UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs Dumont

[Deleted member 510399]

eubanks pulled out unfortuantely i was huge on her, sucks.

Goodinez is replacing her who just fought this past weekend. I missed her fight gotta see how she is but looks like she got a quick sub. Maybe ITD goodinez is still great spot here, interested in people's thoughts.

Are you fucking kidding me, +250 ITD was a goddamn gift that I was about to add to

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Are you fucking kidding me, +250 ITD was a goddamn gift that I was about to add to

yah same it was insane misprice. goodinez + odds on finish would be good too though perhaps dunno.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

yah same it was insane misprice. goodinez + odds on finish would be good too though perhaps dunno.

Eubanks had an easier path to victory, as her ground game is so much better than Carolina's.

 

[joenewbie]

Carnelossi should cruise, right? She seems pretty legit for WMMA, don't think she's at that lowest level like the majority of the roster. She's built like a little tank, too. I have no idea who her opponent is, though, so please correct me if I'm wrong.

Angela Hill (who I consider low level WMMA) got the better of Carnelossi in standup fighting, which is her specialty. Hill won round 1 and then landed an elbow to open a cut and get the doctor stoppage in round 2. Against Liang Na, Carnelossi was a -225 favorite and yes she won, but the first round had a lot of back and forth moments for being such a heavy favorite. Carnelossi moves straight forward and back and doesn't move her head much and she gets hit alot. She very well could win next weekend but I would wait for better odds. Then again...I know nothing about her opponent.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

I'm not going big on him, but I think he has the skills to have value. He's the kind of guy who's probably injured and pushes through all the time (I was reading yesterday that Matt Bessette fought the last 5 years of his career with a torn ACL lol), but I like his volume and determination. He'll fight for the money and generally push the other guy to perform.

Yeah, I wouldn't lay a lot on either guy. Batgerel can shoot a decent double leg, but this is probably gonna be a striking match and a close one unless Davis gets dropped.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Still sad eubanks pulled out. Nothing else compares to that fight in this card.

 

[BigSteve]

is it me or all the over under lines wrong in the Jim Miller fight?? If Miller is a -200 fav, isnt his main condition against this can an early sub? Very interesting

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

is it me or all the over under lines wrong in the Jim Miller fight?? If Miller is a -200 fav, isnt his main condition against this can an early sub? Very interesting

yah i'm playing round 1 miller and sprinkle round 2 when line is available, hedging out with the can live around halfway point of 2nd round

 

[BigSteve]

Still sad eubanks pulled out. Nothing else compares to that fight in this card.

u might get much nicer line on Godinez at least

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

u might get much nicer line on Godinez at least

her obliteration of that girl was less than a week ago fresh on everyone's mind... but i hope so. really curious what the line will be.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Angela Hill (who I consider low level WMMA) got the better of Carnelossi in standup fighting, which is her specialty. Hill won round 1 and then landed an elbow to open a cut and get the doctor stoppage in round 2. Against Liang Na, Carnelossi was a -225 favorite and yes she won, but the first round had a lot of back and forth moments for being such a heavy favorite. Carnelossi moves straight forward and back and doesn't move her head much and she gets hit alot. She very well could win next weekend but I would wait for better odds. Then again...I know nothing about her opponent.

Carnelossi is very much a plow forward and throw heavy kind of fighter. She styles herself a bit like Jessica Andrade but without the same level of takedown threat. I can't remember much about Istela, but who knows what she's been doing the past three years and her only loss is against Angela Lee, who's much better than Carnelossi.

 

[Shelter]

I like all of the following props. Going to do two degen parlays with a mix of them and individual bets as well

Carnelossi DEC (+160)
Silva KO/Sub (+150)
Arlovski DEC (+175)
Ladd KO/Sub (+225)
Miller KO/Sub (+220)
Fiorot DEC (+200)

 

[BigSteve]

my 2c so far:

Nunes/Carnelossi: Dog or pass here. Im impressed by Nunes, very sharp striking. Makes sense as she is a world champ in Muay Thai. Carnelossi is like a Walmart Andrade but with less power. She is hittable, keeps coming forward, has good cardio, and is durable. Nunes seems to have a weakness on the ground and I'm pretty sure Carnelossi is a black belt, but she doesn't go for too many takedowns. If this stays standing for three rounds Nunes could look solid value. Nunes hasn't fought in like 3 years so there is potential for improvement.

