UFC 264 Play by play

[DogsAndKisses]

I just re-watched conor v dustin. It was a very competitive fight. Conor was stupid to go for the guillotine, and it quite rightly cost him the round. But he was defending the td well to that point, and he got up swinging hard and didnt look in bad shape.

Fustrating, conor's trash talk made the ending seem like justice, but if he had been respectful, everyone would have been sorry for him. The fight ending like didnt really tell us much about which of the 2 is the better fighter.

The ending was a freak occurance. Not so freak these days though somehow.

You asked if this could be a no contest, now post this.

Gotta try to be less of a Conor fan and more objective bruh

 

[longway]

I mean, maybe not with absolute certainty but it's somewhat obvious that Dustin is better. He took Conor down and beat him up, and Conor took forever to be able to get back to his feet. And we do have enough prior evidence to know that Dustin has better cardio so that first round was gonna leave Conor with the far more depleted gas tank.

No, it wasn't as decisive as the TKO in the 2nd fight. Of course not. But to someone who's truly objective, Conor looked to be on his way to another loss with or without the ankle injury.

He didnt take him down. Conor fell back for the guillotine. He couldnt get back up, that was for sure. He had to cheat to get Dustin to separate.

Someone who is truly objective would want more info before coming to any firm conclusions.

 

[longway]

You asked if this could be a no contest, now post this.

Gotta try to be less of a Conor fan and more objective bruh

I didnt ask if this could be a nc. I said that I think conor will appeal for it to be overturnrd to one. I also stated why i thought he had a valid case, and pointed out he has money to bribe the commision if need be.

You can see he was already angling for it by him wanting the official decision be a doctor stoppage.

I'm not a fan. I dont even like the guy.

I am more objective than you, that's for sure, because you twisted what I posted.

 

[longway]

Gotta disagree. Conor showed he hasn't improved his tdd, ground game and defense. In fact he tried to do something new and fucked his own leg up. Dustin was beating the piss out of him near the end, Conor would have gassed in rd2+ and would have got finished regardless.

He was bleeding out his ear. Ate a bunch of elbows.

Disagree about assessment of TDD, Conor wasn't taken down, he fell back for a guillotine.

Given the guy had a compromised leg that would have broken at any moment, he was clearly going to lose this fight, but I didn't see enough to make an assessment on who was better between the two if Conor had not injured himself.

As an MMA fan, it's disappointing for me. I wanted to see more of what was shaping up to be a fantastic fight.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

I didnt ask if this could be a nc. I said that I think conor will appeal for it to be overturnrd to one. I also stated why i thought he had a valid case, and pointed out he has money to bribe the commision if need be.

You can see he was already angling for it by him wanting the official decision be a doctor stoppage.

I'm not a fan. I dont even like the guy.

I am more objective than you, that's for sure, because you twisted what I posted.

Bribe the commission for a no contest.

lmfao

 

[mkess101]

He didnt take him down. Conor fell back for the guillotine. He couldnt get back up, that was for sure. He had to cheat to get Dustin to separate.

Someone who is truly objective would want more info before coming to any firm conclusions.

Conor fell back for the guillotine for a reason. And it's most likely not because he's decided to become a submission wizard. Likely, he felt his balance failing and made the choice (a somewhat panicked one) to try to at least threaten with the choke.

And it really depends what you mean by "firm conclusions". I can state with RELATIVE certainty that Dustin is the better fighter as of now. Not absolute certainty, but objectively he sure looks like the better fighter. Your stance of "more info is needed" can literally ALWAYS be applied. On the surface, it seems as though you're searching for an "out" for Conor?

 

[longway]

Conor fell back for the guillotine for a reason. And it's most likely not because he's decided to become a submission wizard. Likely, he felt his balance failing and made the choice (a somewhat panicked one) to try to at least threaten with the choke.

