UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez
- Thread starter BigSteve
- Start date
- Joined
- Sep 15, 2014
- Messages
- 18,064
- Reaction score
- 10,723
Am i wrong for thinking Nicolau should be a -300 fav over Elliot at worst? Don't see how Tim wins, especially since his gas tank has looked suspect for a bit.
His wrestling seems solid, should have a huge advantage on the feet and might even snatch Tim's neck on the mat. Definitely hitting him at his current odds and might couple it with some props when they drop, think he's getting a sub here.
His wrestling seems solid, should have a huge advantage on the feet and might even snatch Tim's neck on the mat. Definitely hitting him at his current odds and might couple it with some props when they drop, think he's getting a sub here.
- Joined
- Feb 9, 2019
- Messages
- 14,482
- Reaction score
- 53,250
- Joined
- Feb 28, 2019
- Messages
- 13,564
- Reaction score
- 5,645
oh god the scenes of vanderaa on his back with romanov on top doing donkey kong barrage strikes to his dome
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 51,187
- Reaction score
- 21,198
Can Rodriguez stay off the mat with Dern for 25 minutes? I doubt it. Dern has gotten way better with her ability to strike her way inside and get ahold of her opponents. She's still not a "good" striker but she's effective enough to accomplish what she's trying to do which is close distance. And she's shown a rock solid chin when she does get hit on the way in.
And if she gets Marina down, this isn't Esparza or Calvillo that Rodriguez will be dealing with that will lay on her and land some weak gnp. Dern will advance and likely get to a dominant spot quickly. She's just light years better on the mat than basically every other woman in MMA.
I'm gonna say Dern likely finds a finish at some point. Her days of fucking around and not caring are over, no more huge weight misses etc. She's taking scalps.
And if she gets Marina down, this isn't Esparza or Calvillo that Rodriguez will be dealing with that will lay on her and land some weak gnp. Dern will advance and likely get to a dominant spot quickly. She's just light years better on the mat than basically every other woman in MMA.
I'm gonna say Dern likely finds a finish at some point. Her days of fucking around and not caring are over, no more huge weight misses etc. She's taking scalps.
- Joined
- May 30, 2019
- Messages
- 55,023
- Reaction score
- 120,618
Yeah even at current odds I put a little bit on Romanov, I don't see any path to victory for Vanderaa at all. I think him and Gutierrez are the locks of the card.
- Joined
- May 30, 2019
- Messages
- 55,023
- Reaction score
- 120,618
What does everyone think of Pickett as a dog? I don't think he's very good but Staropoli is extremely average too and I think Pickett is probably the more athletic.
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2020
- Messages
- 6,233
- Reaction score
- 4,471
Great odds for picket
- Joined
- Oct 25, 2020
- Messages
- 824
- Reaction score
- 399
UFC Vegas 39, UFC Fight Night:
Mackenzie Lynne Dern Santos vs. Marina Alcalde Rodriguez
Brazil vs Brazil again
#UFCVegas39
Saturday, October 9, 2021
Mackenzie Dern quotes:
“I think her ground game has a lot to work on. I’ve seen her do a couple of elbows from the bottom, but more when the girl is just holding her on the ground. But I’ve seen her get up and giving her back, so I can imagine her camp is going to be a lot of take-down defense and maybe getting up using the cage to get up. I think her striking is so dangerous, but the ground has a lot to work on.
“I’ve been looking at all of her fights. So I wouldn’t say particularly Carla Esparza, but even the fights that were draws, like let’s say with Randa Markos, Carla Esparza, Cynthia Calvillo – basically all her fights in the UFC, even her last one Michelle Waterson. Even though she won the fight, I believe only one round that she lost was the one that Michelle Waterson, who’s more of a striker, took her down. So I think the hole in her game is just the take-downs. She had a draw with Cynthia Calvillo. Cynthia did so good, but the rounds that were close is when Cynthia took her to the ground and was on her back near the end of the fight. Randa Markos took her down. It was a draw, too. So once she keeps it standing up, it’s hard. But when I saw all the girls, maybe they didn’t win the fight, but when they really pushed it, most of them were able to take her down.”
