Ufc fight night 256 underdog pick of the night

[doozer]

Virtually every card there is a fighter who beats the odds. Which fighter do you think is most likely to this card?

Gilbert Burns (+300) vs. Michael Morales (-500)

Paul Craig (+475) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-650)

Sodiq Yusuff (+105) vs. Mairon Santos (-135)

Dustin Stoltzfus (+180) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (-220)

Julian Erosa (+155) vs. Melquizael Costa (-185)

Gabriel Green (+110) vs. Matheus Camilo (-140)

Jared Gordon (-170) vs. Thiago Moisés (+140)

Luana Santos (+130) vs. Tainara Lisboa (-160)

Elise Reed (+350) vs. Denise Gomes (-450)

Park Hyun-sung (-200) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+160)

Tecia Pennington (-300) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+240)

Yadier Del Valle (-450) vs. Connor Matthews (+350)

Both my Santos picks in the last 2 cards gave me much needed wins to bring my record back up to 8-8. This week I am going with Sodiq Yusuff.

Shoutout to past winners. For UFC on ESPN 67 @Croton @Ares Black @Domitian @WoozyFailGuy @Koala @wufabufa @Doughie99 @Serge421 @TITS (questionably, I think they made their pick after the fight, but didn’t know the result, only they know if it was a true pick). For UFC 315 @Bend NvR Break @Quinn_Uncaged @Jinx_AA @SalvadorAllende @AmonTobin @Bradillac

Also I have decided I won’t be doing these for road to ufc cards as they don’t have fighters signed to the ufc, just too many unknowns that I would have to do deep dives or make wild guesses.

 

[Koala]

Yusuff and Gordon

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

Final Form Giblert

 

[SalvadorAllende]

Yusuff and might be Giblert.

 

[wufabufa]

On yussef and Gordon......but I always pray for Lloyd Irvin guys to get wrecked so in my heart I hope Yussef has a terrible fight even though he won't.

 

[Rhood]

Where did you find Jared Gordon at +140?
Caesar's has him as the favorite at -140

 

[Necrocrawler]

Going to be 2-3 after this week but...

Well...
Good options:

Luana Pinheiro to save her job:

Pinheiro went 3-0 on her first three. Even though i'm still salty since her first fight against Randa Markos (she and her coach deserved an Oscar for that DQ), i believe she has the tools to beat Torres... But not the mindset.

Julian Erosa: I like Costa, but Julian definitely has the tools to beat him.

Craig x Bellato: Bellato seems to have an awfull IQ while Craig... Isn't really good at nothing besides BJJ. I can see Craig luring Bellato in one of those classic Craig's triangles...

So... My pick this week will be... Carlos Hernandez

Hernandez has lost only to very good guys... Not saying Park isn't good... But having him coming from a 1 and half year layoff doesn't help much.

We may see some ring rustyness in Park, making Hernandez to actually nod some rounds

 

[doozer]

Where did you find Jared Gordon at +140?
Caesar's has him as the favorite at -140

Good catch. I don’t take them off the betting site because it is too hard to copy and paste, so I just take them off other sites. In this case https://www.forbes.com/sites/trentr...fc-vegas-106-fight-card-opening-betting-odds/. I checked a betting site and you’re right. It is possible the odds have flipped since they posted (I posted the most recent site I could find), but it wouldn’t be the first time they have gotten them backwards. I edited my post. Thanks.

 

[mkess101]

Gabe Green

 

[Serge421]

Thiago Moises!

 

[Team SerJoe]

Moises is entering his prime while Gordon is arguably past his. Marshall Walker Gave Marion Santos hell and Sodiq seems more skilled albeit slightly.
So yeah I think Moises and Yusuf.

 

[BFoe]

Sodiq and Moises imo.

 

[Bend NvR Break]

Yusuff

 

[Goodfella86]

Erosa by sub
Green by sub
Yusuf by decision

Goodfella by bankruptcy

 

[The_Renaissance]

Paul Craig (+475) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-650)

Sodiq Yusuff (+105) vs. Mairon Santos (-135)

Julian Erosa (+155) vs. Melquizael Costa (-185)

Jared Gordon (-170) vs. Thiago Moisés (+140)




Those. Craig, especially. I dont think he wins but those are huge odds and he's a guy who can pull off a mad submission from nowhere, plus, Bellato isn't elite himself. He has questionable elements of his game.

 

[doozer]

Paul Craig (+475) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-650)

Sodiq Yusuff (+105) vs. Mairon Santos (-135)

Julian Erosa (+155) vs. Melquizael Costa (-185)

Jared Gordon (-170) vs. Thiago Moisés (+140)




Those. Craig, especially. I dont think he wins but those are huge odds and he's a guy who can pull off a mad submission from nowhere, plus, Bellato isn't elite himself. He has questionable elements of his game.

Agreed though we aren’t doing best bets here just the underdog we feel will most likely win.

 

[Ares Black]

A lot of interesting underdog picks on this card.

Elise Reed is good value, she's a big underdog and has a decent chance.

Paul Craig will most likely get blasted but he always has a chance of catching a submission.

My official pick is Sodiq Yusuff. Santos is good but so is Super Sodiq, and he's a lot more proven.

I also have a weird feeling that Stoltzfuß will pull off the upset.

 

[jeff7b9]

Paul Craig.

Dude has a track record of winning when he should lose and losing when he should win.

 

[doozer]

Paul Craig.

Dude has a track record of winning when he should lose and losing when he should win.

So true