UFC 316 underdog pick of the night

[doozer]

Virtually every card there is a fighter who beats the odds. Which fighter do you think is most likely to this card?

• Merab Dvalishvili (c) -300 vs. Sean O'Malley +240, bantamweight title
• Kayla Harrison -600 vs. Julianna Pena (c) +425, women's bantamweight title
• Joe Pyfer -400 vs. Kelvin Gastelum +310, middleweights
• Patchy Mix -170 vs. Mario Bautista +140, bantamweights
• Kevin Holland -280 vs. Vicente Luque +230, welterweights
• Joshua Van -550 vs. Bruno Silva +400, flyweights
• Azamat Murzakanov -550 vs. Brendson Ribeiro +400, light heavyweights
• Serghei Spivac -140 vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta +120, heavyweights
• Wang Cong -550 vs. Ariane da Silva +400, women's flyweights
• Yoo Joo-sang -500 vs. Jeka Saragih +380, featherweights
• Quillan Salkilld -440 vs. Yanal Ashmouz +340, lightweights

Last week Filho lost bringing my record to 8-10. I am struggling this week, and perhaps for good reason. Looking at the odds I can understand why I’m not confident on any of the underdogs as there is only 1 fight that’s close. Top on my list right now is Luque. I was also looking at Ashmouz but I really know nothing about the guy. Maybe the solid fundamentals of Bautista. I can’t believe it but part of me is considering picking O’Malley. This is crazy, not because he’s a worse pick than all those other heavy dogs but because Merab is a lock for me. I picked him in their first fight and against Umar. But besides the Sean being injured and really focusing there is the fact that he has ways to improve and Merab is just rinse and repeat, and my mind keeps coming back to that fifth round multiple body shots kept hurting him. What if now that Sean has found that he starts them in the first. Merabs chin is unbreakable but those body shots were killing him. Anyways I’m almost done with the videos I normally watch in advance but I’ve still got a couple days to make my final pick.

Shoutout to last cards winners @Kowboy On Sherdog? (Not sure exactly what was your official pick you listed a couple peoples opinions, but one was very specific for big odds and the other was just a fight). And that’s it. It wasn’t exactly an exciting card.

 

[prime_lobov]

Pena. I get that she’s unskilled and unathletic but I think Kayla is too jacked, and prone to gassing. Julie can outlast her and either run away with a decision in the later rounds, or maybe even get a finish if Kayla is totally exhausted. Pena needs to get on her bike, defend takedowns, and utilize the strategy of letting her face get punched so that Kayla’s arms gas.

 

[Rampage_Jackson]

Sugaaaaaaaaa

 

[doozer]

Pena. I get that she’s unskilled and unathletic but I think Kayla is too jacked, and prone to gassing. Julie can outlast her and either run away with a decision in the later rounds, or maybe even get a finish if Kayla is totally exhausted. Pena needs to get on her bike, defend takedowns, and utilize the strategy of letting her face get punched so that Kayla’s arms gas.

There is definitely a possible path to victory there. I definitely think the odds are inflated due to Penas unlikability and bettors wanting her to lose.

 

[EndlessCritic]

So many of those lines feel way too wide. Wang Cong is getting way too much respect again. Not sure how Holland is such a favorite either.

 

[Aurelian]

Pena. I get that she’s unskilled and unathletic but I think Kayla is too jacked, and prone to gassing. Julie can outlast her and either run away with a decision in the later rounds, or maybe even get a finish if Kayla is totally exhausted. Pena needs to get on her bike, defend takedowns, and utilize the strategy of letting her face get punched so that Kayla’s arms gas.

I have Pena in a 2 leg parlay with Spivac as the other pick, but if I had to choose just one dog here it would be Mario. Pena is live though and at those odds you can't pass it up. She was +550 yesterday so those odds have moved quite a bit.

 

[Platinum Perry Mason]

Bautista and Luque...if I wasn't trying to light money on fire.
Puting money on Pena is mega LOL.
That's like betting on a power lifting competition and you're puting your cash on the guy that benches 100lbs less.
She's going to have to come with something stronger than a plucky attitude to stop from being tossed on her head for 25 minutes.

 

[Leonard Haid]

Joe Pyfer loss by low fight IQ.

 

[Kowboy On Sherdog]

@doozer

If you are interested

 

[Aurelian]

8-10 on picking just underdogs isn't that terrible. If you were 8-10 and picking favorites that's just lol.

 

[mkess101]

So many of those lines feel way too wide. Wang Cong is getting way too much respect again. Not sure how Holland is such a favorite either.

Cong is gonna style on Lipski.

However...my official pick is with ya on the second one. I'm going with Luque over Holland.

Holland has shown he can be taken down and controlled. Luque is an underrated grappler imo. The way Luque crumbled and gave up vs Buckley was concerning and I thought maybe he was done. But really quick slick sub vs Themba tells me that AT LEAST he's not just showing up for a paycheck. I think Luque's chin may be in question at this point but I think he goes the TD route here and tries to mimic what Gunnar did. And I think that makes this a competitive fight.

