UFC 303 - Pereira vs. Procházka II (Jun 29th) @ Las Vegas

I'm a bit torn on the Ortega/Lopes matchup.
Ortega seems to be able to hold his own and find a way to nab up potential fight ending moments.
On the other hand, I feel like Lopes will have a similar speed advantage that Yair had, and that Ortega's face will be smashed consistently while the fight stays standing.
I feel like, if Ortega does win, it's by stoppage (likely sub), but all of those face smashings add up and I could easily see him losing by decision or by stoppage as well if Lopes really puts it all together.
Lopes ML hedged with an Ortega by stoppage seems like the play to make. Or just bet on Ortega Not to Win by Decision?
I think the over in the Ortega fight is the likely outcome actually, they’re both quite durable on the feet with a good chin and on the ground I feel they have similar skills. For me the fight goes to distance
 
I don't have solid, betting analysis for this one, but as far as Lopes/Ortega goes.. Lopes impressed the hell out of me as a short replacement nobody vs Evloev, an undefeated -900 favorite. Sure, he had a rough second round, and not the best third round.

Ended up on bottom in round one half tripping during a wild swing from Evloev. Never stopped fighting from bottom, constantly trying subs, at least one which looked close. Had round three sub attempts as well. That was a massive step up in competition when he was still mostly unknown. He's tough and definitely no quitter. He's impressed me each fight since, and I think he can definitely beat Ortega, and I'll pick him to win.

Ortega has only lost to top competition, but a combination of not a ton of recent activity, getting older, taken a ton of damage + injury.. I'm going with Lopes. But I certainly wouldn't bet a lot on it.

(edit: WOULDN'T, not would bet a lot.. sorry)
 
Last edited:
Does Mvp lose some credit for his lost to Perry in bareknuckle?

I side with Garry just because he's younger and knows how to fight outside as well. And i see Garry being better at delivery powerful punches where Mvp is likely to hit an run and point fight.

Mvp has fought some grapplers that I know Garry would have put away. Just saying , -125 looks pretty good for the shinier prospect.

I'm usually a $25/unit bettor but I went ahead and put 1k on Garry here. Now, I'm going to be at the fight (my first ever live event!) and I just wanted to have a fun mega bet for kicks -- it's vegas money I can lose and have for this purpose -- but at -125 I do find it to be excellent value. For all the reasons you mentioned, along with Garry having an almost decade age advantage, the possibility of grappling (even though he hasn't shown it yet) that could easily deliver him the victory, excellent coaching and an ability to follow a gameplan with strict discipline where other fighters might be tempted to fall into the traps laid by someone like MVP. I was also unimpressed by MVP's display against Holland, a fighter who I think Garry would easily dismantle.

Garry by Decision.
 
For sure, but grit and durability matter too. Yair is clearly superior standing to Ortega but the ability to survive and rally has to be considered. It allowed Ortega to come back and beat a clearly superior striker despite being hurt badly early on.

That said, there's definitely some unknowns here on the Lopes side. He's definitely dynamic, but how will that translate to a step up in competition. Didn't work out well at all yesterday for Aliskerov...
Big difference going from Sodig to Ortega compared to going from shadow of a ghost of not ever been that good at least at mw Alves to Whittaker...
Also theres a possibility that he already fought the best fw in the world (or top 4 if were being conservative) in Movsar and fought great.

That being said you guys might be onto something with the matchup thing. Ortega has legendary durability so it means Diego would have to fight perfect for two rounds.
 
As for MVP vs Garry I think we see this end itd. MVP brings the show under the bright lights and Garry is game for counter. Dont buy the predictions of a boring fight here.
 
As for MVP vs Garry I think we see this end itd. MVP brings the show under the bright lights and Garry is game for counter. Dont buy the predictions of a boring fight here.

Where was that vs Holland though? Do t get me wrong, MVP fought a smart fight and definitely gave himself the vest chance to win by staying elusive and not getting into big exchanges. But that was his UFC debut, if he was gonna try to make a splash I'd have thought that would be it. He knows how dangerous Garry is, I could see him being conservative again.
 
Jourdain seems good for that price.

So much better competition in recent years and coming off a split with Woodson.

Jean kinda throws a lot of wide loopy power shots, but not a lot of substance there. Seems like that chaotic style falls perfectly into Jourdain's style that is fundamentally cleaner. He also got hit a fair amount in his dwcs fight.
 