And it really depends what you mean by "firm conclusions". I can state with RELATIVE certainty that Dustin is the better fighter as of now. Not absolute certainty, but objectively he sure looks like the better fighter. Your stance of "more info is needed" can literally ALWAYS be applied. On the surface, it seems as though you're searching for an "out" for Conor?

First you say he got takendown, now you change to he went for guillotine bc he felt his balance failing.

None of this is borne out by observation. Its just stuff you make up in your head, including im looking for an out for mcsnapper.

Anyone who is objective would not make assertions you do. Espcially changing the assertions to fit the conclusion you favour.

 

[mkess101]

First you say he got takendown, now you change to he went for guillotine bc he felt his balance failing.

None of this is borne out by observation. Its just stuff you make up in your head, including im looking for an out for mcsnapper.

Anyone who is objective would not make assertions you do. Espcially changing the assertions to fit the conclusion you favour.

Because things aren't static. You start to be taken down, sometimes you go for the guillotine when you feel you're going to end up on your back anyway. You've watched enough MMA to realize this, right? Or is your assertion that Conor now fancies himself a submission guy who wants to go for chokes that end up with him on his back? I mean...c'mon man.

And yes, someone objectively observing would absolutely come to the conclusion after these last two fights between these two guys that Dustin is the better fighter. Busting him up and stopping him, then clearly winning Rd 1 in pretty dominant fashion even before the injury. It's weird...this is what happened. We all saw it...how is it not objectioto say Dustin looks like the better fighter??

As for my comment about you, that's what it seems like. I'm not the only one who said so. I don't know it for a fact but that's the appearance you're giving. You don't seem to want to acknowledge that Dustin has clearly looked better than Conor in both of their last two fights. Not sure why.

 

[Kamais_Ookin]

Because things aren't static. You start to be taken down, sometimes you go for the guillotine when you feel you're going to end up on your back anyway. You've watched enough MMA to realize this, right? Or is your assertion that Conor now fancies himself a submission guy who wants to go for chokes that end up with him on his back? I mean...c'mon man.

And yes, someone objectively observing would absolutely come to the conclusion after these last two fights between these two guys that Dustin is the better fighter. Busting him up and stopping him, then clearly winning Rd 1 in pretty dominant fashion even before the injury. It's weird...this is what happened. We all saw it...how is it not objectioto say Dustin looks like the better fighter??

As for my comment about you, that's what it seems like. I'm not the only one who said so. I don't know it for a fact but that's the appearance you're giving. You don't seem to want to acknowledge that Dustin has clearly looked better than Conor in both of their last two fights. Not sure why.

Vegas seems to agree with you considering poirier opened at -200 for hypothetical fourth fight with mcgregor.

 

[longway]

Because things aren't static. You start to be taken down, sometimes you go for the guillotine when you feel you're going to end up on your back anyway. You've watched enough MMA to realize this, right? Or is your assertion that Conor now fancies himself a submission guy who wants to go for chokes that end up with him on his back? I mean...c'mon man.

And yes, someone objectively observing would absolutely come to the conclusion after these last two fights between these two guys that Dustin is the better fighter. Busting him up and stopping him, then clearly winning Rd 1 in pretty dominant fashion even before the injury. It's weird...this is what happened. We all saw it...how is it not objectioto say Dustin looks like the better fighter??

As for my comment about you, that's what it seems like. I'm not the only one who said so. I don't know it for a fact but that's the appearance you're giving. You don't seem to want to acknowledge that Dustin has clearly looked better than Conor in both of their last two fights. Not sure why.

Alot of people saying the same thing doesn't make it objective. if you were objective you would know that bc the entire reason we can make money from gambling on mma is that perceptions don't always correspond to reality.

It could be that he went for the guillotine bc he felt he would be taken down anyway, but cant know that from observation. Mcsnapper did not get lifted off his feet, he was he tried applying the choke a couple of times prior to falling back with it. He even tried it when he was on the ground.

As you say, things are not static in MMA. Can you not imagine he practised guillotines bc he knew dusty was going to shoot and decided to go for it bc he thought he had a good grip.