 

[mkess101]

I have Pena in a 2 leg parlay with Spivac as the other pick, but if I had to choose just one dog here it would be Mario. Pena is live though and at those odds you can't pass it up. She was +550 yesterday so those odds have moved quite a bit.

Bautista is gonna be wearing a Patchy backpack all night. That's gonna be my biggest play. Mix should be AT LEAST -250 here and maybe more imo. Obviously the caveat "it's MMA and anything can happen" applies. And Bautista is not a bum. But I really don't see how he stops Patchy from doing what he does.

 

[doozer]

So many of those lines feel way too wide. Wang Cong is getting way too much respect again. Not sure how Holland is such a favorite either.

I did wonder about picking against Wang I just didn’t feel very confident . But now that I realize I don’t feel confident in anything maybe I should take a closer look.

 

[doozer]

@doozer

If you are interested

I like Shillin and Duffy because they break them all down for me, but I’ll definitely watch this one too.

 

[doozer]

8-10 on picking just underdogs isn't that terrible. If you were 8-10 and picking favorites that's just lol.

Thanks. Yeah if I was putting money on them I think I would be on top still. Some of my picks were very close odds but some were 2-1 dogs.

 

[Aurelian]

Bautista is gonna be wearing a Patchy backpack all night. That's gonna be my biggest play. Mix should be AT LEAST -250 here and maybe more imo. Obviously the caveat "it's MMA and anything can happen" applies. And Bautista is not a bum. But I really don't see how he stops Patchy from doing what he does.

I'm not very confident in that Mario pick, it's more of a lack of confidence in all the other dogs here. I'm damn sure not picking Waldo, or Kelvin, or Bruno Silva etc. Bautista is at least in his prime. The theme is you have to pick a dog.

I'm cool with the Pena pick though since I bet her, but that's mostly odds based.

 

[mkess101]

Bautista and Luque...if I wasn't trying to light money on fire.
Puting money on Pena is mega LOL.
That's like betting on a power lifting competition and you're puting your cash on the guy that benches 100lbs less.
She's going to have to come with something stronger than a plucky attitude to stop from being tossed on her head for 25 minutes.

I'm kinda highjacking the thread so @doozer just tell me to STFU if ya want haha.

Pena/Harrison: Harrison is gonna ragdoll the absolute F*ck out of Pena early. And she might finish her. But if she doesn't...there's a realistic chance Harrison gasses. The cut is brutal for her carrying all that muscle. She slowed a ton in her only other 5 rounder vs Pacheco. So...how to play it? ML is worthless. Kayla itd doesn’t have enough appeal at -170 or whatever even though I do think it's the most likely outcome. On this one I'm gonna take a chance on Harrison gassing badly and fading so much that she gets finished late the same way Pena survived Nunes blitz the first fight and then finished. Pena rd 4 is +4000. Pena rd 5 +5000. Tiny sprinkles on those at massive odds is my play.

 

[doozer]

I'm not very confident in that Mario pick, it's more of a lack of confidence in all the other dogs here. I'm damn sure not picking Waldo, or Kelvin, or Bruno Silva etc. Bautista is at least in his prime. The theme is you have to pick a dog.

I'm cool with the Pena pick though since I bet her, but that's mostly odds based.

Yeah it’s a tough card to pick dogs. I always pick something I believe will win. But this card I was actually thinking. When it says the dog “most likely” to break through I might actually be picking someone I expect to lose. That’s what I was thinking with O’Malley. Like I think Merab is going to win. But maybe even if I think O’Malley is going to lose it doesn’t mean that he still can’t also be the one I feel is most likely to beat the odds.

 

[Aurelian]

Yeah it’s a tough card to pick dogs. I always pick something I believe will win. But this card I was actually thinking. When it says the dog “most likely” to break through I might actually be picking someone I expect to lose. That’s what I was thinking with O’Malley. Like I think Merab is going to win. But maybe even if I think O’Malley is going to lose it doesn’t mean that he still can’t also be the one I feel is most likely to beat the odds.

Yeah I don't expect Suga to win either, but he DID have Merab hurt in the last fight. Perhaps he can pull a rabbit out of a hat. Maybe, just maybe. It's not really a bad pick imo if that's your logic.

 

[doozer]

I'm kinda highjacking the thread so @doozer just tell me to STFU if ya want haha.

Pena/Harrison: Harrison is gonna ragdoll the absolute F*ck out of Pena early. And she might finish her. But if she doesn't...there's a realistic chance Harrison gasses. The cut is brutal for her carrying all that muscle. She slowed a ton in her only other 5 rounder vs Pacheco. So...how to play it? ML is worthless. Kayla itd doesn’t have enough appeal at -170 or whatever even though I do think it's the most likely outcome. On this one I'm gonna take a chance on Harrison gassing badly and fading so much that she gets finished late the same way Pena survived Nunes blitz the first fight and then finished. Pena rd 4 is +4000. Pena rd 5 +5000. Tiny sprinkles on those at massive odds is my play.

I love the conversation and it keeps the thread active which brings in more people in to make their picks. So by all means speak your mind!
I do wonder if Harrison’s loss to Pacheco was just a one of like Nunes vs Pena but Pena definitely has a possible path here, and those odds feel like solid bets!