UFC Fight Night: Covington v Woodley

Go with your own reads. Sadistics played Markos at a much better price, and he’s risking .6 of a unit

Personally I don’t think there’s value there at +250
Thanks for the advice
 
Does Woodley catch Covington in a fluke sub? I don't want to bet with my emotions but +1345 looks amazing when you hate Covington
Everybody knows woodleys go to submission is that horrible ill advised guillotine to look like he’s going for something when in reality he’s given up as a fighter
 
I got 600 on nike price to win $400. Heard on bispings podcast that cerrone pretty much didnt train for the conor fight and that he is coming into this one focused. I think his chin is done though and that niko’s pressure will make cerrone fold as he has a multiple times in recent years. Hopefully the training camp stories from cerrones camp are just excuses
 
Hello!

I've been lurking for a while(I forgot my account info).

Hopefully I can provide some insight, as I've been watching MMA for 15 years, pretty much every single event the past 10 years.

I'm no Sadistics, but hey, who is(TrueAscension gets an honorable mention for being a parlay GOAT).
 
Hello!

I've been lurking for a while(I forgot my account info).

Hopefully I can provide some insight, as I've been watching MMA for 15 years, pretty much every single event the past 10 years.

I'm no Sadistics, but hey, who is(TrueAscension gets an honorable mention for being a parlay GOAT).
Hello. Only one way to find out. Who do you like tonight?

I'm starting to lean heavily on Johny Walker. Might max bet him while he still in the -120 range. Potential play of the day
 
Price hits harder than Pettis,Conor and Tony

Does he though? The fact still remains Cowboy has never lost to a low to mid tier fighter like Price. Remember the last time he was the underdog to fighters he was way more skilled than but people were just fading him for being old? Yeah Cowboy cashed every time. Sorry but I’m not willing to bet on something that hasn’t happened yet in Cowboy’s 50 something fights let alone to someone who’s been finished in every single one of his losses like Price has.
 
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Does he though? The fact still remains Cowboy has never lost to a low to mid tier fighter like Price. Remember the last time he was the underdog to fighters he was way more skilled than but people were just fading him for being old? Yeah Cowboy cashed every time. Sorry but I’m not willing to bet on something that hasn’t happened yet in Cowboy’s 50 something fights.

Price clearly hits harder than all 3 of those men

I could see the fight going like his fight with Tim Means, who was lighting him up and then just got waxed pretty much out of nowhere
 
Price clearly hits harder than all 3 of those men

I could see the fight going like his fight with Tim Means, who was lighting him up and then just got waxed pretty much out of nowhere

Betting on a favorite who is outskilled everywhere just because he hits hard and you’re fading the other guy’s chin is a dangerous game let alone one who isn’t really that durable himself.
 
Hello. Only one way to find out. Who do you like tonight?

I'm starting to lean heavily on Johny Walker. Might max bet him while he still in the -120 range. Potential play of the day

Haven't placed any bets yet, but I'm leaning Walker/Ewell/Stewart.

Walker is being slept on because of 2 bad losses. Recency bias at it's finest. He may be my biggest play.

I was on GM3/Cerrone until today, now I'm probably going to switch sides and end up sitting the GM3 fight out, and betting on Price.

The fact that EVERYONE is on Colby in his fight against Woodley worries me.

He should win -- I've seen every fight of his, and the dogshit performances Woodley has had in his last 2.

But Colby sounds rather sick in an interview he had yesterday, wore a mask to the weigh-ins despite being pro trump, and neither attended the press conference when they were supposed to(which Dana couldn't explain very well). I'm probably reaching, but I legitimately think he's fighting sick.

If a more motivated Woodley shows up vs a sick Colby with even slightly worse cardio, Woodley can easily take it. I think his sub prop @ +1300 has value, a long with his moneyline.

Waiting for his price to get a bit better before making a play.

So yeah, Woodley/Woodley sub/Walker/Price are my main plays. I was on Dern, but Sadistics being on Markos scares me a bit.
 
Betting on a favorite who is outskilled everywhere just because he hits hard and you’re fading the other guy’s chin is a dangerous game let alone one who isn’t really that durable himself.

That's true

I'm not actually going to bet on this fight, might play Price's KO line which was +100 last time I looked, I'm a big fan of both guys so I'd rather just sit back and enjoy the fight

It's more a combination of Price's power and then Cowboy being in 4 taxing fights previously, his age and the fact he's just had a kid
 
I'm usually not a huge parlay guy, but Dern/Ewell/Nam/Walker @ +480 is enticing.
 
I think price is a good matchup for Cerrone he’s reckless, Has poor defense and is pretty much worse than Cerrone in most areas. Not to mention he’s a favorite. Cerrone has obviously slowed down and is on a big losing streak but most outside of pettis he lost to elite competition. If I knew Cerrone would use his wrestling and jui jitsu I’d be much more confident but I could see a head kick ko here.
 
I think price is a good matchup for Cerrone he’s reckless, Has poor defense and is pretty much worse than Cerrone in most areas. Not to mention he’s a favorite. Cerrone has obviously slowed down and is on a big losing streak but most outside of pettis he lost to elite competition. If I knew Cerrone would use his wrestling and jui jitsu I’d be much more confident but I could see a head kick ko here.

If Cerrone can survive the first 5 mins then I would tend to agree with you. I just question if his chin can hold up.
 
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