UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo

[2020Tracked]

I think Fiziev has Riddell out gunned, more power, faster, quicker reactions and is pushing the pressure and pace right away.

I think Riddell takes a round of so to make reads and by then he's a round down and he's taken damage.

I can see Riddell winning the third, maybe even grinding it out, but I don't fully trust his chin and he gets cut every fight

 

[guesswhoseback]

I think Fiziev has Riddell out gunned, more power, faster, quicker reactions and is pushing the pressure and pace right away.

I think Riddell takes a round of so to make reads and by then he's a round down and he's taken damage.

I can see Riddell winning the third, maybe even grinding it out, but I don't fully trust his chin and he gets cut every fight

Take the over

 

[Thesnake101]

Take the over

No way the over is good odds though, both guys have won mostly by decision.

 

[guesswhoseback]

No way the over is good odds though, both guys have won mostly by decision.

Whats good odds Id assume it be less then -200 no clue though

 

[ExitLUPin]

@Initially is gone.... Bummer hope he's back whenever

 

[Oblivian]

I'm a bit in disbelief at the -220 line for Morono against Gall. Shouldn't we all be max betting this? How exactly does Gall win? In my opinion this is the biggest lock in recent memory.

Morono is always a weird guy to bet on. It's so strange to me that he has a TKD background given his style. He can be very stationary and just wing punches. Gall's striking has improved quite a bit too. I see Morono winning and I'm not even against a bet on him, but I certainly wouldn't max bet.

 

[Card]

A comment I just read on Reddit - "Fiziev seemed to have some personal problems, he made a post about it about 1-2 months ago, but said nothing concrete. Was very upset. His Instagram activity actually plummeted after that as I noticed. Maybe someone knows what is going on with Rafael?"

 

[Macaque]

A comment I just read on Reddit - "Fiziev seemed to have some personal problems, he made a post about it about 1-2 months ago, but said nothing concrete. Was very upset. His Instagram activity actually plummeted after that as I noticed. Maybe someone knows what is going on with Rafael?"

From what I remember, he was being discriminated against because he was part of a minority muslim group.

 

[Siver!]

Leavitt is a worse version of ryan hall and thats saying alot because ryan hall is utter dog shit

What are you talking about?

How are Leavitt and Hall similar?

Are you vaguely describing two guys who grapple, who had unbeaten starts, but have now lost? Or are you overemphasising Leavitt's leg attack against Puelles?

What comparative can there possibly be? Hall is a unique style that is what it is, unlimited spinning attacks, ankle rolls, not much else. Leavitt is one of the least unique fighters I've seen outside of his unusual flexibility. Nothing they do is remotely similar. Leavitt is a pretty standard grappler.

You can keep saying fighters are 'utter dog shit', but that's not analysis.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Morono is always a weird guy to bet on. It's so strange to me that he has a TKD background given his style. He can be very stationary and just wing punches. Gall's striking has improved quite a bit too. I see Morono winning and I'm not even against a bet on him, but I certainly wouldn't max bet.

Gall also has a nice size advantage. And I'm not sold on Alex having a solid td defense. He has managed to be matched against other strikers. But his last match against a ok grappler was Max Griffen who got him down 4 times. I wonder if Gall just goes in there Gracie style and taps him out via rnc.

 

[Stat_Collector]

what chain wrestling lol. Mariano and Levit 0 takedown defence. Couldn't finish either even though Mariano is a can, and Levit was gassed from the first round. Puelles also gassed from lay and praying Levit who essentially just pulled guard. Gruetz will get up every single time and put pressure on him since he wont be able to sub him.

I watched that fight, was an absolute mauling untill a meme kneebar out of his ass

I'm gonna side with youth here puelles is more nimble than Rafa Garcia and has decent kickboxing. I think the younger fighter at dog odds is the value side.

 

[guesswhoseback]

What are you talking about?

How are Leavitt and Hall similar?

Are you vaguely describing two guys who grapple, who had unbeaten starts, but have now lost? Or are you overemphasising Leavitt's leg attack against Puelles?

What comparative can there possibly be? Hall is a unique style that is what it is, unlimited spinning attacks, ankle rolls, not much else. Leavitt is one of the least unique fighters I've seen outside of his unusual flexibility. Nothing they do is remotely similar. Leavitt is a pretty standard grappler.

You can keep saying fighters are 'utter dog shit', but that's not analysis.

It is to me

 

[mkess101]

I'm a bit in disbelief at the -220 line for Morono against Gall. Shouldn't we all be max betting this? How exactly does Gall win? In my opinion this is the biggest lock in recent memory.

No way for me, wouldn't lay that juice here at all.

Morono is no doubt the more technical and skilled striker. Faster, understands how to set traps and use feints, throws combos. BUT...he will stand and trade wildly from time to time. He's been hit because after he lands he stays in the pocket and admires his shot instead of immediately sliding out of range. It's not a matter of him lacking skills. It's that he seems to just like to stand and trade at times.

Gall...is a rudimentary boxer but he's managed to make it moderately effective has his career has progressed. He seems to have a granite chin. He has some power. And he's damn sure not afraid to stand in the pocket and bang. Most likely, Morono is gonna give him a few chances to brawl when it's standing.

