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Gall is a bum but he has a good chin
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez
- Thread starter BigSteve
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I remember after the Gall fight perry said he wasn't able to do much sparring if at all, I think he wasn't able to find a gym at the time or something. That was the explanation for why the striking seemed competitive and it makes sense as he's looked sharper in previous fights, to me anyways. So if interviews revealed that he's settled to a gym since then and been getting some actual training done then I'd be pretty confident in him.
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Wright at +200 is great value. Dude will dwarf Buckley and can throw strikes Buckley won't even see coming. I can see him highlight reel the last biggest highlight reel.
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I'm a degenerate who can't stay away from betting mma. I'm gonna get in some tape study but somehow I know I'm gonna be pissed 5 fights get pulled off because covid come Saturday.
Initial biggest thoughts - Royval has no shot and Moreno should be the one fighting for the title. Want to bet Chook but I'm afraid this fight looks like what Liz Carmouche did to her if not worse. Calvillo is a gritty chick. Antonina sucks but Lipski might be even worse? The chick she knee barred was pretty awful like way worse than Antonina...
Need to check out Wright and Gooden.
Initial biggest thoughts - Royval has no shot and Moreno should be the one fighting for the title. Want to bet Chook but I'm afraid this fight looks like what Liz Carmouche did to her if not worse. Calvillo is a gritty chick. Antonina sucks but Lipski might be even worse? The chick she knee barred was pretty awful like way worse than Antonina...
Need to check out Wright and Gooden.
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That wouldn't surprise me either. We both agree she will likely win ITD, it's just a matter of how long Maia lasts. The logic behind my bet, was that other than her flash head kick KO over Eye all her UFC finishes have come after the 2.5 minute mark.
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My guess would be Perry around the -110 mark but it wouldn't surprise me if he went to plus money. A lot of people seem to be high on Means in this fight.
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royval is a meme it'd be a bit sad if moreno got randomly clipped and died.
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I feel like Moreno is constantly underestimated and highly undervalued in most of his fights for some reason. Dude is really talented and not really seen as such by betting odds for some reason.
Just finished taping Chookagian/ Calvillo. Pending the rona didnt wear hard on Calvillo's lungs, I dont see her losing this. Chookagian never bothers getting back to her feet in most fights when she gets taken down and doesn't really take the fight to anyone who's going to stand their ground and upset her balance. She gets caught throwing those kicks, taken down and doesn't attempt getting up. She's not even the type of striker who's given Calvillo trouble in the past. This is kind of a no brainer to me.
What does she even offer that makes Calvillo respect her range advantages? I just don't see it.
Just finished taping Chookagian/ Calvillo. Pending the rona didnt wear hard on Calvillo's lungs, I dont see her losing this. Chookagian never bothers getting back to her feet in most fights when she gets taken down and doesn't really take the fight to anyone who's going to stand their ground and upset her balance. She gets caught throwing those kicks, taken down and doesn't attempt getting up. She's not even the type of striker who's given Calvillo trouble in the past. This is kind of a no brainer to me.
What does she even offer that makes Calvillo respect her range advantages? I just don't see it.
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Well, after looking some more I wouldn't say Royval has no shot. I'll just say the fight is probably a little more where Moreno should be closer to -125. The line now is too far apart. I still think Moreno gets it done. Royval is a little too reckless in striking exchanges for my liking.
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Yeah, I just wanted to second the part about Moreno deserving a title shot. Royval's bjj looks solid and I was surprised by his striking against Kai. If he walks forward with his chin up like last time I think he will get clipped though.
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I would like to know more about this. I actually follow Gianni in other places outside of MMA and he has stated on multiple occasions he's power ranked fighters to extract betting odds to help him handicap fights. I'm not sure how you do that but, he's said he's done it....
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To me, it comes down to how Gianni was doing it. If he was paying a bunch of touts then picking up a bet here and there I wouldn't consider that something you need to give acknowledgement for. If on the other hand he was just straight upright copying one person to a tee then yeah that's a different matter.
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Moreno is solid but the line is way too high plus how could you guys go against a guy w the nickname of raw dawg?
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Moral of the story is never trust or pay a tout. They are all slime balls
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Ye essentially he was paying for the bets and directly selling them to his own fans lol. Guy calls him out at the start of every one of his videos. Apparently he has another alias now and is doing it again.
