UFC Fight Night Derrick Lewis vs Alexey Oleinik - Official Bets

Below is me so far for the day. Only 2 fights left. Might drop it all on Lewis and Oly to have a finish.

Missed Tucker @ 1.50 because the Live bet person couldn't understand me lol.

$719 profit for the day from $250 risk. This is a lot better than my usual 2-3k on one multi per card. Sure, $719 is a super small result for me normally, but I can win more safely this way. If I'd done this new method in the last 2 cards before this, it would have been 97k off $500 lol. I'm holding out to try and hit something like that this year haha.

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£128 Olenik +230 to win £294.40 -£128
£20 Olenik rd 1 +700 to win £140 -£20
£10 Olenik rd 2 +900 to win £90 -£10

£260 Weidman -110 to win £236.60

£50 Dariush decision +333 to win £166 -£50
£30 Dariush sub +400 to win £120 -£30

£50 Mean decision +340 to win £170

£45 Zalal sub +400 to win £180 -£45

Added during event...
£50 Means +130 to win £65
£100 Stewart 1.60 to win £60

Net Profit: £248.60

*Disappointed none of the subspecialists were able to get the sub (Zalal and Olenik came very close)

 
Last edited:
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Some cards you just want to bet almost every fight you look at it. Only current no-bet is Stewart vs. Pitolo although even that might change.

5u on Lewis ITD at -125
1u on Buckley at +355
3.4u on Kunitskaya at -170
2.7u on Staropoli at -135
Click to expand...

Only live-bet in an event with few good spots was 0.36u on Al-Qaisi at -180 after round 2. Considering that half the people watching thought Al-Qaisi was already up 2-0, and Rivera winning round 3 was partially facilitated by a strategic kick to the balls, I'm happy with that play.

Anywho, the night started badly, with a -4.06u hole with 4 fights left.

However, then Kunitskaya won exactly in the manner I predicted and Lewis, while he made me sweat with his imbecilic decision to grapple against Oleynik in round 1 (he could have had a 30 second knockout otherwise), still coming through, I ended with +1.94u.

No regrets on making a small stab on Buckley, who landed his fair share of hard connects. Holland looked great against Hernandez and then looked even better tonight, only 2.5 months later. Think he is finally starting to realize his potential.

The Staropoli fight was frustrating. A large reason I liked Staropoli was his fantastic movement and defense, two elements he abandoned to engage in a toe-to-toe slugfest with Means. He was doing okay, taking the first round on my card, but it severely diminished his win expectancy. He was one bad mistake/unlucky bounce away from losing, and sure enough, that's what happened with Means' head kick in round 2, a stanza Staropoli was winning before that.

Then, in round 3, Means clinched any time Staropoli was finding success striking, winning the round for the judges.

Right now, I want to say that was a decent bet, but I will chew over whether I went a little too heavy or what.

Anyways, I will take the modest +1.94u win as I continue to repair my bankroll.
 
Sadistics said:
Oleinik +285 $250
Oleinik RD1 +605 $100

Weidman +105 $1600
Weidman SUB +550 $150

Stewart -129 $1600

Kunitskaya -180 $1800

Holtzman +165 $400

Means +132 $400
Means/Staropoli O2.5 -108 $250

Tucker -130 $500

Zalal -295 $2000

Rivera -175 $1000


Waiting on a couple line shifts but I'm about set
Click to expand...

Sadistics said:
Added:

Haqparast -223 $1600

Buckley/Holland O1.5 -108 $1600

Considering Means DEC +300
Click to expand...

+9764, fuck the summer slump
 
Ended up being a good night for me.
+6.2 u with 9u played in total tonight, that's a good ROI I suppose.
8u and -0.1u yesterday on Bellator.
I actuually almost had a clean sheet this we with Jury, Chandler, Dariush, Stewart, Kunitskaya, Weidman and Lewis all coming through.
Only one that shat the bed was Mittrione (-4u though)
 
2020Tracked said:
Wideman at 1.90 for 1 unit
Sanchez at 2.30 for 1 unit
Irwin Riviera at 1.50 for 1 unit
Pitolo at 2.50 for 0.5 unit
Beneil/Holtzman under 2.5 at 2.00 for 1 unit
Nasrat ITD a5 2.70 for 0.5 unit

Conflicted on Darren Stewart/Pitolo but the price is getting wide enough to where I see a play on Pitolo making sense.. Money was coming in on Pitolo so I took him

Cashed out on Justin Jaynes, not feeling it
Click to expand...

