UFC Fight Night 179: Holm vs. Aldana

condit is gonna fucking lose to court mcgee isn’t he

then he’s gonna retire (which i believe is the law if you lose to court mcgee)

awful timeline

edit: only person to have another ufc fight after losing to court mcgee is robert whittaker
 
LOL dequan is back? How?? But yeah dogshit card.

I actually think Dequan wins this one by 2nd or 3rd round finish. Tordovic has only been to R3 once (his last fight) and is not the same caliber fighter of a Clark/Lungiambula.

That KO by Dalcha was the first of Dequans entire career, through 32 fights, and if you watch some of his fights outside the UFC you will see he is pretty well rounded and has decent cardio.

Townsend is +250, which is way too high, definitely taking him at this line. I would never guarantee he wins this fight, but versus a debuting fighter who has only seen round three once he shouldn't be much of an underdog if at all.

Also like Jinh Yu Frey @+110.
 
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Carlos Condit??
giphy.gif
right? <45>
 
Also, it’s a fight Night card. Not a full UFC event. You whiners need to stop complaining, you’ve got to have cards to build lesser talent.
 
gosh darn it lol.

some early research on Bhullar
  • trains with Bosser
  • Unified MMA champ in canada
  • was going to fight on contenders series but they bumped him to this card
  • managed by Ali
  • already been to fight island for Bosser so won't be too shell shocked about the experience
  • lanky dude that uses his reach well
  • doesn't seem to have the most power in his hands
  • average if not below average speed in his striking
some tape:


early lean: Bhullar is pretty well rounded but Breese might be too big of a jump for him. If breese comes in around -165 to -185 i'll take a stab at him
 
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i hope somebody does a lot more tape than me and convinces me not to go really big on GDR at -105.

I don't see anybody not named Amanda Nunes beating her.
 
I'm favoring Aldana v Holm. Holm has not looked convincing lately. Her last fight she scrapped it. I'm taking Aldana at straight odds.
 
Condit is one of my favorite fighters and it's sad I can't confidently pick him against Mcgee
 
On Aldana and and GDR. GDR only loses to Nunes and was actually winning a round or two in that last fight. Holm is fade material for me these days. Gotta tape still but I'm confident they both win.
 
Pena has an uncanny ability of making fights ugly with her forward pressure and smothering game and beating opponents that are more skilled than herself. I already put a small bet on GDR, but I'm not all that confident.
 
Pena has an uncanny ability of making fights ugly with her forward pressure and smothering game and beating opponents that are more skilled than herself. I already put a small bet on GDR, but I'm not all that confident.
Before tape I thought Pena should be able to get takedowns vs GDR. But after seeing Pena's miserable performance vs Montano where she actually showed to be pretty weak in the clinch and also to not have a great takedown game I feel pretty confident in GDR now.
 
i hope somebody does a lot more tape than me and convinces me not to go really big on GDR at -105.

I don't see anybody not named Amanda Nunes beating her.
I wish I could help but I smashed that already:p
 
i hope somebody does a lot more tape than me and convinces me not to go really big on GDR at -105.

I don't see anybody not named Amanda Nunes beating her.
Nobody in that division has the take downs to take the fight to the ground and nullify GDR's striking. I need to tape Pena but i dont recall any decent take downs from her.
 
On Aldana and and GDR. GDR only loses to Nunes and was actually winning a round or two in that last fight. Holm is fade material for me these days. Gotta tape still but I'm confident they both win.
Correct me if I'm wrong but Holly has only lost to the top of the top in the divisions, Miesha, Valentina, Nunes, Cyborg, GDR. Plus, they were all better strikers than her who were able to outstrike her (Miesha won with a hailmary submission so that doesnt count). Not to shit on Aldana, because I'm also Mexican, but I dont see her being that elite to topple Holm or outstrike her when she backpeddals along the cage then goes "eeisshh, eeiishh, eeisshh" on her. I still need to do more tape on Aldana, I know she just KO'd Vieira but she's never known to pack that much power on her punches, much less to stop Holly.
 
Correct me if I'm wrong but Holly has only lost to the top of the top in the divisions, Miesha, Valentina, Nunes, Cyborg, GDR. Plus, they were all better strikers than her who were able to outstrike her (Miesha won with a hailmary submission so that doesnt count). Not to shit on Aldana, because I'm also Mexican, but I dont see her being that elite to topple Holm or outstrike her when she backpeddals along the cage then goes "eeisshh, eeiishh, eeisshh" on her. I still need to do more tape on Aldana, I know she just KO'd Vieira but she's never known to pack that much power on her punches, much less to stop Holly.

