UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho

[Stat_Collector]

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho | MMA Event | Tapology

UFC Fight Night took place Saturday, August 24, 2024 with 11 fights at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

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https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3414

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-3414

 

[Stat_Collector]

A few things i'm curious before i deep dive into tape:

Plays & Going against the narrative for this card:

1. JJontop & Medina can go the distance , latino fighters tend to have a good chin, it's not just a mexican thing. Public perception has this ending by ko.

edit : i think they get tko finished.

2. Edman kos Gerald in rnd 1-2 or hedge with Gerald by submission R3 if Edman gasses.

3. Curios to see if Calvalcani can be chinned or has shown signs of a weak chin before.

4. Does Danny Silva have it in him to stop Buzukya in rnd 1? He dropped Culabao who has a decent chin.

5. Is Caio a gasser past round 3? Jared has underrated ground game, he out grappled Vettori, and Caio never gained the 5 round experience Imavov did when he fought Strickland.

 

[Thesnake101]

Looking like a PFL card with all those big favorites.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Looking like a PFL card with all those big favorites.

i dont mind these cards , bookers are going to get a few over bets wrong because of the high perception.

Im expecting a Alex Reyes/Tom Nolan scenario to play out.

 

[Georges Hefner]

i dont mind these cards , bookers are going to get a few over bets wrong because of the high perception.

Im expecting a Alex Reyes/Tom Nolan scenario to play out.

Whatever happens, Im sure I will profit just like I always do

 

[Stat_Collector]

Whatever happens, Im sure I will profit just like I always do

𝐌𝐨𝐧𝐞𝐲𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐞
Dricus - 650/619 (-105) 110/100 (-110)
Culibao - 280/200 (-140)

𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐨𝐠
Glenn - 50/80 (+160)

𝐏𝐚𝐫𝐥𝐚𝐲
Gamrot dec/Dricus - 125/281 (+225)


𝐖𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐚𝐝𝐝 𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐃𝐮 𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐨𝐦𝐨𝐫𝐨𝐰

 

[B.Goetz]

A few things i'm curious before i deep dive into tape:

Plays & Going against the narrative for this card:

1. JJontop & Medina can go the distance , latino fighters tend to have a good chin, it's not just a mexican thing. Public perception has this ending by ko.

2. Edman kos Gerald in rnd 1-2 or hedge with Gerald by submission R3 if Edman gasses.

3. Curios to see if Calvalcani can be chinned or has shown signs of a weak chin before.

4. Does Danny Silva have it in him to stop Buzukya in rnd 1? He dropped Culabao who has a decent chin.

5. Is Caio a gasser past round 3? Jared has underrated ground game, he out grappled Vettori, and Caio never gained the 5 round experience Imavov did when he fought Strickland.

I think there's a good chance Llontop goes the distance against Slava Claus. Both are pure strikers with no ground game. I don't think it has so much to do with Llontop's chin as Slava being methodical (taken to R2 by lesser strikers than Llontop, I mean) and also hard to catch cleanly himself due to good head movement and distance management. I'm not entirely sure Slava wins a three round striking bout, although his striking is prettier and that plays well to judges. Llontop has youth and 4" of reach on his side.

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

Since taking up tracked betting on Sherdog I'm 3-0 and +23U. See above.

We are set to launch at our 4th premier opportunity, with our traders identifying huge value, and sending out the tip swiftly thereafter.

20U Edmen Shahbazyan -250

It's a fight between two guys whose career trajectories are diametrically opposed at this point.

Having another opportunity to grow my bankroll further is exciting. Weekend can't come quick enough

 

[DalchaLungiambula]

For those that are interested our model has Shahbazyan a 96% chance to win (-2400).

Accounting for injury or disqualification.

These opportunities don't come around that often, but when they do, it's prudent to make the most of it

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Morales isn't pressure fighter he wants to trade punch for punch, both are good at managing distance, Magny has more experience and better output, Morales owns power and counterpunches but overall I'm going with Magny cause of value.

 

[Georges Hefner]

is that not profit? @Stat_Collector

 

[Georges Hefner]

View attachment 1058629

Since taking up tracked betting on Sherdog I'm 3-0 and +23U. See above.