It could be bc he knew his foot was bust already or what you said, but there is nothing you can observe that backs up that assertion. Its just shit in your head. Not saying its wrong, but have no idea whether you are right or not.

What I saw was the start of an amazing fight. Conor winning the early exchanges. Then Dusty rattling Conor with a strike that made him clinch, which led to Conor making a monumental blunder of falling back for the guillotine. He then got dominated on the ground, though it was not all one-way traffic. When he got up he looked fresh. Even when he fell down from the broken leg and Dusty swarmed him, as soon a the bell sounded he was telling Herb that something was wrong with his leg.

He didn't look tired, nor did he seem to suffer much from the GnP.

I was hyped for the next round. I honestly cannot say how the fight would have gone until we saw Conor's TDD tested at least one or 2 more times.

I am just disappointed. It was a perfect set-up for a fight between high-level LWs, but there is no conclusion here for me.

 

[SolarSeiko]

He didn't look tired, nor did he seem to suffer much from the GnP.

conor looked exhausted after the pummeling. if his leg wasnt fractured / broke. he wouldn't have made it out of round 2. Ate a fuck ton of GnP. Conor "looked" okay because he threw a few hard leg kicks and thats it. Dustin forced Conor to turn into a panic wrestler and all it took was 1 exchange. Then conor panicked and threw that guillotine because that was his only hope of not getting fucked on the ground, which then we all saw what happened. Dustin fucks him no condom regardless of the leg. Conor had no answer for dustin's boxing and it showed. rd2 would have just been a repeat.
i honestly dont even want to see a 4th fight. IF conor comes back, he should fight lower ranked killers. Hooker or something.

 

[longway]

conor looked exhausted

This is delusional.

Then conor panicked and threw that guillotine because that was his only hope of not getting fucked on the ground

Its an opinion dressed up as fact.

Conor had no answer for dustin's boxing and it showed.

What? Again this is delusional. Imo dustin has the power advantage at lw but there is nothing objective in this statement.

You need to watch the fight again without bias.

IF conor comes back, he should fight lower ranked killers. Hooker or something.

Agree with you on this. He gets his own way too often, he needs to earn another shot at Dustin, who knows if he can come back from this injury.

 

[mkess101]

Alot of people saying the same thing doesn't make it objective. if you were objective you would know that bc the entire reason we can make money from gambling on mma is that perceptions don't always correspond to reality.

It could be that he went for the guillotine bc he felt he would be taken down anyway, but cant know that from observation. Mcsnapper did not get lifted off his feet, he was he tried applying the choke a couple of times prior to falling back with it. He even tried it when he was on the ground.

As you say, things are not static in MMA. Can you not imagine he practised guillotines bc he knew dusty was going to shoot and decided to go for it bc he thought he had a good grip.

It could be bc he knew his foot was bust already or what you said, but there is nothing you can observe that backs up that assertion. Its just shit in your head. Not saying its wrong, but have no idea whether you are right or not.

What I saw was the start of an amazing fight. Conor winning the early exchanges. Then Dusty rattling Conor with a strike that made him clinch, which led to Conor making a monumental blunder of falling back for the guillotine. He then got dominated on the ground, though it was not all one-way traffic. When he got up he looked fresh. Even when he fell down from the broken leg and Dusty swarmed him, as soon a the bell sounded he was telling Herb that something was wrong with his leg.

He didn't look tired, nor did he seem to suffer much from the GnP.

I was hyped for the next round. I honestly cannot say how the fight would have gone until we saw Conor's TDD tested at least one or 2 more times.

I am just disappointed. It was a perfect set-up for a fight between high-level LWs, but there is no conclusion here for me.

I think the problem you're having is mixing up "could be" with "what is likely".

Yeah, Conor COULD have gone for a guillotine because he "thought he had a good grip". Sure, that's possible. It's just unlikely. That's not just "shit from my head". That's using information gathered by observing an entire career. And THAT is also how we make money betting MMA. Not as much by "imagining" a guy with zero sub wins and barely any attempts in his career just decided he would now attempt subs against a guy who's proven himself a far superior grappler on every level.