Based on pure output alone, Aldana lands at a 2-1 clip on Holm. Don’t see how this goes any other way other than Aldana decision or another TKO.

yeah you’re not wrong about her only losing to the top competition, but she’s 38, has a lot of miles so I’m fading her. Aldana lands 6.16 sig strikes per min. Compared to Hollys 2.75. Holly can “Ish” All day long, she’s still going to get pieced up and lose rounds.
 
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I actually think Dequan wins this one by 2nd or 3rd round finish. Tordovic has only been to R3 once (his last fight) and is not the same caliber fighter of a Clark/Lungiambula.

That KO by Dalcha was the first of Dequans entire career, through 32 fights, and if you watch some of his fights outside the UFC you will see he is pretty well rounded and has decent cardio.

Townsend is +250, which is way too high, definitely taking him at this line. I would never guarantee he wins this fight, but versus a debuting fighter who has only seen round three once he shouldn't be much of an underdog if at all.

A fighter who lacks knockout power, has poor takedown defense, poor cardio, poor striking defense, and can be bullied in the clinch is somehow going to beat a constantly improving young prospect with at least a decent chin, decent wrestling, decent cardio, and a decent clinch game?

Anything can happen in MMA, but outside of hitting a homerun head kick or knee in round 1, I can't see any remotely plausible scenario where Townsend wins. It doesn't help that Todorivic is both smart and tough.

Then again, I don't understand the perspective of a lot of posts in this topic. There are some reasons to doubt Holm, but where is any of this confidence on Aldana coming from?

The same person who had a split that could have gone either way against Pudilova, looked very even striking against a fat, washed-up Bethe Correia, lost a close fight to Raquel Pennington, and then looked fairly even striking against a grappler with clumsy stand-up in Vieira before landing the best punch of her life has any kind of certain striking edge over Holm?
 
I put two units on Ayari, I remember he had decent fundamentals in his losses to Stevie Ray and Darren Till. I can't find much tape on who he is fighting other then his KO flying knee loss in the UFC. From limited tape Luigi is smaller scrappy with some ground game. Ayari has fought much better competition and should have enough fundamentals to win this.. Maybe -135 cap-- so the line isn't too off. Not a crazy bet
 
Then again, I don't understand the perspective of a lot of posts in this topic. There are some reasons to doubt Holm, but where is any of this confidence on Aldana coming from?

The same person who had a split that could have gone either way against Pudilova, looked very even striking against a fat, washed-up Bethe Correia, lost a close fight to Raquel Pennington, and then looked fairly even striking against a grappler with clumsy stand-up in Vieira before landing the best punch of her life has any kind of certain striking edge over Holm?

The fight is a toss up to be honest. I don't think anybody thinks Aldana is a dead cert here but Holm has been in some wars, she is 38 (almost 39) and looks to be on her way out.

Aldana is coming off a great KO win and will be coming in with a lot of confidence.

Aldana by UD is the most likely outcome.
 
A fighter who lacks knockout power, has poor takedown defense, poor cardio, poor striking defense, and can be bullied in the clinch is somehow going to beat a constantly improving young prospect with at least a decent chin, decent wrestling, decent cardio, and a decent clinch game?

Anything can happen in MMA, but outside of hitting a homerun head kick or knee in round 1, I can't see any remotely plausible scenario where Townsend wins. It doesn't help that Todorivic is both smart and tough.

Then again, I don't understand the perspective of a lot of posts in this topic. There are some reasons to doubt Holm, but where is any of this confidence on Aldana coming from?

The same person who had a split that could have gone either way against Pudilova, looked very even striking against a fat, washed-up Bethe Correia, lost a close fight to Raquel Pennington, and then looked fairly even striking against a grappler with clumsy stand-up in Vieira before landing the best punch of her life has any kind of certain striking edge over Holm?

Townsend is a +250 underdog, despite having a plausible path to victory in the fight, which is why I would consider taking him at that price. Tordovic could go out there and knock him out in the first round as he has done to most of his opponents, but that is not how I see it going versus a fighter whose been knocked out once in 32 fights.

Tordovic has only been out of round one three times, and his only time seeing the third round was in his Contender Series fight. During that fight he had his opponent pressed up against the cage the for the entirety of the match. There are many refs who would have separated him and his opponent as he was not working for a lot of that time after the first round.

Also, the few instances in which his opponent broke from the back of the cage he lit Tordovic up with combos and Tordovic didn't even have his hands up he was so out of energy; he would have been knocked out in the second round if it went ten seconds longer.

If he tries to fight Townsend that way after the first round then he will almost surely get his back taken by Dequan while standing and submitted shortly thereafter. I am not rooting against Tordovic he has a ton of drive and heart. I just view his demonstrated skillset as impressive but easily exploitable by more experienced opponents even if they have an inferior skillset.

If you want to back him you should. I was just breaking down how I see the fight playing out as I know it is easy for many to discount Dequan after how terrible he looked at LHW.
 
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