UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

longway said:
I admire Vettori for taking this fight, but he got played imo.
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Yeah if this gives Costa 13 minutes of cardio, instead of his usual 8-10, he could win the fight.

Vettori won't be able to get him down early, he's just too big. He'll land body shots and probably some big shots to the head, but Vettori will take them since he has a good chin.

This gives Costa the chance to win 3 rounds, and then survive the last 2 and win a decision.
 
Ricci has a great ass it'll be nice visuals while she's on top and then subs opponent to cash itd. Looking forward to that fight.
 
Initially said:
Yeah if this gives Costa 13 minutes of cardio, instead of his usual 8-10, he could win the fight.

Vettori won't be able to get him down early, he's just too big. He'll land body shots and probably some big shots to the head, but Vettori will take them since he has a good chin.

This gives Costa the chance to win 3 rounds, and then survive the last 2 and win a decision.
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IDK if Costa's cardio is really gonna be any better. Sure it **could** be, but it's no lock. He's carrying a crazy amount of muscle. Those big muscles take a lot of oxygen. Maybe not cutting weight will really help his cardio but I'm not sure how anyone could count on that.
 
mkess101 said:
IDK if Costa's cardio is really gonna be any better. Sure it **could** be, but it's no lock. He's carrying a crazy amount of muscle. Those big muscles take a lot of oxygen. Maybe not cutting weight will really help his cardio but I'm not sure how anyone could count on that.
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I mean I'm on the under and Marvin ITD, so I hope it won't help.

But the more I think about it, seems like a calculated move. And if it is, he better get Vettori out of there early for me.
 
Initially said:
I mean I'm on the under and Marvin ITD, so I hope it won't help.

But the more I think about it, seems like a calculated move. And if it is, he better get Vettori out of there early for me.
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Maybe calculated...but dude seems kinda flaky so maybe he's just being what Izzy said he was all along: a blown up Ricky Martin wannabe.

I absolutely think Costa can win, but I wouldn't trust him a bit.
 
mkess101 said:
IDK if Costa's cardio is really gonna be any better. Sure it **could** be, but it's no lock. He's carrying a crazy amount of muscle. Those big muscles take a lot of oxygen. Maybe not cutting weight will really help his cardio but I'm not sure how anyone could count on that.
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Aka. Marvin itd, or rd 4 and 5 props
 
I really like that Marvin is focused on this fight. In one interview someone asked him about Izzy and his reply was hes not thinking at all about Izzy, hes focused on Costa.

Its my own superstition but i always thought guys who talked about future opponents ended up losing their upcoming fight. Now with the weird multiple weight changes, im convinced there is something wrong with costa physically, injury.
 
longway said:
I don't know. He looked really good on the scale, not pudgy at all. I think he is trolling his way into LHW.

He clearly juices, and you don't miss weight by 20lbs and look like this by accident. Maybe I am wrong, but I think he will perform well.
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I don't know if he will perform well but if he was that injured, as some have said, then he should have pulled out of the fight. Even if he is injured cutting calories and closly watching his nutrition should keep his weight in check.

I agree that it wasn't an accident. Maybe he messed up his... "cycle" and enjoys weight lifting just a bit too much. Perhaps if he loses a few more fights he will troll his way into a poor modeling career like Rockhold.
 
too many narratives and speculations for the main event, I would proceed with caution. Vettori is not some world-beater, he is a great fighter no doubt with a good skill set, and he is improving. But who is his best win, Holland, Jack? He doesn't have the best finishing upside either, going three rounds with fighters like Sanchez and Ferreira who love to fall apart. Losing to Omari and then having to turn it on in 3rd to get a draw. He was losing that fight because he was getting pieced up for 2 rounds, he is still as hittable as ever although very durable.

Don't buy the injury or the lack of training stuff about Costa, he is huge always has been. Fighters like him have a big weight-cutting process and if something goes wrong at any point they ain't making it. If you follow his Instagram he is training as hard as ever.
Costas win over a more 'in-prime' Romero is better than anything Vettori has done. Maybe Vettori does get a finish eventually because something is wrong with Costa, every now and then when there is a massive narrative on this forum it does come true. But I'm personally not playing anything here other than live betting, its such a shit show.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
The whole situation reflects quite poorly on Costa's mental state, and we all know mental is so important in the fight game.
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Does it really? Everything about his mental state is just assumptions and speculations. Costa had an easy cut, made Vettori cut more weight than he needed to. Those are the facts.
 