Klein/Nate: Nothing I like here, Nate is super hittable, will keep coming forward, Klein could stick and move or kick his head off. Don't like his lack of volume. Taped it for Klein finish, but not fan of the odds. Probably a pass for me.

Emeev/Roberts: Not sure who is betting Emeev down so much, all the value is on Roberts. Emeev has been squeaking by for years now. Split decision against Zawada, close fights with low-level WW's like Stolze and Sekulic. Losing to Rocco who pretty much just calf kicked him to a clear DEC in Russia. No volume or urgency whatsoever, cant really hold people down. No way you can pay that juice on someone who will go to a DEC. Roberts has average TDD and IQ, constantly engaging in grappling when he should be keeping it standing. But in this situation, he could honestly get some takedowns on Emeev who has been taken down and mounted by Zawada, and taken down by Stolze too. Roberts is a great scrambler with more volume on the feet so I see this being another close DEC. Even if Emeev wins a 30/27 he won't live up to his price tag.

Sanchez/Bruno: Bruno is a definition of losing until getting a KO. He's a bit all over the place, shells up and switches stances. Sometimes unloads sometimes throws one strike at a time. Same as Roberts he engages takedowns against Russian wrestlers when he has been getting out grappled. He has like a 80% KO rate so that is more than a puncher's chance scenario for him. Sanchez has improved a ton with his hands. Good jab, 1-2, faints, counters etc. The guy is still hittable and fights in a karate stance with his hands low. He will no doubt be able to grind Bruno, but he isnt a sub threat so he needs to be careful for 3 rounds, something he has had problems with in the past. Bruno hits like a truck and can land the KO early or late, at plus money I like it better than his ML.

Marquez/Wright: How many meme wins can Wright get. Accidental knee on regionals, cut stoppage in debut, and elbows against the cage in last fight. I will give him credit the guy has great killer instincts. Long story short, dont think Wright has the durability or cardio to avoid Marquez's pressure style and heavy hands for 3 rounds. He doesn't seem to have 1 punch KO power but his hands are for sure heavy, and he is also a great finisher when he smells blood. I think Marquez is very durable despite being hittable. Im not a fan of over-unders but this fight should absolutely not be going O2.5. Either Wright gets another meme or Marquez finishes him late.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

I have a 50% profit boost on a bet up to $200.

ie, if I want to play Ladd ITD @ +220, and apply the boost, it makes it +330. So it's more profitable to use on underdog plays(+1000 becomes +1500, so the bigger the dog, the more profit it gives you).

I'm already $250 exposed on Ladd ITD, so I don't want to put $200 more on it. Trying to find a nice spot around +200 to hammer with a $200 bet.

Miller ITD was my lean, but with him having covid recently and being 38, it's tough.

Klein KO/Godinez ML @ is +200, gotta tape some more and place this bet within a few hours.

 

[Deleted member 510399]

No +110
UFC Fight Night: October 16th Fight to go the Distance
Wed 22:54 | Jim Miller vs Erick Gonzalez
Aspen Ladd By KO/TKO/DQ or Submission +220
UFC Fight Night: October 16th Alternative Method of Result
Wed 22:54 | Aspen Ladd vs Norma Dumont
Bonus: 50% Profit Boost ($200 Max Wager)$1,344.00
Wager: $200.00
Odds: +572
Return: $1,916.00

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

my 2c so far:

Klein/Nate: Nothing I like here, Nate is super hittable, will keep coming forward, Klein could stick and move or kick his head off. Don't like his lack of volume. Taped it for Klein finish, but not fan of the odds. Probably a pass for me.

Emeev/Roberts: Not sure who is betting Emeev down so much, all the value is on Roberts. Emeev has been squeaking by for years now. Split decision against Zawada, close fights with low-level WW's like Stolze and Sekulic. Losing to Rocco who pretty much just calf kicked him to a clear DEC in Russia. No volume or urgency whatsoever, cant really hold people down. No way you can pay that juice on someone who will go to a DEC. Roberts has average TDD and IQ, constantly engaging in grappling when he should be keeping it standing. But in this situation, he could honestly get some takedowns on Emeev who has been taken down and mounted by Zawada, and taken down by Stolze too. Roberts is a great scrambler with more volume on the feet so I see this being another close DEC. Even if Emeev wins a 30/27 he won't live up to his price tag.