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He is, but he's been clipped a bit and has showed a good chin. So far he's been ultra aggressive with pretty much his entire game, which I love. Yeah, I think reckless here and there is a fair assessment. But he doesn't give anything away. Moreno is really good, no doubt. He may be able to neutralize all of Royval's aggression. But I can't argue with anyone taking a shot at Royval here. He's not gonna lose due to lack of activity or due to not going all out, if he loses it's because Moreno was just a bit better.
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KYLE MARLEY'S PICKS AND ANALYSIS (NOT MINE)
Deiveson Figueiredo (-300) vs. Alex Perez (+250): Perez by decision
Figueiredo has always been well-rounded, but he really looks to be in the prime of his career right now as the champion. Perez is well-rounded too, and I think these guys are good enough to fight again no matter who wins. I give the power and grappling to Figueiredo, but I give the volume and wrestling edge to Perez. Figueiredo can always knock anybody out and I think the line is a bit too high because people just saw him get back-to back-knockouts. It could very well happen again but, if it doesn't, I have Perez winning. I don't see Figueiredo winning a decision, so I feel like he needs a knockout or submission. Backing a 70 percent favorite when his best shot at winning is a finish is something I will never do. Give me Perez to mix in takedowns and land more volume on the feet. He could get a finish himself, but I think this one could end up going all five rounds. If that happens, I think Perez gets his hand raised.
Valentina Shevchenko (-1,450) vs. Jennifer Maia (+850): Shevchenko by decision
Shevchenko is one of the best fighters in the world, male or female. She has a big edge anywhere this fight goes, and she can win by knockout, submission or a dominant decision. Maia probably needs something crazy to happen like a lucky knockout, submission, or even an injury or disqualification from Shevchenko to have a chance and I just don't see it. There's no value in the line but Shevchenko is the easy pick.
Mike Perry (-145) vs. Tim Means (+125): Means by submission
Both guys come to scrap, and we could have a Fight of the Night candidate. I favor Perry to get the knockout and I favor Means to get a submission. However, if this fight stays standing, I think it's 50-50, if not a slight lean to Means because of his experience and 4-inch height and reach advantage. I think Means has a real edge on the mat as well, so this line should be flipped. People love knockouts and Perry throws heat, so I think that is why he is favored.
Cynthia Calvillo (-240) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (+200): Calvillo by decision
This is going to be a striker versus grappler fight. Both fighters are well-rounded, but Chookagian gets the edge on the feet and Calvillo gets the edge on the ground. If Calvillo wins, she will be knocking on the door for a title shot. I expect her to look for takedowns early and often and, if she can get the fight to the mat, she should be able to win rounds and perhaps lock up a submission. Chookagian doesn't have knockout power, so it's hard to see her keeping this on the feet long enough to win a decision.
Paul Craig (-165) VS. Mauricio Rua (+145): Craig by submission
This is a rematch from a year ago in which these two fought to a split draw. In that fight, I thought it would be a striker versus grappler matchup, with Rua needing to keep the fight standing to win. However, Craig was winning on the feet and it was top control time from Rua that ended up saving him as a 2-1 favorite. Now, the line is basically flipped and it's hard to disagree. I am not looking to bet Craig at this steep price, but he is going to be the pick.
Brandon Moreno (-185) vs. Brandon Royval (+165): Moreno by decision
This should be a fun fight. Both guys are well-rounded, and this should be a high-paced affair with a good mixture of striking and grappling. Moreno should have the edge in the striking, while the ground game is much closer to even. Moreno looked like he has really improved over the last couple years and he is going to be my pick to win on the scorecards.
Joaquin Buckley (-260) vs. Jordan Wright (+220): Buckley by TKO
Buckley is coming off his Knockout of the Year-worthy performance with a lot more hype behind. Both guys are mainly strikers, but Wright's kicks are the best part of his game and, with Buckley being the shorter guy, he shouldn't be looking to strike at range. Buckley has the better hands and wrestling, and we saw him get a crazy kick KO as well. Usually I look to fade these big favorites with a lot of hype, but I don't think this is the spot to do it because it isn't a knockout-or-bust fight for the favorite.