Possible vs likely. That's the key.

 

[longway]

I think the problem you're having is mixing up "could be" with "what is likely".

Yeah, Conor COULD have gone for a guillotine because he "thought he had a good grip". Sure, that's possible. It's just unlikely. That's not just "shit from my head". That's using information gathered by observing an entire career. And THAT is also how we make money betting MMA. Not as much by "imagining" a guy with zero sub wins and barely any attempts in his career just decided he would now attempt subs against a guy who's proven himself a far superior grappler on every level.

Possible vs likely. That's the key.

This a better narrative.

But Conor may not accept that Dustin is the superior grappler and wanted to test that part of his game.

I would agree with you if Conor had been lifted up and then held onto the guillotine, but you see him trying to position himself to get the guillotine several times before he went for it, and he went for it after he got set back down, Dusty felt the grip on his neck and didn't want to go to the ground with Conor holding that grip. It doesn't fit your narrative.

 

[mkess101]

This a better narrative.

But Conor may not accept that Dustin is the superior grappler and wanted to test that part of his game.

I would agree with you if Conor had been lifted up and then held onto the guillotine, but you see him trying to position himself to get the guillotine several times before he went for it, and he went for it after he got set back down, Dusty felt the grip on his neck and didn't want to go to the ground with Conor holding that grip. It doesn't fit your narrative.

All of that is after Conor tried to pummel out of that spot unsuccessfully though. He tried to stuff the shot and couldn't get Dustin off him. You don't have to be lifted off the ground to know you're not in a spot to properly defend a takedown.

 

[longway]

All of that is after Conor tried to pummel out of that spot unsuccessfully though. He tried to stuff the shot and couldn't get Dustin off him. You don't have to be lifted off the ground to know you're not in a spot to properly defend a takedown.

I think we've done this one to death. Your position is that it was most likely a forced error. My position is that there is not enough info. to tell if falling back for the guillotine was a forced error or an unforced error. Is that a fair assessment? It's why I wanted to see the 2nd round and you think it is unnecessary. I appreciate your good faith arguments. Let's just leave it here.

 

[mkess101]

I think we've done this one to death. Your position is that it was most likely a forced error. My position is that there is not enough info. to tell if falling back for the guillotine was a forced error or an unforced error. Is that a fair assessment? It's why I wanted to see the 2nd round and you think it is unnecessary. I appreciate your good faith arguments. Let's just leave it here.

Yeah that's fine. My position is more that you're presenting possibilities and I'm presenting likelihoods, but all good.

 

[SolarSeiko]

This a better narrative.

But Conor may not accept that Dustin is the superior grappler and wanted to test that part of his game.

I would agree with you if Conor had been lifted up and then held onto the guillotine, but you see him trying to position himself to get the guillotine several times before he went for it, and he went for it after he got set back down, Dusty felt the grip on his neck and didn't want to go to the ground with Conor holding that grip. It doesn't fit your narrative.

Brother, that is delusional lol.

In a fight of this magnitude, it makes zero logic engaging in a ground fight vs a guy that is clearly the better submission fighter. Props to Conor for trying it because its better than just doing nothing. Conor is a proven KO artist, why would he suddenly game plan to test his submission skills vs Dustin when conor's best chance to win was by keeping it on the feet? Conor's record / previous fights all prove this.

 

[Oblivian]

Brother, that is delusional lol.

In a fight of this magnitude, it makes zero logic engaging in a ground fight vs a guy that is clearly the better submission fighter. Props to Conor for trying it because its better than just doing nothing. Conor is a proven KO artist, why would he suddenly game plan to test his submission skills vs Dustin when conor's best chance to win was by keeping it on the feet? Conor's record / previous fights all prove this.

It's one of two things: extremely poor fight IQ or that he was on his way down anyways. Either way, it's not a good look, especially in the first round.