Townsend is a +250 underdog, despite having a plausible path to victory in the fight,
What is this "plausible path"? I noted to you that he needs a perfect home run shot in the 1st round. Considering Todorovic's intelligence and chin, the chances of this occurring are 10% at best, or the equivalent of +900. That's the definition of implausible.
There are other ways he can win, but all of them are even less plausible than that.
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Tordovic could go out there and knock him out in the first round as he has done to most of his opponents, but that is not how I see it going versus a fighter whose been knocked out once in 32 fights.
Who said anything about Townsend being knocked out? Where did that factor anywhere in my analysis? Does someone who lost money betting Townsend against Bevon Lewis and Devin Clark, two inferior fighters to Dusko with very weak chins to boot, feel better because Townsend heard the final bell?
Also, it's one thing if you're a casual fan, but if you're arguing on whether to bet a fighter or not, at least learn how to spell the guy's name correctly. "Todorovic" is not that difficult.
Tordovic has only been out of round one three times, and his only time seeing the third round was in his Contender Series fight.
Yeah, and Todorovic's cardio looked great going all 3 rounds despite being jet-lagged and not having any of his normal corner with him. This shows what, exactly? That Dusko is smart and has excellent endurance?
Nevermind that Teddy Ash is roughly 10 times the fighter Daquean Townsend is.
During that fight he had his opponent pressed up against the cage the for the entirety of the match. There are many refs who would have separated him and his opponent as he was not working for a lot of that time after the first round.
Considering that Todorovic was landing hard, meaningful punches in the clinch the whole time, it would be a shitty ref indeed who would have separated them.
Also, the few instances in which his opponent broke from the back of the cage he lit Tordovic up with combos and Tordovic didn't even have his hands up he was so out of energy; he would have been knocked out in the second round if it went ten seconds longer.
Have you seen any Todorovic fights other than that one? He normally keeps his hands low; that's part of his style, not a sign of him being tired.
And while claiming that he would have been knocked out with 10 more seconds in round 2 is silly, it's true that Ash was having good success in the stand-up.
And maybe if the discussion were a rematch between Todorovic and Ash, Ash might be worth a play at +250. Unfortunately, it's Townsend, a far inferior striker with less power, less speed, worse technique, much worse takedown defense, and vastly worse cardio.
If he tries to fight Townsend that way after the first round then he will almost surely get his back taken by Dequan while standing and submitted shortly thereafter.
Wow. This is a bolder prediction than the guy who thought Costa would submit Adesanya in round 5!
So a guy with some of the worst jits I've seen in the UFC on the male side, Dequan Townsend, a white belt whose only real submission at this level is a guillotine, is going to quickly take the back of a skilled submission grappler in Todorovic and submit him?
I'm very curious to see your bets in the official topic now.
