UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

Initially said:
Wait, Chris Curtis ITD is fucking +650?

That's a gift.
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Rd 3 is 25 to 1 as well Im on both. Hes only most to Cooper and Magomedkerimov in recent times 2 WWs I think would beat many ranked UFC WWs. Besides that he lost a competitive decision to Belal way back.
 
Initially said:
I strongly disagree. Hawes is one of the most overrated fighters on the roster.

But if you believe that, play Hawes heavy, because at his current odds, his implied win probability is much less than 90%.
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Everybody seeing value in Curtis makes me wanna cashout my Hawes bet,I gotta take the joker of asking the greater power. @Sadistics Do you see value on any side in that fight,I'm thinking the whole time Hawes cruises here?
 
ExitLUPin said:
Rd 3 is 25 to 1 as well Im on both. Hes only most to Cooper and Magomedkerimov in recent times 2 WWs I think would beat many ranked UFC WWs. Besides that he lost a competitive decision to Belal way back.
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what book?

edit: oh bovada 3rd tko, good line
 
Bakayoko said:
Yeah,looks good.I also like over 1,5 in the Vera/Edgar and over 1,5 in Burgos/Quarantillo fight parlayed
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I like Vera/Edgar GTD -144 on FanDuel. Vera really isn't a finisher and Frankie should make this a competitive fight, especially if he can land some TDs. This fight should GTD regardless.

I also like Vergara/Osbourne ITD -160 on MGM. Ode hasn't even gotten out of Round 1 in his last 8 fights and Vergara has finished his last 5 fights by KO/TKO. I don't see how this could possibly go to decision. One of these guys is getting finished.
 
Ridge12 said:
I like Vera/Edgar GTD -144 on FanDuel. Vera really isn't a finisher and Frankie should make this a competitive fight, especially if he can land some TDs. This fight should GTD regardless.

I also like Vergara/Osbourne ITD -160 on MGM. Ode hasn't even gotten out of Round 1 in his last 8 fights and Vergara has finished his last 5 fights by KO/TKO. I don't see how this could possibly go to decision. One of these guys is getting finished.
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Sounds good,like it.But would rather play the O 1,5 on the Edgar fight,feel like Chito might finish him late 2nd or 3rd round.
 
Bakayoko said:
Sounds good,like it.But would rather play the O 1,5 on the Edgar fight,feel like Chito might finish him late 2nd or 3rd round.
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After looking into it, I agree with you on Burgos/Q over 1.5. Parlay that with Edgar/Vera over 1.5 and Iaquinta/Green GTD = +142 on BetMGM. I think that's an extremely solid parlay.
 
The odds on doesn't go distance for pereira fight is very generous to me, think it could be lined at double juice of its current line. I think the ufc is setting andreas up, who has all 4 losses by ko, to feed to pereira for a highlight finish in this big MSG ppv. Perreira KO is very live and most likely outcome for obvious reasons, but I also think andreas has a lot of finishing upside too. Feel really confident that if andreas gets this fight to the ground the grappling edge will be huge and he could sub him which I incidentally stabbed too at +1200.
 
Alex Periera/The Greek guy ends ITD + Rose/Zhang over 1.5 rounds at +100

Lines have problem moved since I bet, but still a good double
 
Bobby Green kind of has to be the side just based on Al at his best vs Green at his best is still a close fight, but now we have a very active Green looking the best he ever has taking on an Al who hasn't fought in 2 years, was getting wrecked before he left and seems to have lost all interest in fighting.

Plus Al got his face jabbed off by Khabib and Green's jab is way more educated.

Al basically plods forward and leads with his face, seems like a recipe for getting smacked up
 
2020Tracked said:
Bobby Green kind of has to be the side just based on Al at his best vs Green at his best is still a close fight, but now we have a very active Green looking the best he ever has taking on an Al who hasn't fought in 2 years, was getting wrecked before he left and seems to have lost all interest in fighting.

Plus Al got his face jabbed off by Khabib and Green's jab is way more educated.