Pitolo fucked me out of a clean sweep on picks, went 11 and 1

Profit on pre bet and some great live lines, got Weidman decision at 4.50 after round two, Means at 2.60, Means decision at 3.80 and Tucker ITD at 3.00
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
$30 Dairush @ -160
$50 on Stewart @ -180
$30 Weidman @ -150
$20 on Holtzman @+160 (Hedged after Dairush missed weight)
$5 Holtzman Sub @ +2200
$20 Jaynes GTD
$10 on Akhmedov @ +100
$10 on Julija
$5 on Zalal + Sanchez + Akhmedov to win $23.17
$50 Holland vs Buckley over 1.5 @ -115 (tailing Sadistics)

need to watch more tape on Sanchez and Turman.
Click to expand...

+$50 fifth consecutive winning event. Upping my unit size to $25.

@Sadistics setting the bar high as fuck. Congrats my dude. <DCWhoa>
 
Last edited:
BigSteve said:
Rivera 1,417 to win 742
Qaisi DEC 142 to win 342

Janes 143 to win 200
Janes KO 57 to win 200

Sanchez DEC 100 to win 260

Nasrat KO/DEC 1,500 to win 725
Munoz DEC 325 to win 1,137

Dariush 1,740 to win 1,400
Holtzman RD1 & 2 300 to win 1,500

Means 182 to win 200

Yana 1,334 to win 600 ( reduced my action because WMMA to win 400 )
Yana DEC 200 to win 200
Julia RD1 SUB 150 to win 1,125

Weidman 471 to win 400
Omari RD1 KO 75 to win 600

Olenik 400 to win 920
Lewis RD1,2 or 3 520 to win 473
Click to expand...

Added pre bet:

Holtzman KO 300
Holtzman DEC 100

Julia RD1 SUB 50

Live bets:
Buckley 50 after RD2
Julia 100 after RD2 ( shit my pants over that armbar )

+ 2,252 = 5.5u

Worst result ever last week, followed by my new PB. Very happy with that, Steve dosen't lose 2 weeks in a row.
Seems like everyone did good, i have a good feeling about next week GG.

When i grow up I wana be just like @Sadistics :).
 
chemmy said:
Dariush risk 3.12 units to win 2
Kunitskaya risk 2.14 units to win 1
Rivera risk 1.81 units to win 1
Haqparast risk 2.21 units to win 1
U2.5 Haqparast 0.5 units to win 0.64
Weidman risk 1.11 units to win 1
U.2.5 Weidman risk 0.5 units to win 0.62
Jaynes risk 1 unit to win 1.44
Zalal risk 3.19 to win 1
U2.5 Zalal 0.5 to win 0.66 units
Click to expand...

+4.5 units... excellent night
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
I´ll join in, it might be a bloodbath, quite a few dog plays. Also got limited on quite a few bookies like betfair/unibet who of course refused to give a proper reason.

Plays for tonight.

1u Tim means 2.25
1.25u Olei 2.90
1.25u Weidman 1.90
1u Justin Jaynes 2.1
1u Alex Munoz 3.80
1u Joaquin Buckley 4.80
2u Markus 1.62

I know some people like to know the amount of money.
My current unit size converted to usd is around $150-160
Click to expand...