Marquez/Wright: How many meme wins can Wright get. Accidental knee on regionals, cut stoppage in debut, and elbows against the cage in last fight. I will give him credit the guy has great killer instincts. Long story short, dont think Wright has the durability or cardio to avoid Marquez's pressure style and heavy hands for 3 rounds. He doesn't seem to have 1 punch KO power but his hands are for sure heavy, and he is also a great finisher when he smells blood. I think Marquez is very durable despite being hittable. Im not a fan of over-unders but this fight should absolutely not be going O2.5. Either Wright gets another meme or Marquez finishes him late.

I think Klein is gonna roll here. Nate is not gonna get takedowns and he's not a great striker despite loving striking wars plus his chin can be questionable. Line is steep, but I think it's the right side.

If you're betting Emeev, bet the over 2.5 at -180 or his DEC line at +110. I doubt Roberts gets a TKO or SUB here as Emeev has a solid chin and should fight his usual way with decent enough boxing and clinch that him lacking top control may not matter. Emeev won't sub him as Claudio Silva got it down in 1 and 2 and couldn't. Line is a little off now and Roberts could come back like a new guy, but he's 34. It's a Dagestani grappler versus a British striker so pretty easy pick.

I think this is a terrible matchup for Wright. Outside of a meme TKO, Marquez is gonna hurt him. Wright dances on his feet like VanZant, but he does have power. Marquez has a great chin though and will pressure him hard. Wright TKO +500 isn't a terrible hedge, but that's weak ROI.

I also like Arlovski here as his line might turn into plus money, but if you got +140 on Felipe that's good value. Plus money on both would be nice, but weak ROI. The over 2.5 at -190 seems safe as Felipe is a plodding fat guy who likes to pocket box and that's not a good look against a guy like Arlovski who hasn't finished anyone in a long time. I doubt Felipe's cardio holds up enough to win 3 and I think Felipe wins 1, but 2 is gonna be close. Arlovski DEC +200 is decent.

I think the under 4.5 at +100 in the main event might be worth a small play. How does Ladd hold up for 5 rounds after that weight cut and moving up? Dumont looks solid over 3 rounds and is a decent wrestler with bad top control and good kickboxing. I also like Dumont at +120, but it's WMMA with tons of shenanigans so maybe a hedge on Ladd TKO at +250.

Is anyone betting Bueno Silva?

If Davis comes in with a knee wrap, he's probably getting dropped at least once early and that could be a 10-8 round so DRAW at +5000 might be live.

 

[sonhow]

Is Gonzales even at that Scott Holtzman level? Miller has been losing 29-28's but Pichell does it to everybody lately and Solecki could give him a fight even in his prime. But I don't rate Scott that high and he beat Jim after the gas ran out.

 

[Thesnake101]

So, Sanchez has been at AKA for this camp. Think that means he won't fuck around with the striking and will look to outwrestle Silva for 3 rounds. Definitely taking a stab at him as a dog.

Is Gonzales even at that Scott Holtzman level? Miller has been losing 29-28's but Pichell does it to everybody lately and Solecki could give him a fight even in his prime. But I don't rate Scott that high and he beat Jim after the gas ran out.

I don't think he is, but Jim does seem to just sell out for a first round sub and then get outworked for the rest of the fight if it fails.

I think he picks up another quick win, but there could be some live betting value on Gonzalez if it gets out of the first.

 

[BigSteve]

Is Gonzales even at that Scott Holtzman level? Miller has been losing 29-28's but Pichell does it to everybody lately and Solecki could give him a fight even in his prime. But I don't rate Scott that high and he beat Jim after the gas ran out.

Scott, Pitchell and Solecki are all a level above Gonzales. I think all 3 finish him. Im starting to think Miller informed the UFC brass he is retiring and they fished out Gonzales for him. Jim Miller’s 38-fight gap in octagon experience vs. debuting opponent Erick Gonzalez is the largest for a single matchup in UFC history. If this dosent scream set up fight I dont know what does

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

was expecting lupita to be -300/-400 instead of low -200's. i see nothing in carolina in this matchup besides being bigger. don't think lupita will have much issues getting this to the ground. Only question is to play itd or not, still waiting on prices to come out.