We are set to launch at our 4th premier opportunity, with our traders identifying huge value, and sending out the tip swiftly thereafter.

20U Edmen Shahbazyan -250

It's a fight between two guys whose career trajectories are diametrically opposed at this point.

Having another opportunity to grow my bankroll further is exciting. Weekend can't come quick enough

4-0 and 5th* opportunity

I was the witness and tracked the Nathaniel Wood bet that was valued at 95% . The man fed many families

 

[Goodfella86]

A few things i'm curious before i deep dive into tape:

Plays & Going against the narrative for this card:

1. JJontop & Medina can go the distance , latino fighters tend to have a good chin, it's not just a mexican thing. Public perception has this ending by ko.

2. Edman kos Gerald in rnd 1-2 or hedge with Gerald by submission R3 if Edman gasses.

3. Curios to see if Calvalcani can be chinned or has shown signs of a weak chin before.

4. Does Danny Silva have it in him to stop Buzukya in rnd 1? He dropped Culabao who has a decent chin.

5. Is Caio a gasser past round 3? Jared has underrated ground game, he out grappled Vettori, and Caio never gained the 5 round experience Imavov did when he fought Strickland.

I believe Cavalcanti was dropped by Cornolle. They both hurt each other in their fight. But Cavalcanti got the better of her. I need to rewatch.

Actually she wasn't dropped. But she was staggered with a spinning back fist.

And Jindrova kinda staggered her in rd 2, too.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Magny is a good underdog bet. There is no way Morales should be more expensive than Ian Machado Garry was last year. Garry is a future champ, and Morales is not. He’s several levels below. He’s around D Rod level

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think there's a good chance Llontop goes the distance against Slava Claus. Both are pure strikers with no ground game. I don't think it has so much to do with Llontop's chin as Slava being methodical (taken to R2 by lesser strikers than Llontop, I mean) and also hard to catch cleanly himself due to good head movement and distance management. I'm not entirely sure Slava wins a three round striking bout, although his striking is prettier and that plays well to judges. Llontop has youth and 4" of reach on his side.

LLontop was dropped by Oliveira in the regionals but he rose up fast and didn't show signs of shaky legs or being rattled. And Slava was dropped by Hooper which is a bad look, but man did he eat a lot of gnp and survive. I think this has an easy path to go the distance. Although I'm expecting bookers to set the over around **evens+ and the under at -120. It could end up being evens. I don't expect and fgtd to be anything past 150ish. I can also see the prices at -115 as well.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I believe Cavalcanti was dropped by Cornolle. They both hurt each other in their fight. But Cavalcanti got the better of her. I need to rewatch.

Actually she wasn't dropped. But she was staggered with a spinning back fist.

And Jindrova kinda staggered her in rd 2, too.

Thanks . Cornelle is so good though and Jindrova is a decent striker, i can forgive these. I was hoping that she showed some vulnerability to a regular mma generalist type fighter. But both of those girls are durable, i see the over being likely , and at -250 odds likely. Nunes failed to ko Pascual.. There is also a wide size advantage for Cavalcanti.

she was getting brutalized by Jindrova , I time stamped it, it's tempting to play that Nunes ko prop because she can get a standing tko. But not feeling it.

 

[B.Goetz]

I'm expecting bookers to set the over around 150+ and the under at -120.

Those odds don't make sense. The favourite has to be a bigger number than the dog odds.

 

[HoiceNJuicy]

Magny is a good underdog bet. There is no way Morales should be more expensive than Ian Machado Garry was last year. Garry is a future champ, and Morales is not. He’s several levels below. He’s around D Rod level

A Magny, Cannonier, Meerschaert underdog parlay is a long shot, but not completely implausible. Might be worth throwing $5 or $10 on, just for the hell of it.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Those odds don't make sense. The favourite has to be a bigger number than the dog odds.

that's true. evens* is much more realistic.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I think what i said about Medina and LLontop is true, they both will see the scorecards, so long as Reece and Slavaclause play their roles as the favorite.

Unless they get cut stoppage.