bit late on this one, apologies. Was hard to find the motivation to tape this card, and the first two fights I did were the Staropoli and Hughes ones...Anyway my 2 cents:
Garcia/Onti: Bit of a shitshow fight. Ontiveros moving to LW first time in his career, going to be huge. The under is the only decent option here, Ontiveros gets Koed and quits for fun, and Garcia is constantly aggressive and has decent power. I still have some PTSD from playing the under in the Mana/Guido fight and last week's main. I think for it go over, Garcia will have to come out and fight, unlike his usual self, because Ontiveros is very hittable and fights with his hands down. Possibly the under 1.5 at plus money for less exposure.
Rosa/Jackson: Jackson is the side but I wish the odds were better. Jackson has some sneaky power, he is cracking some dudes on the regionals and has a one-punch KO as well. His aggressive pressure game where he hunts for takedowns is a perfect game plan against Rosa. He has to avoid getting subbed, which should be ok as Rosa's jits seems to be getting worse and worse. I don't like how Jackson keeps dropping down for the guilly. His takedown defense almost seems as bad as Rosas, which adds potential for a
sweaty scramble fest where judges have no idea who won. Jackson is also chinny but I think he should be fine here. Rosa is just a fade for me in general, not UFC lvl. I have a sprinkle on the decision just due to the odds being better. Hopefully, this isn't the first time Rosa gets subbed, I think his chin will hold up.
Romanov/Vanderaa: Rough matchup for Vanderaa. Big athletism advantage for Romanov, almost inevitable he will get a TD in round 1 at some point. Vanderaa is a turtle off his back. I think Romanov has the cardio to take Vanderaa down in every round. Espino is another big wrestler, he actually took Romanov down, mounted him and made him work his way up which I think is what tiered him out. Vanderaa doesn't have good wrestling, he usually just cage holds for ages until he gets some sort of trip. Also doesn't have much power, most of his KOs are from GNP against low-level opponents. He does have an iron chin though, so I was looking at the over 1.5 at plus money. You never know with Romanov though, he could pull off a forearm choke or he could just keep changing positions on the ground and doing stupid King Kong punches. Also, another ref stops that Roque fight in the first during the GNP.
Gutierezz/Corales: Think there is value in Gutierezz DEC, or RD3/DEC if you want to be safe. Gutierrez is a neutralizer, he sticks and moves and can't even finish an opponent he has been when they are there for the taking. Corales is also tough as shit, but very hittable and as he slows down he gets even more sloppy. Gutierrez stays very safe on the ground, dont see him getting subbed. Durden and Barcelos are more dangerous and both had his back for around at least. He also has underrated takedown D and getups. Other than a meme leg kick KO ( he has 2 now so possible ), I think he picks off Corales for 3 rounds.
Hawes/Winn: Awful matchup for Winn. Think Hawes is due for a KO again. Winn has better wrestling credentials I'm pretty sure, but means fuck all in MMA. He cant hold anyone down, so he always has to mat return fighters for 3 rounds, and he just doesn't have the cardio to do that. A half-dead Arroyo with 0 takedown defense kept getting up from under him. He got hurt by Stewart in the second, by GM3 in the third and Arroyo was tagging him in the first. You don't want to be taking punches from Hawes. Winn is durable but I think Hawes' cardio has improved so much he could even finish Winn late when he tires out, especially if he targets the body. Round 1 and the under have juicy odds, but if you want to be safe just the KO prop is plus money.
Agapova/Mazo: Easy dog or pass here, no way I can lay that kind of price on Mazo. She has lost RD 1 in 4 out of 5 of her UFC fights. She is still quite green, doesn't sit down on her punches, and has a trash ground game. She is going to be at a massive speed disadvantage early against Agapova. If Agapova comes out super aggressive, she might gas but that round is going to be a sweat. Agapova is also an opertunistic back taker. Mazo gave up her back twice to try to stand up against Davis and was stuck in that position for the rest of the round. Agapova can at least reverse ground positions and has some aggression about her. Also pretty good GNP. I have seen the craziness regarding Agapova and that Moroz interview. The photo in the interview is about 13 weeks ago, more than 3 months. She's at a new gym now and its hard to know if that stuff is still going on, but if its not that's plenty of time to get some solid training in. I think Mazo is tough so not sure if I can play Agapova either, live bet might be a good spot if she empties the gass in the first.
Elliot/Nicolau: Nicolau is a solid fighter, good everywhere. Great grappling and wrestling, technical boxing, and good power. Nice leg kick. Volume and cardio could be a bit better and I have questions about that chin. Although it held up against Kape who was landing some solid stuff. I had to go back to his TUFF days to see some takedown defence and how he is off his back. I liked what I seen in terms of technical get-ups and not staying on the ground long. The Efrain fight more recently in Brave was a bit more concerning, but I think he just decided to stay on the ground to ride out rounds that he was clearly winning. In the second he was hunting for a heel hook and also hurt his opponent with a solid upkick. I think he could be live for a sub here considering Elliot almost got his knee blown up by Beniot of all people. The fact that Elliot is going to keep coming and has better volume makes these odds a bit wide. But I still think Nicolau is a level above and im noticing improvements fight to fight.
Dern/Marina: Seems like a simple fight but something about it makes it hard to get a read on. I have half a unit on Dern by finish because I will be pissed if that result happens and I had no money on it. Otherwise, in a 5 round fight and with no finish I favour Marina all day. She always has one takedown in her in each fight, but she still hasn't been subbed by black belts like Calvillo and Ribas. I know Dern is on another level, but I just have a bad feeling Marina could survive by just holding on till the next round. Not playing props here as I recon Dern is durable and the only KO Marina has in the UFC is against Ribas who in my opinion is a bit chinny. But out of principle I will keep that Dern finish play at plus money