Antonina Shevchenko (-160) vs. Ariane Lipski (+140): Lipski by decision
This could be a fun, technical striking match. We should get 15 minutes of fight time and, on the feet, it should be close. But the edge should go to Shevchenko. Lipski should have the edge on the ground and there is no reason not to take it there because Shevchenko doesn't have much to offer off her back. I can never back this Shevchenko at favorite odds again, so Lipski will be the pick in a close fight.
Daniel Rodriguez (-330) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+260): Rodriguez by decision
It's hard to disagree with these odds, and the edge should go to Rodriguez anywhere this fight goes. He has solid boxing, and he strikes at a high pace that Dalby might not be able to handle. He has power in his hands and he also has a sneaky grappling game as well. Dalby probably needs a knockout or submission because it will be hard for him to win a decision. But I think Rodriguez is more likely to win by any of those methods and he is the pick.
Alan Jouban (-130) vs. Jared Gooden (+110): Gooden by TKO
Jouban is returning after more than a year and a half off and he is now 38 and welcoming a solid prospect in Gooden to the UFC. Gooden is a solid striker with big power and good wrestling. He has issues being put on his back or against the cage and staying there for too long, but Jouban isn't much of a wrestler because he is more of a striker himself. I think Jouban can have success on the mat if that is in his game plan, but so could Gooden if he gets in top control. I don't think Jouban's chin can hold up over the course of 15 minutes of striking with Gooden. Give me the underdog to land something heavy and put Jouban to sleep.
Kyle Daukaus (-270) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+230): Daukaus by decision
Both guys can strike as but the best part of their games is grappling and submissions. Daukaus looked really good against solid competition in his UFC debut, which is why he is lined so high in this spot. I don't know that it is warranted because Stoltzfus is a really good grappler and he has power on the feet as well. The betting line is likely too high on Daukaus, but he should probably win this fight more times than he loses it.
Louis Cosce (-400) vs. Sasha Palatnikov (+320): Cosce by TKO
Cosce is coming off a knockout win on "Contender Series," where his brother Orion also had a knockout on the same card. The wins moved them both to 7-0, with all wins being finishes and all of Louis' coming in Round 1. They were both supposed to fight on this card, and it looks like the UFC is trying to hype this tandem and get them more wins. Palatnikov is mainly a striker from what I have seen, so this should be a fun fight as long as it lasts -- and it might not last long.
Deiveson Figueiredo (-300) vs. Alex Perez (+250): Perez by decision
Figueiredo has always been well-rounded, but he really looks to be in the prime of his career right now as the champion. Perez is well-rounded too, and I think these guys are good enough to fight again no matter who wins. I give the power and grappling to Figueiredo, but I give the volume and wrestling edge to Perez. Figueiredo can always knock anybody out and I think the line is a bit too high because people just saw him get back-to back-knockouts. It could very well happen again but, if it doesn't, I have Perez winning. I don't see Figueiredo winning a decision, so I feel like he needs a knockout or submission. Backing a 70 percent favorite when his best shot at winning is a finish is something I will never do. Give me Perez to mix in takedowns and land more volume on the feet. He could get a finish himself, but I think this one could end up going all five rounds. If that happens, I think Perez gets his hand raised.
Valentina Shevchenko (-1,450) vs. Jennifer Maia (+850): Shevchenko by decision
Shevchenko is one of the best fighters in the world, male or female. She has a big edge anywhere this fight goes, and she can win by knockout, submission or a dominant decision. Maia probably needs something crazy to happen like a lucky knockout, submission, or even an injury or disqualification from Shevchenko to have a chance and I just don't see it. There's no value in the line but Shevchenko is the easy pick.
Mike Perry (-145) vs. Tim Means (+125): Means by submission
Both guys come to scrap, and we could have a Fight of the Night candidate. I favor Perry to get the knockout and I favor Means to get a submission. However, if this fight stays standing, I think it's 50-50, if not a slight lean to Means because of his experience and 4-inch height and reach advantage. I think Means has a real edge on the mat as well, so this line should be flipped. People love knockouts and Perry throws heat, so I think that is why he is favored.
Cynthia Calvillo (-240) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (+200): Calvillo by decision
This is going to be a striker versus grappler fight. Both fighters are well-rounded, but Chookagian gets the edge on the feet and Calvillo gets the edge on the ground. If Calvillo wins, she will be knocking on the door for a title shot. I expect her to look for takedowns early and often and, if she can get the fight to the mat, she should be able to win rounds and perhaps lock up a submission. Chookagian doesn't have knockout power, so it's hard to see her keeping this on the feet long enough to win a decision.
