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UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Card, Oct 24, 2021.

  1. Orion Brown Belt

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    He doesn't have a reliable way to get Usman's respect though. No power in his punches and the wrestling will largely be off limits. I think Usman crushes him here -- he does everything Colby does but better and has improved his striking tenfold while staying active.

    edit: Just realized you basically said this on the page before that post.
     
    Kowboy Karl likes this.
  2. He had a grueling 23 minute fight with him, and took more damage in that fight than he has in any other fight in his career.

    I guarantee Usman respects Colby, and his power. He's said as much(about respecting him) leading up to this fight.

    Usman is a cerebral fighter, he's not going to just plod forward and think he's a k1 champ because he's made improvements. Realistically, Usman's best path to victory would be to wrestle this time around.

    The reason I bet on Usman KO in their last fight, is because as @Kyle Stephens mentioned, in Colby's fight with RDA he slowed down after purely grappling for 4 rounds. RDA was able to get him down, and Colby and his elite cardio was tested.

    Usman has shown us he can wrestle hard for 5 rounds and not fatigue whatsoever. His cardio was freakishly good before he came to train with Wittman. Now that he's at altitude, it's probably even better(TJ trains in CO too, another guy with insane cardio).

    Which kind of makes me wonder why Rose has shown such suspect cardio, but I digress.
     
    Kyle Stephens and Main_Card_MMA like this.
  3. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    I suspect that Rose's cardio isn't a result of physical exertion, but mental.
    She seems like her mental state is both her greatest weapon, but also her worst weakness.
     
    Joon Cha and Initially like this.
  4. Joon Cha White Belt

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    Eh people overplay Santos vs Walker. It was a very predictable result in my opinion. Santos showed to be gunshy in his last bout and had a crippled leg, and Walker was in his first 5 round bout with a new camp after shitting the bed to glory while in the spotlight over and over before. And he is kind of a stupid inconsistent untrustworthy person. Wasn't surprised at all that he became a gunshy pussy. I didn't bet on the decision and regret that to this day, but I sure as hell didn't pay the -400 DNGTD line.

    Gaethje vs Chandler DNGTD at -275 is a lock for the aforementioned reasons said in the thread before. This is not Santos vs Walker.
     
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  5. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    So what do you think about Chandler vs Gaethje?
    Safe bet that it doesn't go the distance?
     
  6. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    I think Green boxes Iaquinta pretty easily to at least a 30-27 decision. I usually bet 1 or 2 weeks prior but I placed a bet on Green as soon as the line was open a few months ago.
    I can't trust in Iaquinta.. dude was completely outclassed by Cerrone and Hooker. He hasn't won a fight in almost 3 years and that was against a journeyman in Kevin Lee.
     
  7. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    IDK.. Chandler is super smart and had no problems taking guys down and keeping them there to win decisions in the past. I remember him applying super heavy wrestling gameplans against guys like Primus or Yamauchi.
    He has an underrated submission game.
    On the feet I think Justin is much better but Chandler has a solid punchers chance against anyone.

    This fight is super unpredictable. I think I'm passing it an enjoying it.
     
  8. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Guys.. Frankie via decision at +270 seems like a robbery for me. Specially if one considers fair his ML at +136. Why is that gap? What am I missing?
     
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  9. Joon Cha White Belt

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    Thats a good line. On bovada and bol it is +210
     
  10. SalvadorAllende Steel Belt

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    Took Colby at +336. I think Usman is the rightful favorite but it seems a little bit off.

    Also took Chris Barnett at + odds. Gian Villante is trash.
     
  11. Joon Cha White Belt

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    Frankie edgar via split is +900. Definitely worth a stab and is the only way I would hedge Vera ML. If Frankie wins, its via controversial decision. No chance in hell he steamrolls Vera, its just not going to happen.
     
    JC615 likes this.
  12. Stat_Collector Green Belt Platinum Member

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    Usman fought 3x since Colby. Jorge and Gilbert. Two guys with good standup and competitive ,Colby has only fought once a faded Woodley. Activity alone and that jab Usman has now ,no way do i pick Colby. Usman is far better and leveled up quicker since they last fought.
     
  13. mkess101 Not the hero he deserves, but the hero he needs

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    If Frankie does win it's probably 80% or so that it's by decision. That delta makes no sense and you're absolutely right to play the decision line.
     
    Bakayoko likes this.
  14. Guld The Last Chronomancer

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    Saw the faceoff/push between Colby and Usman. Does anybody have footage of Usman walking towards the staredown? Because after the push, his left leg seemed rigid/stiff. Keep your eyes on how he walks in the next few days. Those legs might be done for.
     
  15. Count of Flanders White Belt

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    He was just strutting like a dipshit with those long-ass clown shoes on, that's all.

    I think the push was extremely uncalled for and only a completely sociopathic narcissist would do that. Jones being a prime example of that. (and basically every c*nt in the "Arrogant fighters being humbled" compilation videos on YouTube)
     
    rille31 likes this.
  16. Main_Card_MMA All it takes is one and there are at least two.

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    I think they just have legit beef and Colby seems like a total prick. He got kicked out of ATT so it's not an act unless he's really committing to a bit .If Usman wants to take his time, the over 3.5 might be a good play. I like over 2.5 more. Usman's knees are toast and everyone knows that so maybe Colby will fight smart and kick the legs more. Still doubt Colby finds a finish in under 3.5 even with great leg and body kicks.

    EDIT: Hey, @BigSteve, what do you think about the over 3.5 in the ME? -140 a good price?
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  17. Where are you getting these odds? Colby @ +336 and Frankie dec @ +270 have tremendous value.
     
  18. Ridge12 White Belt

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    FanDuel has Frankie DEC at +260 and PointsBet at +270.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  19. Yeah, I have access to FD and a lot of books, but can't find Colby at that line anywhere.
     
  20. Wait, Chris Curtis ITD is fucking +650?

    That's a gift.
     

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