UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2

Guarantee the atmosphere in Ireland for Bellator last night will be way better than MSG, American's just don't do it right
 
This is one of the stupidest things I have ever read in my life. There is no such thing as a parlay builder. Including a -350 in a parlay is idiotic (I only know this from personal experience)- You're saying you wouldn't play him straight but you're basically playing him straight if the rest of your parlay is in tact when the main event comes. Why do people call huge favorites "parlay pieces?" Its so fucking dumb. A real parlay piece is an even money situation where you feel you are grabbing insane value that you include with other near even money bets.
If you are going to include a -350 bet in your parlay you are much better off just adding 30 pct to your original bet and not sweating the last fight.

If your response is that you can then hedge, you are also a moron because you're basically saying that you don't want to bet the fight at all once the rest of the parlay gets there.

Dam man you alright if u ever need any1 to talk to message me lol whats up brother
 
Oh for sure, but betting on most of a card in a single play is stupid. It's a $10-20 lotto ticket. I'd never play real money with more than 3 legs. I just don't feel good about any other lines in that fight.

Edit: unless there's value on that line. If the line should be -500 then why not add it? Parlays allow you to reduce risk exposure by betting less overall. I'm fine with adding a -300 to a 2 leg parlay and betting it small.

Thats what I do also I call mine lotto tickets as well but I do 5-10$ 8 teamers and I pick my parlays random like legit random ill ask my gf or wife whoever is near me lol. Hey over or under this fighter or that fighter shit like that
 
Dam man you alright if u ever need any1 to talk to message me lol whats up brother
Lol
Gaethje is going to need to find a safe house or a relative to stay with or something because he’s probably going to be wanted for murder
 
Not saying Green doesn't deserve to be a favorite against anyone but, he is someone I do NOT trust betting on as a favorite. Always in a bunch of close fights and usually fights down to the level of his competition. Makes fights closer than they have to be

I've never bet on a split decision in my life, but I'm betting on one here. I don't really see any value either way and it's worth the flyer.
 
I think the best value for dog hunters on this card is Quarantillo. I don't really understand Burgos at -200 here. I can see him as a slight favorite, but no way 2-1.

Quarantillo threw up a clunker a couple fights ago vs Tucker, where the script was flipped and Billy faded while Gavin showed amazing cardio, pressure, and grappling. Everyone assumed it would be the opposite with Gavin starting strong and Billy taking over with his gas tank but it went the opposite. But that seems like just an "off night" for Quarantillo. He's a terrifc pressure fighter who doesn't stop coming. He's shown he can finish guys when they tire, both on the mat and standing. He seems to have a solid chin. He's a really good (not great, but very good) all around fighter.

Burgos is a tough guy for me to figure out. He has stretches of technical brilliance, where he's slipping and countering like the best in the sport. But then he has lapses where he just abandons his defensive fundamentals and leaves himself open. The best example I can think of is round 3 vs Josh Emmett. He does good work to the body with both punches and kicks, he obviously has good power. And at his best, he's capable of looking like a world beater. But there's just too many times where he seems to make crucial mistakes for me to trust him as this big a favorite over a very capable guy like Quarantillo.

I think Billy +165ish has value here.
 
So one judge had Usman up 3-1, one had Colby up 3-1 and one had 2-2.
Thing is has Colby improved anything or is he just milking his last 15 minutes of fame. He has one fight for past two years against Twood the rapper. This doesn't tell you anything. It would almost feel unfair if he found a way after doing jack shit after the first fight. Kinda like when Woodley won the belt after sitting and getting Robbie after a war with Condit.
But the world is an unfair place so maybe he does leave the belt after Usman blows his knees or something.
 
Someone give me three fights that won't go the distance and I'll put 50 on a treble
 
Alright. This is my layout so far...
-Pereria by stoppage.
-Chandler/Gaethje does not go the distance (might put a small on Chandler by first round stoppage as well).
-Vera/Edgar goes over 1.5 rds. I initially had Vera, but even Frankie at 42 (in NYC no less) is gonna go hard, so it's hard to bet against him. Either way, Frankie should retire after this.
-Going to put a small on Rose initially, but if she doesn't get it done by the end of the 2nd I'm going heavy on WeiLi.
-Covington over Usman. I'll probably live bet this one, but based on the way Usman is talking/walking I think he's shot and trying to cover it up. Covington on the other hand looks like he's excited to go and put a show on. Also gotta keep an eye open to see if Covington does have any staph marks. I heard a rumor of that, but didn't see anything myself during their initial staredown.
 
just 11 pages for a card like this sheesh..hey @Card great work as always with the weigh in pics and what not, do you have any other breakdowns, mainly the short notice fights?
 
i feel like his knees are due for a new surgery and he is talking about retirement. Saw him hold his knees when going up steps.

Am i exaggerating ? maybe.
I just want the fight to end inside the distance, his knees or Colbys jaw
 
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