Al basically plods forward and leads with his face, seems like a recipe for getting smacked up
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I see it the same way. Bobby is also an underrated grappler. He will go for TDs too and last we saw Al he was outgrappled by Dan Hooker. This fight just reeks of Al getting to pay off some realtor fees. I think he's checked out as a fighter and he's always been uncomfortable in grappling positions throughout his career which makes him being 2-0 against Lee all the more hilarious

Not sure I agree with Bobby looking better than ever tho he looked just as good if not better in the mid 2010s but he was facing much higher level comp. I thought he beat Klose and Trinaldo fight could've went either way but 2020 Clay, Lando, Alan Patrick is shite comp compared to what he fought years ago. I thought he beat Moises too but I don't rate Thiago much at all
 
Initially said:
Which kind of makes me wonder why Rose has shown such suspect cardio, but I digress.
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I think Rose has the McGregor problem, which is that she is dynamic, but all the time. Not that she can't pace herself... but it's just... all her movements are snappy and fast, and this will be a big toll on any girl's cardio. Also she doesn't have that thickly built midsection (like Andrade's for example), which is super important to have if you want to be able to throw some volume deep in the fight.

I think the girls rematch will be a war and the Usman vs. Covington fight will end early. These rematches tend to get the opposite of what the 1st fight was. DC vs. Miocic 1 ends the 1st, then a hard fight 4 rds, JDS vs. Miocic 1 was a war, then 1st round finish. Rose vs. Jedrzejczyk 1 ends inside 1, then a decision.

Everybody eager to bet B.Green - just know that this is a guy who always fights to the level of his opposition. If he fights like I don't know... Islam tomorrow, he's gonna make it a very competitive close fight. He can do it, I have no doubt. But on the same token, he's gonna fight close with Al too. I'm expecting him to win, but you'll curse at your TV the whole time. He's done it multiple times. :D
 
ExitLUPin said:
I prolly won't play his ML straight but that's a joocy parlay builder IMO and I'm hoping ITD is plus money again
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This is one of the stupidest things I have ever read in my life. There is no such thing as a parlay builder. Including a -350 in a parlay is idiotic (I only know this from personal experience)- You're saying you wouldn't play him straight but you're basically playing him straight if the rest of your parlay is in tact when the main event comes. Why do people call huge favorites "parlay pieces?" Its so fucking dumb. A real parlay piece is an even money situation where you feel you are grabbing insane value that you include with other near even money bets.
If you are going to include a -350 bet in your parlay you are much better off just adding 30 pct to your original bet and not sweating the last fight.

If your response is that you can then hedge, you are also a moron because you're basically saying that you don't want to bet the fight at all once the rest of the parlay gets there.
 
TrueAscension said:
This is one of the stupidest things I have ever read in my life. There is no such thing as a parlay builder. Including a -350 in a parlay is idiotic (I only know this from personal experience)- You're saying you wouldn't play him straight but you're basically playing him straight if the rest of your parlay is in tact when the main event comes. Why do people call huge favorites "parlay pieces?" Its so fucking dumb. A real parlay piece is an even money situation where you feel you are grabbing insane value that you include with other near even money bets.
If you are going to include a -350 bet in your parlay you are much better off just adding 30 pct to your original bet and not sweating the last fight.

If your response is that you can then hedge, you are also a moron because you're basically saying that you don't want to bet the fight at all once the rest of the parlay gets there.
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I like to make stupid $10 and $20 multileg plays just to get the gambler out of me. Usman is a nice piece for those and I can get him -290.
 
ExitLUPin said:
I see it the same way. Bobby is also an underrated grappler. He will go for TDs too and last we saw Al he was outgrappled by Dan Hooker. This fight just reeks of Al getting to pay off some realtor fees. I think he's checked out as a fighter and he's always been uncomfortable in grappling positions throughout his career which makes him being 2-0 against Lee all the more hilarious

Not sure I agree with Bobby looking better than ever tho he looked just as good if not better in the mid 2010s but he was facing much higher level comp. I thought he beat Klose and Trinaldo fight could've went either way but 2020 Clay, Lando, Alan Patrick is shite comp compared to what he fought years ago. I thought he beat Moises too but I don't rate Thiago much at all
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But Fisiev is a damn good striker and Bobby arguably won that fight. That was his last fight. He landed nonstop on Fisiev, showed great cardio, huge volume, and outlanded Fisiev in every round. Technically he lost (I thought he won) but it may actually have been Green's most impressive performance.
 
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