Paul Craig (-165) VS. Mauricio Rua (+145): Craig by submission
This is a rematch from a year ago in which these two fought to a split draw. In that fight, I thought it would be a striker versus grappler matchup, with Rua needing to keep the fight standing to win. However, Craig was winning on the feet and it was top control time from Rua that ended up saving him as a 2-1 favorite. Now, the line is basically flipped and it's hard to disagree. I am not looking to bet Craig at this steep price, but he is going to be the pick.
Brandon Moreno (-185) vs. Brandon Royval (+165): Moreno by decision
This should be a fun fight. Both guys are well-rounded, and this should be a high-paced affair with a good mixture of striking and grappling. Moreno should have the edge in the striking, while the ground game is much closer to even. Moreno looked like he has really improved over the last couple years and he is going to be my pick to win on the scorecards.
Joaquin Buckley (-260) vs. Jordan Wright (+220): Buckley by TKO
Buckley is coming off his Knockout of the Year-worthy performance with a lot more hype behind. Both guys are mainly strikers, but Wright's kicks are the best part of his game and, with Buckley being the shorter guy, he shouldn't be looking to strike at range. Buckley has the better hands and wrestling, and we saw him get a crazy kick KO as well. Usually I look to fade these big favorites with a lot of hype, but I don't think this is the spot to do it because it isn't a knockout-or-bust fight for the favorite.
Antonina Shevchenko (-160) vs. Ariane Lipski (+140): Lipski by decision
This could be a fun, technical striking match. We should get 15 minutes of fight time and, on the feet, it should be close. But the edge should go to Shevchenko. Lipski should have the edge on the ground and there is no reason not to take it there because Shevchenko doesn't have much to offer off her back. I can never back this Shevchenko at favorite odds again, so Lipski will be the pick in a close fight.
Daniel Rodriguez (-330) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+260): Rodriguez by decision
It's hard to disagree with these odds, and the edge should go to Rodriguez anywhere this fight goes. He has solid boxing, and he strikes at a high pace that Dalby might not be able to handle. He has power in his hands and he also has a sneaky grappling game as well. Dalby probably needs a knockout or submission because it will be hard for him to win a decision. But I think Rodriguez is more likely to win by any of those methods and he is the pick.
Alan Jouban (-130) vs. Jared Gooden (+110): Gooden by TKO
Jouban is returning after more than a year and a half off and he is now 38 and welcoming a solid prospect in Gooden to the UFC. Gooden is a solid striker with big power and good wrestling. He has issues being put on his back or against the cage and staying there for too long, but Jouban isn't much of a wrestler because he is more of a striker himself. I think Jouban can have success on the mat if that is in his game plan, but so could Gooden if he gets in top control. I don't think Jouban's chin can hold up over the course of 15 minutes of striking with Gooden. Give me the underdog to land something heavy and put Jouban to sleep.
Kyle Daukaus (-270) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+230): Daukaus by decision
Both guys can strike as but the best part of their games is grappling and submissions. Daukaus looked really good against solid competition in his UFC debut, which is why he is lined so high in this spot. I don't know that it is warranted because Stoltzfus is a really good grappler and he has power on the feet as well. The betting line is likely too high on Daukaus, but he should probably win this fight more times than he loses it.
Louis Cosce (-400) vs. Sasha Palatnikov (+320): Cosce by TKO
Cosce is coming off a knockout win on "Contender Series," where his brother Orion also had a knockout on the same card. The wins moved them both to 7-0, with all wins being finishes and all of Louis' coming in Round 1. They were both supposed to fight on this card, and it looks like the UFC is trying to hype this tandem and get them more wins. Palatnikov is mainly a striker from what I have seen, so this should be a fun fight as long as it lasts -- and it might not last long.
I think Moreno is a great fighter and should be near a title shot. But in fairness, beating Kai and drawing with Askarov were his best accomplishments before the Formiga fight, which is nothing crazy and not that much different than Royval's position rn (albeit with more experience). I still remember Moreno closing as a sizable favorite against Sergio and getting picked apart that fight.