Last edited:
As for MVP vs Garry I think we see this end itd. MVP brings the show under the bright lights and Garry is game for counter. Dont buy the predictions of a boring fight here.

Where was that vs Holland though? Do t get me wrong, MVP fought a smart fight and definitely gave himself the vest chance to win by staying elusive and not getting into big exchanges. But that was his UFC debut, if he was gonna try to make a splash I'd have thought that would be it. He knows how dangerous Garry is, I could see him being conservative again.
MVP is a showman and a point fighter. Yes, he will attempt some explosive moves in a fight, but it's just one explosive move at a time that works against lower level guys but doesn't usually work against higher level fighters.

MVP will attempt an explosive move or two against Ian Garry, but will mostly be doing the same exact thing he does in every fight: jump in and out to point fight, that's it. He literally doesn't do anything else beside point fighting and throwing 2 explosive moves maximum per fight.

Aside from Goiti Yamauchi injuring his own leg, MVP hasn't finished anyone in 3 years. In fact, if you look at the guys MVP has finished (not counting Yamauchi) since his knockout loss to Douglas Lima in May 2019, then you'll see that he finished:

  • Richard Kiely 3-3 (who?)
  • Giovanni Melillo 14-10 (who?)
  • Shinsho Anzai 9-6 (a 5'7 guy who fought at welterweight in the UFC on 4 Asia cards long ago; MVP is 6'3)
  • Derek Anderson 18-4 (MVP's best knockout win pre-UFC. Anderson beat a few good names in Bellator when he was a lightweight, then fought a few times at welterweight and lost to MVP because he's too slow, then he was released from Bellator and took 2 years off before returning in 2023 to fight a guy who was 0-0 in MMA and is now 0-1 after losing to Anderson. Even though Anderson did beat three good names in Bellator at lightweight, most of his wins are from Xplode, which is one of the two popular organizations in America who would basically feed certain guys free wins against debuting fighters or guys with losing records in order to inflate their record; the other MMA organization that gives certain fighters free wins is Gladiator Challenge, which Anderson has fought for twice before, and his most recent win was in Gladiator Challenge against the 0-0 guy.)
So, in 5 years, MVP has only shown that he is able to "bring the show under the bright lights" against cans, and goes to decision against decent fighters. You can even disect his knockout wins pre-5 years ago, and you'll notice they're over cans and/or guys who usually fought at 155 but went up to 170 to fight MVP. He literally has no knockout wins over good fighters who are true welterweights.

I confidentally bet on MVP to beat Holland in MVP's UFC debut because I have seen most of the former's fight career in multiple organizations. Now I'm confidentally on Ian Garry to beat MVP.
 
Last edited:
I’m steering clear of the Garry vs MVP fight. Garry is a promising fighter, well-rounded and looks sharp standing. I thought Holland would give MVP trouble on the feet (too) since he’s a game striker and has that long reach. MVP pretty much toyed with him, hit him with spinning elbows and those right hands while crashing in. The latter ones did look ugly, but he made it work. Landed some hard shots but Holland’s chin held up.

I’m just hoping for a great show.
 
Where was that vs Holland though? Do t get me wrong, MVP fought a smart fight and definitely gave himself the vest chance to win by staying elusive and not getting into big exchanges. But that was his UFC debut, if he was gonna try to make a splash I'd have thought that would be it. He knows how dangerous Garry is, I could see him being conservative again.
I think he cracked Holland with multiple fight ending shots. I thought he was active -maybe the most active fight he could against Hollands legendary retard chin. Problem is he was facing Holland who sometimes gets knocked down but other than that is never close to being stopped.
 
MVP is a showman and a point fighter. Yes, he will attempt some explosive moves in a fight, but it's just one explosive move at a time that works against lower level guys but doesn't usually work against higher level fighters.

MVP will attempt an explosive move or two against Ian Garry, but will mostly be doing the same exact thing he does in every fight: jump in and out to point fight, that's it. He literally doesn't do anything else beside point fighting and throwing 2 explosive moves maximum per fight.

