looks like crap for betting imo.

The only really strong lean I have from a value standpoint is Quarantillo/Benitez o2.5 or goes distance. I think this one hits the cards and the price is good.

Islam will roll but odds are silly. Tate should be able to wrestle to a win but wouldn't trust her as a favorite given her layoff. Stephens may be done but no interest laying -225 on Gamrut. I guess Viera sub or Rd 1 could be a play...but not a ton of value there imo. D Rod odds about right imo. Lemos probably too juiced just bases on WMMA silliness. Ruiz had that weird win over Buys where she just had the headlock side control the entire fight. No clue what to make of her.

I didn't even look at the first 4 fights.

I think I'm just gonna play the Quarantillo/Benitez o2.5 and that's it. I'll be watching the Bucks game tonight anyway haha.

 

[Kazda1]

I'm starting to think the Moises ML play is approaching absurd levels. I find it hard to believe Islam is going to lay his way to a decision for 25 minutes. He doesn't land a lot of strikes and Moises should be too crafty to somehow be helpless here. I would think if this all is true his path to win is by finish but I somehow wouldn't be surprised if it's a sloppy jab/hook fest for 25 minutes.

 

[2020Tracked]

I think Moises is going to look stupid even being in there and accomplish absolutely nothing

 

[mkess101]

I'm starting to think the Moises ML play is approaching absurd levels. I find it hard to believe Islam is going to lay his way to a decision for 25 minutes. He doesn't land a lot of strikes and Moises should be too crafty to somehow be helpless here. I would think if this all is true his path to win is by finish but I somehow wouldn't be surprised if it's a sloppy jab/hook fest for 25 minutes.

I hope Islam goes into grapple mode immediately. I want to see how his top control and grappling looks vs a very crafty guy off his back in a long fight. I think he may be that special type grappler that will just positionally dominate pretty much anyone. But I need to see it.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

I'm starting to think the Moises ML play is approaching absurd levels. I find it hard to believe Islam is going to lay his way to a decision for 25 minutes. He doesn't land a lot of strikes and Moises should be too crafty to somehow be helpless here. I would think if this all is true his path to win is by finish but I somehow wouldn't be surprised if it's a sloppy jab/hook fest for 25 minutes.

Look deeper into those paths to win

One punch KO ala Adriano Martins ---- Moises has never one punch KOd anyone, nor can I remember him even rocking anyone on the feet
Avoid enough tds to win 3 out of 5 rounds ---- Hard to imagine this when we've seen Moises lose via top position twice already and Islam takes everyone down
Guard sub ---- Just na

I wouldn't play Islam, but its hard to say his price doesn't make sense.

 

[DC23]

Islam to lose by TKO for me tonight. Long shot but represents good value.

 

[Kazda1]

Look deeper into those paths to win

One punch KO ala Adriano Martins ---- Moises has never one punch KOd anyone, nor can I remember him even rocking anyone on the feet
Avoid enough tds to win 3 out of 5 rounds ---- Hard to imagine this when we've seen Moises lose via top position twice already and Islam takes everyone down
Guard sub ---- Just na

I wouldn't play Islam, but its hard to say his price doesn't make sense.

Are we saying Moises is a total wash here?

I know the UFC is hard pressed sometimes to find a headliner even on a card like this but are we really saying Moises has absolutely no shot? Moises striking has gotten better and for what it's worth Islam didn't exactly shoot for takedowns against Ramos. Not saying it happens here but if it's a stand up fight, who has the better stand up between Moises and Islam in your opinion?

I wouldn't rule out a draw either to be honest.

 

[StewDogg11]

Ya sucks I had zalatoris in all 5 of my lineups SMFH

Haha still worth points than Phil who some idiot I know I had in their lineup. PS the idiot is me.

 

[Kazda1]

I think Moises is going to look stupid even being in there and accomplish absolutely nothing

Maybe I should just chill out then lol.

But, if Moises wins y'all will hear from me

 

[Broe.]

why are they always matching up islam with nobodies? he should fight top 5 competition!

 

[Devilboy86]

Miles Johns Vs Dos santos fight off. Somebody in Dos Santos' camp test positive for covid