Yep pure bloodbath, -4.88u had a feeling it’d be that. Livebet went well again, but overall still around -3u. As livebetting has gotten much better recent pre bets gone down, so time to focus on those especially. Very happy that livebetting is going so well now, 9u total past two events from lb, but thrown all that away on prebets, so time to focus on those prebets especially going forward. When I started livebetting late last year, really did not have a feel for that, could not get the hang of it, but now that finally has been going fantastic. For the prebets I have a few adjustments I want to do, so excited for that going forward. Important to self reflect rather than make excuses. A close fight with a huge dog odds fighter does not mean there was value, a fav can have a tough fight, even bad moments but still should be a big fav, many do not get this but claim there was “value to look good. Here no excuses, all about learning and re-adjusting. and happy I know what I want to adjust going forward, so will see how goes.

Congratulation to all winners and great to see Sadistics with those lovely numbers, hoping for a new record year for him, absolutely killing the game. He has taught me so much and still learning even more, So much respect.

On to the next cards.
 
BigSteve said:
Added pre bet:

Holtzman KO 300
Holtzman DEC 100

Julia RD1 SUB 50

Live bets:
Buckley 50 after RD2
Julia 100 after RD2 ( shit my pants over that armbar )

+ 2,252 = 5.5u

Worst result ever last week, followed by my new PB. Very happy with that, Steve dosen't lose 2 weeks in a row.
Seems like everyone did good, i have a good feeling about next week GG.

When i grow up I wana be just like @Sadistics :).
Click to expand...

Do you track at all? I'd be interested in seeing your stats on hedges. From afar it seems like a bit of a hole. Great job on the big win btw
 
DonQ94 said:
Added:
€20 on Jaynes @ 2.40
€30 on double chance Lewis by KO/Oleinik by sub @ 2.1
€40 on Oleinik to get 2 or more TDs @ 1.85
Click to expand...

€-3.90 so a small loss for me. Wasn't able to do a lot of research this week nor do livebetting and it shows. Unfortunate because I feel like this could be a profitable event. All things considered I'm glad it's just a miniscule loss.
 
Had two parlays equaling like 1,100 shit the bed when Oleinik got knocked out. Shame. Had Darius ITD, Weidman straight, Means straight...
 
Sadistics said:
Do you track at all? I'd be interested in seeing your stats on hedges. From afar it seems like a bit of a hole. Great job on the big win btw
Click to expand...
Thanks mate. I tried making BetMMA account months ago and I legit had no idea how to use it lol. Posted in this general forum to see is someone could help me and then I gave up. I track it my self though Im pretty anal about all my wins and loses have a spread sheet from Jan last year. This result was to the dollar, including my cash outs and everything.

I lost about 400 on Dariush hedging and same with Luque last week because I just played it really safe. And Maia decision hedge completely put me into minus. Its an area Im still working on, only started hedging recently but it has helped me a lot. Really hard to rely on live betting here in Australia to hedge your self when you have to call, then potentially be on hold ( happened today twice ), and then by the time they put it on for you odds go down or freeze. If Holtzman was wining that fight by decision, for me I feel is better to have a bit a hedge going into it, minimize my risk just incase, rather than rely on live betting which could ultimately fuck me because of their incompetence.
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
Yep pure bloodbath, -4.88u had a feeling it’d be that. Livebet went well again, but overall still around -3u. As livebetting has gotten much better recent pre bets gone down, so time to focus on those especially. Very happy that livebetting is going so well now, 9u total past two events from lb, but thrown all that away on prebets, so time to focus on those prebets especially going forward. When I started livebetting late last year, really did not have a feel for that, could not get the hang of it, but now that finally has been going fantastic. For the prebets I have a few adjustments I want to do, so excited for that going forward. Important to self reflect rather than make excuses. A close fight with a huge dog odds fighter does not mean there was value, a fav can have a tough fight, even bad moments but still should be a big fav, many do not get this but claim there was “value to look good. Here no excuses, all about learning and re-adjusting. and happy I know what I want to adjust going forward, so will see how goes.

Congratulation to all winners and great to see Sadistics with those lovely numbers, hoping for a new record year for him, absolutely killing the game. He has taught me so much and still learning even more, So much respect.

On to the next cards.
Click to expand...
I don't know if I agree with your statements about value underdogs. I mean it depends on what you see as a close fight. But if I bet on an underdog in a close fight and it loses, I feel like it was a good bet. Because in the long run those close fights will go your way as well.
 
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