I think I might be too biased vs Costa because of how badly he shit the bed vs Izzy. Not that he lost, not even that he got finished. But that he froze like a deer in headlights and essentially stood in front of Izzy like a big, dumb, frozen statue just waiting to be KO'd. Whitaker got KO'd by Izzy because Bob was too aggressive. Vettori was outclassed by Izzy but never stopped trying to win, managed to land a couple TD's (did nothing with them, but it shows he at least had a plan and was trying to implement it). Costa...looked like one of these:

upload_2021-10-22_20-21-44.jpeg


BUT...it's just one fight. I have to consciously remind myself of that. Costa does seem like a brawler with some skill and power but no ability to adapt in-fight. But I could be underselling his grit a little. The fight with Romero showed he is capable of fighting through adversity (even though he maybe shouldn't have gotten that decision).

Vettori has massively improved his grappling over the years. Hermannson is a dangerous guy on the ground and Marvin completely neutralized him. Maybe it's a struggle for him to take Costa down...maybe. And if so, Costa has the power to find a KO (yeah Marvin's chin is solid as hell but Costa does hit like a truck). But it Marvin does get Costa down, no way do I trust Costa's gas tank.
 
Considering cashing out my Choi/Dawson parlay @ +money, but hesitant because I got them both about a hundred points lower than where the line is.

I think Choi lands the harder shots which will sway the judges, even if Cacares has a higher output.

But the line now is too wide and I kind of want to sprinkle Caceres decision +450

Edit: I've been saying sprinkle since before Gianni was born, that guy is a moron
 
Initially said:
Nugameruena/Villanueva u2.5 @ -180 seems pretty good. Fight doesn't go the distance is -300
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Ike is a 37 year old bum who's gone the distance 4 times in 30 fights. 8 straight fights that ended in finish. He's not lasting 3 rounds. Nick went to decision his past 2 fights, but those being the only 2 decisions his career thus far. Doesn't go the distance feels like a pretty safe bet. Nick ITD is even too.
 
KingRyan said:
Care to list your early reads to aid my research!? Don't worry about the analysis
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Since no one made a thread, I'm looking at Teixeira, Sandhagen, Ramos, Amirkhani and Mustafaev as potential dogs. Most interested in Amirkhani SUB prop, but depends on tape.
 
Main_Card_MMA said:
Since no one made a thread, I'm looking at Teixeira, Sandhagen, Ramos, Amirkhani and Mustafaev as potential dogs. Most interested in Amirkhani SUB prop, but depends on tape.
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Sandhagen is an interesting bet
He will also win the first round most likely so you can live bet Yan after that
 
Macaque said:
Sandhagen is an interesting bet
He will also win the first round most likely so you can live bet Yan after that
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Yan was prepping for a wrestler so he doesn't have the cardio to get tds for 5 rounds. Yan is a coiled snake of a boxer, but Sandhagen is a world champ kickboxer. I feel like people on here were underrating him against Moraes and he put up a great show against Dillashaw, but made some mistakes after nearly getting the sub. I'd like him a lot more if he fought smart and used body and leg kicks at range for 3-5 rounds. He also trains at elevation so I doubt his cardio fades despite the late notice.
 
Main_Card_MMA said:
Since no one made a thread, I'm looking at Teixeira, Sandhagen, Ramos, Amirkhani and Mustafaev as potential dogs. Most interested in Amirkhani SUB prop, but depends on tape.
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Main_Card_MMA said:
Yan was prepping for a wrestler so he doesn't have the cardio to get tds for 5 rounds. Yan is a coiled snake of a boxer, but Sandhagen is a world champ kickboxer. I feel like people on here were underrating him against Moraes and he put up a great show against Dillashaw, but made some mistakes after nearly getting the sub. I'd like him a lot more if he fought smart and used body and leg kicks at range for 3-5 rounds. He also trains at elevation so I doubt his cardio fades despite the late notice.
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Yeah Sandhagen was looking like champ material at times in that fight and like a guy with ZERO fight IQ at others... The repeated spinning attacks cost him the W.
 
Captain Chesapeake said:
Leeroy Dec +400 and his ml +260 both value plays.

Highly doubt Choi ends up looking like -300
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You gguys totally called it... almost switched back to betting on Alex ML and SUB prop fml.

To be fair Choi almost lived up the the price but the illegal knee probably cost him the finish there.
 
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