As far as grappling goes, Gall has definitely shown that he'll accept bottom too easily and for far too long at times during his career. He treated it like a grappling match, where he wasn't taking damage but was allowing his opponent to bleed the clock away and win rounds. But I can't see Morono going that route. I doubt he has the wrestling ability to do it even if he wanted to. On the other hand, Morono absolutely cannot allow Gall to put him on his back. Gall is a criminally underrated grappler, people don't seem to realize the skill level he has. Prior to Gall's last fight a poster here (I honestly can't remember who it was, I could go back and look I guess) kept arguing with me that Gall's grappling background was overblown and he'd never sub Jordan Williams, etc. And I was like "Dude...I don't care if it was prior to when Gordon Ryan was viewed as the GOAT...having a competitive grappling match with him is something VERY few guys on earth could have done even at that point." Well...look what Gall did to Williams. The fight was an utter mismatch once it hit the mat, and Gall finished him quickly. If Gall is able to take Morono down, Morono is in real trouble.

Edit: The guy who I was arguing about Gall's grappling ability with is now banned of course. Dogs and Kisses was his name.

 

[Main_Card_MMA]

After losing huge on the Gaethje/Chandler Under I've sworn never to bet big on props again. You just can't ever be too sure, props are only worth betting if the line is exceptionally good.

I mostly agree. I think props are excellent hedges if the odds are high enough. ITD, TKO, SUB and DEC finishes as well as round props are pretty great small plays to cover some things. Hedging and live betting are great ways to minimize losses and can sometimes almost guarantee a win. Playing over/unders is a risky idea unless you have a history of success with them. Since most high level fights go the distance, the overs can be fairly reliable in some matchups, but they're often juiced so not worth it. Parlaying the unders at plus money can work and sometimes the books screw up and give you an under 2.5 when it should be 1.5 or vice versa. IMO, once is a freak, twice is a coincidence and thrice is a pattern; that fight should have ended ITD. Just don't go huge on anything like that and you should be fine. I know a lot of people who bet to win a certain amount instead of betting based on what you're willing to risk and I prefer the latter.

 

[sonhow]

Gall looked best hes looked with Brown as his cornerman. Sometimes little things like that matter. Morono aint no world beater thats for sure.

 

[stingren]

I think Fiziev has Riddell out gunned, more power, faster, quicker reactions and is pushing the pressure and pace right away.

I think Riddell takes a round of so to make reads and by then he's a round down and he's taken damage.

I can see Riddell winning the third, maybe even grinding it out, but I don't fully trust his chin and he gets cut every fight

riddell will grapple and grind away for a dec over a gassed fiziev

 

[mkess101]

Gall looked best hes looked with Brown as his cornerman. Sometimes little things like that matter. Morono aint no world beater thats for sure.

With Gall, people seem to mostly remember 2 fights. The shitshow vs Diego where Gall was literally in the middle of kidney failure (not the BS excuse after the fact type deal---he was in the hospital a WEEK after that fight because his kidneys were shutting down) and the fight with Perry because Gall got outgrappled.

The Sanchez fight is barely worth talking about. If you rewatch it, Gall looked like a straight up zombie before the end of rd 1. Dude should NOT have been in that cage, he should have been in the ICU.


The criticism from the Perry fight is fair to a degree, but there's other takeaways from that fight. Standing, Gall actually may have gotten the better of it. He landed a lot of good shots on Perry (the same Perry who went toe to toe in a war with Luque) and Gall's success standing was potentially part of the reason that Perry surprisingly went to his grappling. Also, Perry showed himself to be maybe a bit of an underrated grappler IF he can get top position. He's mostly useless off his back, but he was so much physically stronger than Gall that any technical advantages Gall had were neutralized by Perry's strength.

I think Morono is decent but nothing special. Pretty good all around fighter but does nothing exceedingly well. Paying -2xx on him vs a guy with world class grappling and submission skills who's also tough and durable as hell...can't imagine doing it.

 

[BigSteve]

With Gall, people seem to mostly remember 2 fights. The shitshow vs Diego where Gall was literally in the middle of kidney failure (not the BS excuse after the fact type deal---he was in the hospital a WEEK after that fight because his kidneys were shutting down) and the fight with Perry because Gall got outgrappled.

The Sanchez fight is barely worth talking about. If you rewatch it, Gall looked like a straight up zombie before the end of rd 1. Dude should NOT have been in that cage, he should have been in the ICU.


The criticism from the Perry fight is fair to a degree, but there's other takeaways from that fight. Standing, Gall actually may have gotten the better of it. He landed a lot of good shots on Perry (the same Perry who went toe to toe in a war with Luque) and Gall's success standing was potentially part of the reason that Perry surprisingly went to his grappling. Also, Perry showed himself to be maybe a bit of an underrated grappler IF he can get top position. He's mostly useless off his back, but he was so much physically stronger than Gall that any technical advantages Gall had were neutralized by Perry's strength.

I think Morono is decent but nothing special. Pretty good all around fighter but does nothing exceedingly well. Paying -2xx on him vs a guy with world class grappling and submission skills who's also tough and durable as hell...can't imagine doing it.

Salim fight was a pretty average look

 

[Bakayoko]

Font-Aldo odds getting closer,that could be another max bet for me aside Crute.Holloway beat Aldo with faints and jab,something Font is very good at,plus the reach advantage,Aldo's gonna get punched in the face a lot in this 5 rounder.Apex and Font's grappling is the only thing holding me from max betting Font,but I doubt Aldo will menage too steal enough with it.Crute,Font,Kape I like a lot.

 

[mkess101]

Salim fight was a pretty average look

Gall looked pretty pedestrian but not terrible imo. That version of Gall (though he obviously looked way better this last fight)...I could see Morono -160 to -180 as justified. Not over 2-1 though.