UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori

Doggo_Stat_Collector said:
what do you guys think of Alex Submission prop?

Choi got rnc by Gavin which is Alex best sub. Seems plausible and at +950 odds its tempting
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A decent hedge for Choi bettors as well.

I don't see Alex being able to take Choi down and control him in any meaningful fashion myself tho.
 
Lol I'd definitely hold off from any bets on Costa / Vettori until after the weigh ins, who knows what surprises are left to come from this clown show. <Lmaoo>
 
Vettori would want to be getting a pay bump for accepting that bullshit
 
Now Costa is posting a video of him cutting weight and telling the UFC to, "stop the changes"



I don't even know anymore
 
So he lied about being 211. It wouldn't surprise me was actually drunk during the interview. Dude is struggling with something.
 
KingRyan said:
A decent hedge for Choi bettors as well.

I don't see Alex being able to take Choi down and control him in any meaningful fashion myself tho.
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sometimes you dont need to, you get back control and then climb on top. A trip or a stumble can do the trick. The selling point is the mma experience advantage; Choi has a muay thai background, so he'll have an edge on the feet, but i dont see him koing Alex, who has been tko once ever. the kid is scrappy fast and fights on his toes, he's very unpredictable.
 
Rodrigues v Park and the main event are the 2 x outstanding fights for me.
I like Robocop here and I think him being close to even is decent value.
He'll have massive size and strength advantage and he loves a takedown.
Park's jab and darting in and out worry me a little but I think Robocop will get him down and hurt him.
Main event I like Vettori for the same reasons as most on this thread. Too many variables to bet on him though so I'll leave it.
 
KingRyan said:
A decent hedge for Choi bettors as well.

I don't see Alex being able to take Choi down and control him in any meaningful fashion myself tho.
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I agree. I think Caceres has really good movement and can duck under to take Choi's back standing. Choi is so strong there that I think he reverses the takedown/clinch and breaks off or maybe gets on top. Choi should have this, but -300 is wide. He's parlay material for sure, but small. Might look like value if he starches Caceres early.

I'm gonna wait for the weighins and see what Costa looks like. Dude is a mess, but he can really throw for the first 7 minutes. Maybe his cardio will hold up better at this higher weight and we'll see him do work in the first 3, but Vettori will latch on and push him hard. The over might have value. Can't believe these are the fights we're talking about.
 
Chris Baynham said:
Rodrigues v Park and the main event are the 2 x outstanding fights for me.
I like Robocop here and I think him being close to even is decent value.
He'll have massive size and strength advantage and he loves a takedown.
Park's jab and darting in and out worry me a little but I think Robocop will get him down and hurt him.
Main event I like Vettori for the same reasons as most on this thread. Too many variables to bet on him though so I'll leave it.
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Rodriguez and Trinaldo all day.I wouldn't never touch that ME after all that's happening.
 
Originally I was leaning towards "Costa having some success with body shots early on, but fading hard by the 3rd due to Marvin's pressure, durability, and potential grappling. Resulting in a easy win for Vettori."

Now my prediction is "Costa swings for the fences hard in the first 1.5 rnds, gasses even faster, and he finds a way out of the match by the 4th."

I'd even put a side bet on "The reason I couldn't make weight was because of USADA" haha
 
Guld said:
Originally I was leaning towards "Costa having some success with body shots early on, but fading hard by the 3rd due to Marvin's pressure, durability, and potential grappling. Resulting in a easy win for Vettori."

Now my prediction is "Costa swings for the fences hard in the first 1.5 rnds, gasses even faster, and he finds a way out of the match by the 4th."

I'd even put a side bet on "The reason I couldn't make weight was because of USADA" haha
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Has he done any cardio at all this camp lol? If I was fighting Marvin Vettori I'd certainly want to make sure my cardio was as good as it can be.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Has he done any cardio at all this camp lol? If I was fighting Marvin Vettori I'd certainly want to make sure my cardio was as good as it can be.
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Against Izzy he fought completely different and way more tentative because he knew it was a 5 round fight.

He saw how terrribly that worked out for him, and I agree, I expect him to fully empty his gas tank within 10 minutes.

I said 3-4 days ago that Vettori should drop the first few rounds, which should present us with a good live betting opportunity. Sadistics said the same, so confidence increase on that.

My only play right now is big on fight doesn't go the distance @ -125, and Vettori ITD @ +250 moderate.

I'll end up live betting Vettori as well. I think people are looking at his fight versus Holland and thinking, "oh he's a decision machine".

Holland has better BJJ than Costa, a better gas tank, and doesn't quit mentally.

Costa will drown in the later rounds, I'll probably end up sprinkling rd4 and rd5 props as well. Fight doesn't go the distance covers a Costa ko, so the actual worst case outcome for me in this fight is a Vettori decision.

I hope Costa looks drained as fuck at the weigh ins tomorrow. We'll see.
 
Initially said:
Against Izzy he fought completely different and way more tentative because he knew it was a 5 round fight.

He saw how terrribly that worked out for him, and I agree, I expect him to fully empty his gas tank within 10 minutes.

I said 3-4 days ago that Vettori should drop the first few rounds, which should present us with a good live betting opportunity. Sadistics said the same, so confidence increase on that.

My only play right now is big on fight doesn't go the distance @ -125, and Vettori ITD @ +250 moderate.

I'll end up live betting Vettori as well. I think people are looking at his fight versus Holland and thinking, "oh he's a decision machine".

Holland has better BJJ than Costa, a better gas tank, and doesn't quit mentally.

Costa will drown in the later rounds, I'll probably end up sprinkling rd4 and rd5 props as well. Fight doesn't go the distance covers a Costa ko, so the actual worst case outcome for me in this fight is a Vettori decision.

I hope Costa looks drained as fuck at the weigh ins tomorrow. We'll see.
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I was having a little look at the Vettori sub props in rounds 4 and 5, I know Paulo is a black belt, but if he's gassed beyond belief I don't think it's unrealistic for Marvin to sub him.
 
I mean, nothing is ever 100%, but it has all the makings of Costa giving up the second the pressure builds.
-Aside from Izzy this is by far the toughest opponent Costa has faced
-Costa likely never had the cardio for a 5rd fight, and he is paired against somebody who's never been stopped and has gone 5 rounds multiple times recently.
-He folded hard under the pressure against Izzy
-He has been doing everything but fighting recently: Pulling out of fights, drinking wine/making excuses, complaining about fight pay, asking to be let go from contract/go off boxing, getting hair transplants etc.
-Now he's coming out with the weight cut issues, and trying to shift blame to Marvin. When pressured for a reason he says he'll explain after the fight.

I'm thinking Vettori by stoppage is a decent bet, given the factors.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
I was having a little look at the Vettori sub props in rounds 4 and 5, I know Paulo is a black belt, but if he's gassed beyond belief I don't think it's unrealistic for Marvin to sub him.
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Not at all. We saw black belt hunter rodolfo become the hunted and turn into a white belt when he was reaching cardiac arrest. Same thing can happen with Costa vs Vettori, and man are those sub 3/4/5 rounds odds super juicy.
 
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