“I think it’s going to be a first-round submission again this time. I definitely think I’ve found my way in MMA, kind of found what works for me. And hey, why would I want to stay too much getting punched in the face, taking all this damage, take more time recovering to get back into training when it’s clear that obviously taking it to the ground works for me? The girls are still getting better, the level on the ground, but I need to take advantage. That’s my strength, so I think it’s going to be a first-round submission.”
“In December 2020, when they offered the name it didn’t happen.
I ended up fighting different people, but I knew, OK if they mention her now she’ll come back sooner or later.
I saw her fight with Amanda Ribas, who I have my loss to.
With Michelle Waterson and noticed her. I started following Marina on Instagram.
Actually before I fought Marina, I followed Virna (Jandiroba) when she finished Felice Herrig (in Jiu-Jitsu) and then she was my next fight.
Then I follow Marina and she was my next fight. I swear I’m not doing this on purpose.”
I think I match up good and I think we saw in the Amanda Ribas fight that I definitely can’t get too comfortable with her.
She’s experienced and has more fights than me. Her length is really good.
From seeing her fights in the UFC… It’s not a secret her weakness is the ground.
I definitely think the way to win is to take her to the ground.”
I definitely don’t think it will go 5 rounds, although I am excited to show I can go 5 rounds.
I think it’s going to be a submission and I think I’ll be able to get her on the ground and submit.
I don’t think it will be easy, she has good distance and a lot of experience.
I think there will be maybe a couple of bloody noses and swelling of the eyes, but I think we’ll get it to the ground for a submission.”
-Mackenzie Dern
Mackenzie Lynne Dern Santos vs. Marina Alcalde Rodriguez
Brazil vs Brazil again
#UFCVegas39
Saturday, October 9, 2021
Mackenzie Dern quotes:
“I think her ground game has a lot to work on. I’ve seen her do a couple of elbows from the bottom, but more when the girl is just holding her on the ground. But I’ve seen her get up and giving her back, so I can imagine her camp is going to be a lot of take-down defense and maybe getting up using the cage to get up. I think her striking is so dangerous, but the ground has a lot to work on.
“I’ve been looking at all of her fights. So I wouldn’t say particularly Carla Esparza, but even the fights that were draws, like let’s say with Randa Markos, Carla Esparza, Cynthia Calvillo – basically all her fights in the UFC, even her last one Michelle Waterson. Even though she won the fight, I believe only one round that she lost was the one that Michelle Waterson, who’s more of a striker, took her down. So I think the hole in her game is just the take-downs. She had a draw with Cynthia Calvillo. Cynthia did so good, but the rounds that were close is when Cynthia took her to the ground and was on her back near the end of the fight. Randa Markos took her down. It was a draw, too. So once she keeps it standing up, it’s hard. But when I saw all the girls, maybe they didn’t win the fight, but when they really pushed it, most of them were able to take her down.”
“I think it’s going to be a first-round submission again this time. I definitely think I’ve found my way in MMA, kind of found what works for me. And hey, why would I want to stay too much getting punched in the face, taking all this damage, take more time recovering to get back into training when it’s clear that obviously taking it to the ground works for me? The girls are still getting better, the level on the ground, but I need to take advantage. That’s my strength, so I think it’s going to be a first-round submission.”
“In December 2020, when they offered the name it didn’t happen.
I ended up fighting different people, but I knew, OK if they mention her now she’ll come back sooner or later.
I saw her fight with Amanda Ribas, who I have my loss to.
With Michelle Waterson and noticed her. I started following Marina on Instagram.
Actually before I fought Marina, I followed Virna (Jandiroba) when she finished Felice Herrig (in Jiu-Jitsu) and then she was my next fight.
Then I follow Marina and she was my next fight. I swear I’m not doing this on purpose.”
I think I match up good and I think we saw in the Amanda Ribas fight that I definitely can’t get too comfortable with her.
She’s experienced and has more fights than me. Her length is really good.
From seeing her fights in the UFC… It’s not a secret her weakness is the ground.
I definitely think the way to win is to take her to the ground.”
I definitely don’t think it will go 5 rounds, although I am excited to show I can go 5 rounds.
I think it’s going to be a submission and I think I’ll be able to get her on the ground and submit.
