UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

Kyle Stephens said:
Usman is the CEO of EPO. You can't compete with that, even with better camp and better gameplan. He's bigger, more powerful and more durable. I would even say he's the better wrestler. Who's to say he isn't gonna use his wrestling edge here to make it even more difficult for Colby? Who, BTW, got taken down by RDA in their fight - a freaking lightweight! No, even at dog odds it's not worth it. Only in a case of hedging out a parlay ending up with Usman.
First of all - in my humble opinion, he's not better everywhere. Imavov is the better wrestler and a better round winner, which is more important. It seems Edmen's athleticism is lacking a bit vs UFC level guys and he's not built for the game he wants to play. I also think Imavov's camp is much better than Edmen's. Think Imavov should be a bigger favourite.
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Not too sure about more durable, everything else I agree with, including him being on EPO.

I've made a lot of money backing Usman by KO over Covington @ +150 in their first fight, him by KO over Burns @ +320, and over Masvidal @ +315.

But as for his durability, the only time we've seen him hit by a hard punch was from Burns, and he was definitely rocked.

Colby was finished by Usman, but it was a culmination of damage over the course of 5 rounds.

The way I'm looking at this fight is Usman's stock is at an all time high after his most recent KO wins. This is playing heavily into the line.

If you look objectively at the first fight, Usman got away with a plethora of fouls. Most notably, being hurt by a body kick and claiming it was a low blow.

The fight was 2-2 going into the fifth round, and props to Usman for digging deep and winning.

But to have him @ -330 in a rematch, where the first fight was so close, is pretty crazy. We all know Usman has improved his striking, but do we really think that Colby, who is younger and also in his prime, has just been sitting around and not improving his striking as well?

Colby has openly admitted to knowing what he did wrong in the first fight, and working on it.

Will it be enough to dethrone Usman? Probably not. But Usman's implied odds are him winning over 7 times out of 10.

I haven't made a play on Colby yet, and I may not, but I think the odds are too high to trust Usman even in parlays.

I'll attack this fight by playing o3.5 @ -130, and maybe FGTD @ +money.
 
Initially said:
Not too sure about more durable, everything else I agree with, including him being on EPO.

I've made a lot of money backing Usman by KO over Covington @ +150 in their first fight, him by KO over Burns @ +320, and over Masvidal @ +315.

But as for his durability, the only time we've seen him hit by a hard punch was from Burns, and he was definitely rocked.

Colby was finished by Usman, but it was a culmination of damage over the course of 5 rounds.

The way I'm looking at this fight is Usman's stock is at an all time high after his most recent KO wins. This is playing heavily into the line.

If you look objectively at the first fight, Usman got away with a plethora of fouls. Most notably, being hurt by a body kick and claiming it was a low blow.

The fight was 2-2 going into the fifth round, and props to Usman for digging deep and winning.

But to have him @ -330 in a rematch, where the first fight was so close, is pretty crazy. We all know Usman has improved his striking, but do we really think that Colby, who is younger and also in his prime, has just been sitting around and not improving his striking as well?

Colby has openly admitted to knowing what he did wrong in the first fight, and working on it.

Will it be enough to dethrone Usman? Probably not. But Usman's implied odds are him winning over 7 times out of 10.

I haven't made a play on Colby yet, and I may not, but I think the odds are too high to trust Usman even in parlays.

I'll attack this fight by playing o3.5 @ -130, and maybe FGTD @ +money.
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I like over 2.5 at -175. Colby should at least be safe from getting finished within that timeframe. Usman's newfound striking and finishing ability make GTD unappealing to me.
 
Anyone have an opinion on Green/Iaquinta? Haven't had a chance to look this one over yet but off the bat I was leaning towards Al.
 
Kazda1 said:
Anyone have an opinion on Green/Iaquinta? Haven't had a chance to look this one over yet but off the bat I was leaning towards Al.
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I like Green a LOT here. He still talks in there and showboats a bit, but now he does it WHILE he's landing and not INSTEAD of throwing strikes. I thought his performance vs Fiziev was absolutely terrific. He lost, and while the decision wasn't a "robbery", he outlanded Fiziev in every round and hurt him multiple times. Fiziev is a hell of a striker too. Green could have gotten that decision. And I do think he was borderline robbed vs Moises. We could easily be talking about him on a 5 fight win streak with good names on the list. He's super busy, has shown great cardio with his volume not dropping off, and has a great chin (only time he's been KO'd in the last decade was to one of the best LW strikers of all time in Poirier).

