UFC Fight Night Derrick Lewis vs Alexey Oleinik - Official Bets

[Sadistics]

Thanks mate. I tried making BetMMA account months ago and I legit had no idea how to use it lol. Posted in this general forum to see is someone could help me and then I gave up. I track it my self though Im pretty anal about all my wins and loses have a spread sheet from Jan last year. This result was to the dollar, including my cash outs and everything.

I lost about 400 on Dariush hedging and same with Luque last week because I just played it really safe. And Maia decision hedge completely put me into minus. Its an area Im still working on, only started hedging recently but it has helped me a lot. Really hard to rely on live betting here in Australia to hedge your self when you have to call, then potentially be on hold ( happened today twice ), and then by the time they put it on for you odds go down or freeze. If Holtzman was wining that fight by decision, for me I feel is better to have a bit a hedge going into it, minimize my risk just incase, rather than rely on live betting which could ultimately fuck me because of their incompetence.

Ahh that makes more sense, no LB to save your ass if things go south.

 

[benebox]

Thanks mate. I tried making BetMMA account months ago and I legit had no idea how to use it lol. Posted in this general forum to see is someone could help me and then I gave up. I track it my self though Im pretty anal about all my wins and loses have a spread sheet from Jan last year. This result was to the dollar, including my cash outs and everything.

I lost about 400 on Dariush hedging and same with Luque last week because I just played it really safe. And Maia decision hedge completely put me into minus. Its an area Im still working on, only started hedging recently but it has helped me a lot. Really hard to rely on live betting here in Australia to hedge your self when you have to call, then potentially be on hold ( happened today twice ), and then by the time they put it on for you odds go down or freeze. If Holtzman was wining that fight by decision, for me I feel is better to have a bit a hedge going into it, minimize my risk just incase, rather than rely on live betting which could ultimately fuck me because of their incompetence.

My 2cents on the matter is that the problem with hedging is you are essentially betting against yourself. Sometimes it is warranted but most of the time it would be statically better to just choose the one outcome you see the most value in. I used a hedge with Dariush this event just because I saw value on both the sub and the decision and then he ended up getting the KO. lol

 

[burge13]

You should really only hedge the last leg of a big parlay or giant line movements in your favour imo

 

[BigSteve]

My 2cents on the matter is that the problem with hedging is you are essentially betting against yourself. Sometimes it is warranted but most of the time it would be statically better to just choose the one outcome you see the most value in. I used a hedge with Dariush this event just because I saw value on both the sub and the decision and then he ended up getting the KO. lol

yea and thats the reason hedges can burn you sometime. Dariush was my biggest play ( 1,700 is a lot of money for me ) and there was no hedge to begin with because after reseach i though that he was better than Holtzman everywhere and he would be fine. But as the fight gets closer, you think of that chin, plus I am already up a lot and being greedy has cost me before so I though why not minimize my risk because if he is gassed and is losing decision and there is nothing I can do about it because live bet if fking me I would be pissed .

For example my two other biggest nights before this one was when I absolutely hammered Blaydes, and Kattar. No hedges no fear or panic either were going to lose. That same night I was big on Roberts, but I hedged with Miller RD1 sub incase he fell over and got subbed lol ( saved me ).Clark decision and Manefild KO was my first big hedge and thats what hooked me, the fact I won a unit either way. But ye as I say, im still new to this, hedging has helped me a lot but has burned me too, just have to fine tune it and decide when to back my self etc.

 

[GigaOuts]

+9764, fuck the summer slump

What slump? you have like 1 or 2 losing event base on your posting.

 

[Sadistics]

What slump? you have like 1 or 2 losing event base on your posting.

The last 2 years I've done awful through the summer, been conscious of it this year but seems like there's nothing to it

 

[BaruchSpinoza]

0.75 u on Benny by sub at +400

0.5u Stoliarenko by DEC at +650

0.075u Akhmedov T/KO R3 at +1300

0.7u Lewis T/KO R1 or 2 at +140
0.1u Oleinik sub R1 at +600

Keep forgetting to come back and tally up my losses (it is admittedly less fun after losses):
-0,445 on these prebets.
Bet Holtzman 0.25 u after he "landed" a second successful eye poke but also got 0.1 u on Means by decisions at +325, so that was something...

I'm on a real skid. I've been betting small so both wins and losses are small, but over the last four events I'm down 4.095 u. At least I'm still up a measly 2.065u in total over the last ten events. I like a several dogs on this next card, and I think I will be betting a little heavier than usual.