I don’t think it will be easy, she has good distance and a lot of experience.
I think there will be maybe a couple of bloody noses and swelling of the eyes, but I think we’ll get it to the ground for a submission.”
-Mackenzie Dern
Last edited:
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 51,187
- Reaction score
- 21,198
Dern knows what she is, and what her gameplan needs to be. I don't think people fully realize just how far ahead of other WMMA fighters she is in terms of grappling, the gap is HUGE. Jandiroba (an extremely decorated grappler) was getting beaten to the punch and busted up standing by Dern for the most part, and she STILL was desperate to avoid being on the mat with Dern. That's how big the gap is. With men, if you have two super high level and decorated grapplers you generally won't see a big grappling skill disparity between them. But WMMA is different, maybe because it's newer. Even high level black belts (high level by WMMA standards) are petrified of being on the ground with Dern.
If Dern gets Rodgriguez down even once with more than 90 seconds to work with, Rodriguez is in huge trouble and likely gets finished. The grappling difference is like prime Jacare or Maia getting a regional level guy with a blue belt in bjj to the mat.
- Joined
- Nov 10, 2020
- Messages
- 6,233
- Reaction score
- 4,471
Marina is tapping already
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2020
- Messages
- 4,482
- Reaction score
- 1,845
- Joined
- Sep 9, 2020
- Messages
- 4,482
- Reaction score
- 1,845
First off wow way to go out on a limb and saying the 2 biggest favs on the card are locks to win lol Just joking.
But holy hell 30k messages in less then 2 yrs I thought i was on here alot lol
- Joined
- Nov 16, 2009
- Messages
- 3,858
- Reaction score
- 801
Romanov and Hawes for a -143 parlay. Nothing particularly special about it, but I like both to win. After that I’m going to wait for some of the props to come out and throw some small stuff on those
Romanov struggled more than I hoped he would against Espino, but I think he’ll be able to mimic what his countryman Spivak did to Vanderaa, especially with Romanov being the more credentialed wrestler.
It’s a shame Hawes is so chinny and bad at protecting himself, but Deron “The Tired Tub” Winn isn’t going to be the one to exploit it.
Romanov struggled more than I hoped he would against Espino, but I think he’ll be able to mimic what his countryman Spivak did to Vanderaa, especially with Romanov being the more credentialed wrestler.
It’s a shame Hawes is so chinny and bad at protecting himself, but Deron “The Tired Tub” Winn isn’t going to be the one to exploit it.
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2020
- Messages
- 1,319
- Reaction score
- 1,114
Just a shambles of a card, terrible.
- Joined
- Sep 15, 2014
- Messages
- 18,064
- Reaction score
- 10,723
Personally, I'm waiting for the props for the Romanov fight to drop. Rom itd and sub lines should give better value, Jared's ground game is horrid but he's tough enough for Alex to take the path of least resistance and tap him I think.
- Joined
- Jul 6, 2009
- Messages
- 2,334
- Reaction score
- 428
Don't know much about Charles Ontiveros Vs Steve Garcia, but noticed Ontiveros is a pretty big underdog for what seems like a low level fight.
Anyone overly familiar with them both? Ontiveros dropping down a weight class or two (tapology listing him as a MW but looks like he fought Holland semi recently at 170) interests me a bit but f he might have a sizeable advantage.
Anyone overly familiar with them both? Ontiveros dropping down a weight class or two (tapology listing him as a MW but looks like he fought Holland semi recently at 170) interests me a bit but f he might have a sizeable advantage.
- Joined
- Sep 15, 2014
- Messages
- 18,064
- Reaction score
- 10,723
Ontiveros sucks. Garcia should drop him like a bad habit.
Steve's usually only in trouble if his opponent has good grappling and can boss him around, which isn't Ontiveros' M.O even if he'd have the size to pull something like that off.
- Joined
- May 30, 2019
- Messages
- 55,023
- Reaction score
- 120,618
Agreed Onriveros is one of the weirdest signings ever, he barely looked LFA standard when he was there never mind UFC.
- Joined
- Feb 4, 2019
- Messages
- 3,330
- Reaction score
- 4,568
i know you say this almost every card, but I agree with you here