Al is coming off a 2 year layoff and in his last 2 fights was soundly beaten. The Hooker loss...okay. Bad matchup with Hooker being able to easily outstrike Al from distance. But the Cerrone loss has aged poorly. Cowboy hasn't won a fight since (granted against top competition) and Cerrone just clowned Al for 5 rounds.

Al is a tough guy with an okay skillset, but there's nothing he does exceedingly well. He seems somewhat undersized, and again being beaten to the punch for 25 minutes by Cerrone at that stage in his career is a huge red flag.

I think this fight is gonna look a lot like Al's last 2 fights. He gets beaten to the punch consistently, can't figure out distance, and loses a clear decision to Green.
 
Goodfella86 said:
I think the king is some other Goodfella, to be honest. I've only been visiting the betting forum for a year or so.

But, if he's gone, I'd love to take all of his credit.
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MMA Goodfella was a hell of a poster. If you're half what he was....you'll be just fine.
 
mkess101 said:
I like Green a LOT here. He still talks in there and showboats a bit, but now he does it WHILE he's landing and not INSTEAD of throwing strikes. I thought his performance vs Fiziev was absolutely terrific. He lost, and while the decision wasn't a "robbery", he outlanded Fiziev in every round and hurt him multiple times. Fiziev is a hell of a striker too. Green could have gotten that decision. And I do think he was borderline robbed vs Moises. We could easily be talking about him on a 5 fight win streak with good names on the list. He's super busy, has shown great cardio with his volume not dropping off, and has a great chin (only time he's been KO'd in the last decade was to one of the best LW strikers of all time in Poirier).

Al is coming off a 2 year layoff and in his last 2 fights was soundly beaten. The Hooker loss...okay. Bad matchup with Hooker being able to easily outstrike Al from distance. But the Cerrone loss has aged poorly. Cowboy hasn't won a fight since (granted against top competition) and Cerrone just clowned Al for 5 rounds.

Al is a tough guy with an okay skillset, but there's nothing he does exceedingly well. He seems somewhat undersized, and again being beaten to the punch for 25 minutes by Cerrone at that stage in his career is a huge red flag.

I think this fight is gonna look a lot like Al's last 2 fights. He gets beaten to the punch consistently, can't figure out distance, and loses a clear decision to Green.
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Agree with this analysis. I'll also add that it seems Al only became available or willing to fight on this card b/c it's at MSG (he lives in NYC area). His absence the last two years is notable as it's well documented that his "real" job consists of being a licensed real estate agent. I have no information, but it appears that MMA is more of a hobby or pastime for him than an actual profession. As such, I question how much he has actually been training during his time away and how much desire/passion he actually has to fight (and win).
 
Ridge12 said:
I like over 2.5 at -175. Colby should at least be safe from getting finished within that timeframe. Usman's newfound striking and finishing ability make GTD unappealing to me.
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Over 2,5 on the ME parlayed with Iaquinta/Green GTD gives you nice +100 which is fine to me
 
mkess101 said:
I like Green a LOT here. He still talks in there and showboats a bit, but now he does it WHILE he's landing and not INSTEAD of throwing strikes. I thought his performance vs Fiziev was absolutely terrific. He lost, and while the decision wasn't a "robbery", he outlanded Fiziev in every round and hurt him multiple times. Fiziev is a hell of a striker too. Green could have gotten that decision. And I do think he was borderline robbed vs Moises. We could easily be talking about him on a 5 fight win streak with good names on the list. He's super busy, has shown great cardio with his volume not dropping off, and has a great chin (only time he's been KO'd in the last decade was to one of the best LW strikers of all time in Poirier).

Al is coming off a 2 year layoff and in his last 2 fights was soundly beaten. The Hooker loss...okay. Bad matchup with Hooker being able to easily outstrike Al from distance. But the Cerrone loss has aged poorly. Cowboy hasn't won a fight since (granted against top competition) and Cerrone just clowned Al for 5 rounds.

Al is a tough guy with an okay skillset, but there's nothing he does exceedingly well. He seems somewhat undersized, and again being beaten to the punch for 25 minutes by Cerrone at that stage in his career is a huge red flag.

I think this fight is gonna look a lot like Al's last 2 fights. He gets beaten to the punch consistently, can't figure out distance, and loses a clear decision to Green.
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yep and by decision line is a nice -115
 
mkess101 said:
I like Green a LOT here. He still talks in there and showboats a bit, but now he does it WHILE he's landing and not INSTEAD of throwing strikes. I thought his performance vs Fiziev was absolutely terrific. He lost, and while the decision wasn't a "robbery", he outlanded Fiziev in every round and hurt him multiple times. Fiziev is a hell of a striker too. Green could have gotten that decision. And I do think he was borderline robbed vs Moises. We could easily be talking about him on a 5 fight win streak with good names on the list. He's super busy, has shown great cardio with his volume not dropping off, and has a great chin (only time he's been KO'd in the last decade was to one of the best LW strikers of all time in Poirier).