Aside from Goiti Yamauchi injuring his own leg, MVP hasn't finished anyone in 3 years. In fact, if you look at the guys MVP has finished (not counting Yamauchi) since his knockout loss to Douglas Lima in May 2019, then you'll see that he finished:

  • Richard Kiely 3-3 (who?)
  • Giovanni Melillo 14-10 (who?)
  • Shinsho Anzai 9-6 (a 5'7 guy who fought at welterweight in the UFC on 4 Asia cards long ago; MVP is 6'3)
  • Derek Anderson 18-4 (MVP's best knockout win pre-UFC. Anderson beat a few good names in Bellator when he was a lightweight, then fought a few times at welterweight and lost to MVP because he's too slow, then he was released from Bellator and took 2 years off before returning in 2023 to fight a guy who was 0-0 in MMA and is now 0-1 after losing to Anderson. Even though Anderson did beat three good names in Bellator at lightweight, most of his wins are from Xplode, which is one of the two popular organizations in America who would basically feed certain guys free wins against debuting fighters or guys with losing records in order to inflate their record; the other MMA organization that gives certain fighters free wins is Gladiator Challenge, which Anderson has fought for twice before, and his most recent win was in Gladiator Challenge against the 0-0 guy.)
So, in 5 years, MVP has only shown that he is able to "bring the show under the bright lights" against cans, and goes to decision against decent fighters. You can even disect his knockout wins pre-5 years ago, and you'll notice they're over cans and/or guys who usually fought at 155 but went up to 170 to fight MVP. He literally has no knockout wins over good fighters who are true welterweights.

I confidentally bet on MVP to beat Holland in MVP's UFC debut because I have seen most of the former's fight career in multiple organizations. Now I'm confidentally on Ian Garry to beat MVP.

I might lean Garry as well. But...I dont like the way he reacts to getting punched sometimes. The ones going to decision with MVP are durable- Garrys durability is yet to be really tested.
 
Any reason not to go heavy on MAB? He lands a lot of strikes and Pyfer just got a bit exposed.
 
Any reason not to go heavy on MAB? He lands a lot of strikes and Pyfer just got a bit exposed.
Pyfer could probably mix things up, and Barriault's is also a bit of a punching bag before he gets going so he might even get finished standing, think Marquez rattled him a few times when they fought, no?
 
I think he cracked Holland with multiple fight ending shots. I thought he was active -maybe the most active fight he could against Hollands legendary retard chin. Problem is he was facing Holland who sometimes gets knocked down but other than that is never close to being stopped.
He's incredibly low volume. He only landed 41 ss in a fight he clearly won. He landed a couple good shots but he's never looking to put fight ending combos together. Garry is going to be BY FAR the best striker he's faced.

I couldn't have any confidence at all in MVP finding a finish.
 
He's incredibly low volume. He only landed 41 ss in a fight he clearly won. He landed a couple good shots but he's never looking to put fight ending combos together. Garry is going to be BY FAR the best striker he's faced.

I couldn't have any confidence at all in MVP finding a finish.
Its that darting style though. I doubt we ever see him stopping anyone with volume. But one perfect shot puts some lights out if landed cleanly.
I think Garry is the better fighter tbh. But I dont know why but I see him running to punch in near future. Maybe against MVP. Maybe not.
And I'm not a hater at all I'd like to see him on top of a wrestler heavy division.
 
Its that darting style though. I doubt we ever see him stopping anyone with volume. But one perfect shot puts some lights out if landed cleanly.
I think Garry is the better fighter tbh. But I dont know why but I see him running to punch in near future. Maybe against MVP. Maybe not.
And I'm not a hater at all I'd like to see him on top of a wrestler heavy division.

Anything is possible, but that style MVP uses sure hasn't produced many KO's lately. And not because he's not capable, we've seen that he clearly is. He just doesn't seem to care much about finishing. The showmanship and looking flashy seem to matter more.
 
anyone betting tsuruya at -500 is a fucking moron. he was lucky to win the decision against climaco. i'd play hernandez at +200 easily, let alone +350.
 
anyone betting tsuruya at -500 is a fucking moron. he was lucky to win the decision against climaco. i'd play hernandez at +200 easily, let alone +350.
I'm looking at the over, getting finished by Taira and Nascimiento isn't a bad look given how good each guy is imo. Carlos is usually a pretty game, well put together guy, so I think it hits the scorecards more often than not.

Feel tempted to fade Simon at -230 rn. Sure, his wrestling should be good enough to control Vinicius, but if it isn't? I think he gets hurt badly on the feet.
 
Back
Top