UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez

Captain Chesapeake said:
Chook at +175 seems lime a no brainer. Recency bias for sure

I’ll also take Perez at these odds

Little schev at -140.
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Yeah I also like Chook in this one, Cynthia's usual advantage is her BJJ and Chook has been training with Danaher for years. I don't think it's competitive on the feet.
 
Invictis said:
Liking Perry at this spot. Despite his antics, he has spectacular cardio, power, and can probably take Tim means down if he wants to.

I think Perry is gonna be bigger and stronger and just too in his face.
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Perry's striking looked like it had regressed a ton against Mickey Gall, although that was a full camp with his girlfriend as head coach, so who knows.
 
Hellowhosthat said:
Yeah I also like Chook in this one, Cynthia's usual advantage is her BJJ and Chook has been training with Danaher for years. I don't think it's competitive on the feet.
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Training with Danaher doesn't automatically mean good BJJ, Chookagian's BJJ is actually pretty shit. She had Anotnina flattened out & backmounted for most of the fight and couldn't finish her even though she wasn't doing anything to defend other than tucking her chin, any half decent grappler would've finished that fight within a minute given the same position. There's a reason she has no submission finishes in her entire UFC career.

The rest I agree with, Chookagian's standup isn't anything to write home about but it's good enough to take care of Cynthia. Should be able to out-volume her without too much trouble even if 3/4 of the strikes miss and it doesn't leave a single scratch on her.
 
Just played Royval +160, so him and Chook +210 are my only plays so far.

Need to watch more tape on Lipski, initial read was that she wins.
 
Managed to get 1U on Chook @ +220.

I'm assuming recency bias. Cynthia can certainly win but I don't think Chook should be such a dog.

Only thing that really concerns me is I dislike betting fighters coming off of a loss in a title fight. I'm not sure if it's still the same but I remember a few years ago looking into it and the vast majority would go on to lose their immediate fighter afterwards.

It could be different now, or just some random pattern I noticed years ago, but two recent examples that immediately spring to mind are Santos and Reyes.

That said +220 for this match up in a women's fight that likely goes to a decision with a clear path to victory I'm happy with the bet.
 
Dooze said:
Managed to get 1U on Chook @ +220.

I'm assuming recency bias. Cynthia can certainly win but I don't think Chook should be such a dog.

Only thing that really concerns me is I dislike betting fighters coming off of a loss in a title fight. I'm not sure if it's still the same but I remember a few years ago looking into it and the vast majority would go on to lose their immediate fighter afterwards.

It could be different now, or just some random pattern I noticed years ago, but two recent examples that immediately spring to mind are Santos and Reyes.

That said +220 for this match up in a women's fight that likely goes to a decision with a clear path to victory I'm happy with the bet.
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That title-fight hangover angle is legit, but thankfully Chookagian already got that out of the way by beating the Champ’s sister then getting finished via body shot a few weeks back to Andrade.

I can understand a slight lean towards Calvillo but this line is insane. It should be much closer to even money and I like that Chookagian called Calvillo out after Cynthia beat Eye in her 125 lbs debut. If the takedowns don’t come Cynthia is pretty likely to dump a 29-28 IMO. Definite recency bias here. I’m all over this line.
 
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People I pay attention to seem to be judging the Buckley/Wright fight based on standup.. meanwhile, Wright has a quick entry and good takedown to bjj control..

For a guy who swings in bunches and is open to be ducked and grabbed, Buckley got that very treatment by Logan Storley in Bellator 2 years ago

All I care about this fight, does Buckley work on grappling or neglect it.. because Wright and his coaches are smart, and the gameplan should be a ground fight
 
Fight DNGTD between Craig/Shogun seems very juicy at 2.5 (+150). Even though it went to a decision last time I still expected this to be slightly odds on. At the very least I'd expect this line to come in a bit by fight night.
 
Invictis said:
Just played Royval +160, so him and Chook +210 are my only plays so far.

Need to watch more tape on Lipski, initial read was that she wins.
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Man I tend to agree w lots of your plays, and I absolutely love Chook +2xx. But I think Royval is super gimmicky and is ready to get exposed. He gets away w crazy shit bc he’s at 125. He’s super reckless standing just to set up his bjj, but he’s gonna pay for that big time eventually imo. Admittedly I lost my ass on KKF against him and I’m stubborn. But Moreno -175 is my favorite play on this card. Fwiw. Gl.
 
Ryan Kelly said:
Man I tend to agree w lots of your plays, and I absolutely love Chook +2xx. But I think Royval is super gimmicky and is ready to get exposed. He gets away w crazy shit bc he’s at 125. He’s super reckless standing just to set up his bjj, but he’s gonna pay for that big time eventually imo. Admittedly I lost my ass on KKF against him and I’m stubborn. But Moreno -175 is my favorite play on this card. Fwiw. Gl.
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I think his ceiling is higher than Moreno's. I think we've seen the best Moreno we'll ever see in the octagon in his past few fights, and Royval is just going to get better and better.

They're literally so similar at so many different parts of the game, I think it should be closer to a pick'em. Royval is tough as nails and will fight for my money(not saying Moreno wont), but I think it'll be a close fight with Royval getting a decision surprisingly.
 
aerius said:
Training with Danaher doesn't automatically mean good BJJ, Chookagian's BJJ is actually pretty shit. She had Anotnina flattened out & backmounted for most of the fight and couldn't finish her even though she wasn't doing anything to defend other than tucking her chin, any half decent grappler would've finished that fight within a minute given the same position. There's a reason she has no submission finishes in her entire UFC career.
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Not having submission wins doesn’t equal shit BJJ, either. I think you offered a good, different angle here but went overboard :rolleyes:

There’s a ton more to BJJ than submissions. Chook’a game isn’t sub focused and I think it’s true that she’s not good at finishing anyone, standing or on the ground.

Working with Danaher and co has helped her game a lot, for sure. Being aware of positions and dangers at all times, having control (position over submission) and having defensive answers to the moves your opponent makes.

As many posters here I agree that Chook here is a solid bet. Her odds are great at the moment, recency bias for sure. I like the match up even if it’s very likely we’ll need to watch this for 15 minutes.
 
Valentina vs maia to go the distance at +280
Lipski +232
Rua + 243
Perry ko +288
 
Broe. said:
you mean everything -100 I guess? LIpski is +140 now and Rua +150
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I'm an Aussie so our betting sites are different so get Abit confused when trying to write them down the american way.

Just a 50 dollar multi to win $2715 will do single bets after weigh ins
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Been keeping a close eye on the Moreno line. I figured money would come in on Royval. I think Moreno has consistently shown improvements from fight to fight. I think Royval will try to brawl and Moreno will be too quick cutting angles. We also saw Moreno's grappling has been improving drastically too, so I think he can avoid a sub if it does hit the ground. I also question if Royval can hold the pace that Moreno will bring.
 
I took some Cosce rd1 +188. No reason he shouldn't keep his streak going.

Also I don't see things ending well for Wright, his hands down back up in a straight line 'poor mans Machida style' is tailor made for a Buckley combo.
 
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