Al is coming off a 2 year layoff and in his last 2 fights was soundly beaten. The Hooker loss...okay. Bad matchup with Hooker being able to easily outstrike Al from distance. But the Cerrone loss has aged poorly. Cowboy hasn't won a fight since (granted against top competition) and Cerrone just clowned Al for 5 rounds.

Al is a tough guy with an okay skillset, but there's nothing he does exceedingly well. He seems somewhat undersized, and again being beaten to the punch for 25 minutes by Cerrone at that stage in his career is a huge red flag.

I think this fight is gonna look a lot like Al's last 2 fights. He gets beaten to the punch consistently, can't figure out distance, and loses a clear decision to Green.
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Al's pretty much always had issues against more technical strikers, let alone a more technical boxer in Green. Only reason not to play Bobby by dec is the judges, they love keeping Bobby down.

Even so, you're right in that this current iteration is better at keeping the volume up through 15 minutes. He should be able to pick Iaquinta apart.
 
HighStakesMMA said:
Rose is an underdog to Zhang? WHAT THE FUCK am I missing here?
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Imo it is justifiable. The outcome of the first fight was a bit of fluke since Zhang generally is very durable. Rose on the other hand has shown that she slows down and doesn't react as well to adversity, particularly down the stretch. I thought that her second fight against Andrade was pretty alarming. She fell apart in that 3rd round.
In this fight I think she will have success early, but Zhang taking over during the progression of the fight.
 
I can't see Gaethje and Chandler going the distance. (I know I said the same thing about Walker and Santos haha)
I think Chandler has seen the blueprint to beating Gaethje. (Secure the takedown, expose the whitebelt BJJ)
So if he lands that takedown, he'll sub Gaethje with ease I think.
Gaethje also has a blueprint to beating Chandler. Rock that chin, and chop those legs up.
Unlike the Walker/Santos scrap I can't see either of them being hesitant in this approach. Primarily because of Chandler. Because if Gaethje tries to be cautious/patient etc. then Chandler is going to use that as an invite to bull rush....and if Gaethje goes agressive then again Chandler is going to use that as an invite to bullrush.

Either way, it SEEMS like that fight not going the distance is a safe bet. (unless they have a handshake agreement to take it to the judges haha)
 
Also, I know the reasoning, but I still don't think WeiLi should be the favorite.
Didn't Rose start out as the fav for this one?
 
Guld said:
I can't see Gaethje and Chandler going the distance. (I know I said the same thing about Walker and Santos haha)
I think Chandler has seen the blueprint to beating Gaethje. (Secure the takedown, expose the whitebelt BJJ)
So if he lands that takedown, he'll sub Gaethje with ease I think.
Gaethje also has a blueprint to beating Chandler. Rock that chin, and chop those legs up.
Unlike the Walker/Santos scrap I can't see either of them being hesitant in this approach. Primarily because of Chandler. Because if Gaethje tries to be cautious/patient etc. then Chandler is going to use that as an invite to bull rush....and if Gaethje goes agressive then again Chandler is going to use that as an invite to bullrush.

Either way, it SEEMS like that fight not going the distance is a safe bet. (unless they have a handshake agreement to take it to the judges haha)
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After Santos x Walker and Capelozza x Delija go to decision, all is possible my friend
 
DonQ94 said:
Imo it is justifiable. The outcome of the first fight was a bit of fluke since Zhang generally is very durable. Rose on the other hand has shown that she slows down and doesn't react as well to adversity, particularly down the stretch. I thought that her second fight against Andrade was pretty alarming. She fell apart in that 3rd round.
In this fight I think she will have success early, but Zhang taking over during the progression of the fight.
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That's fair.

IMO this is a matador-bull kind of matchup so I'm leaning on the matador (Rose). Zhang is gonna keep moving forward and looking for blood but I trust Rose's technical ability.

I was just alarmed because I find it interesting that the winner by KO in the last fight is now an underdog. Usually the books overvalue the winner of the 1st fight. Making Rose a slight dog in fight #2 might be a case where you can see which side of the line Vegas is on.

Oh you want to bet on the definite winner from fight #1? Cool, here - take +Money and go for it! Lol.
 
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