Revisiting GM3 vs. Ian “Ya ever been to Rikers?” Heinsich.
I kind of simplified the fight too much and leaned Heinsich because of his pace and wrestling. But as others have mentioned, Heinsich has contender level series technique with the heart and determination of a Spike Carlyle. There would have to be something wrong with GM3 such as him fighting Ian’s fight and trying to sloppily take down Ian, for him to “lose” the fight. The problem with GM3 is that unless he subs his opponents, the fights are always close. I believe he edged out many of the people he split decisioned, but at the same time you can make an argument for the other side...
A lot of people talk too much about scrambling because they interpret that as any sort of grappling. GM3 is the much more competent grappler here and I see him using solid base line defense against Heinsich. Really making him work for the takedown and potentially win rounds by advancing on Heinsich or attacking submissions. Heinsich supposedly had mono or whatever in the Akhmedov fight, but he looked very dull in the octagon against Derek Brunson (who I consider solid, but he is your typical top 10 GK that you have to soundly beat if you want to be in the top 10).
I do like GM3, but I wouldn’t bet on him because he always keeps fights close and I doubt he will easily dominate to a 30-27... you can guarantee that GM3 will put on a 29-28 esque performance and with the judging these days, you’re really gambling once it hits the scorecards.
This, and the Aljo vs Sandhagen fight should be avoided betting on unless for entertainment or if you’re looking for props. I’d say the value is on GM3 via decision, because to “lose” he would have to fight Ian’s fight.
Also, I was on Formiga and I will be taking that back as well. The lighter weights rely on speed and athleticism and in the Moreno fight he looked very flat on the feet and on the ground. Moreno pretty much “out athleted” Formiga by just muscling out of any attempts to hold him down. I mentioned that Moreno was on roids lol, but the more likely situation is that Formiga has experienced that drop off. I can’t say much about Perez because I can’t really gauge how good he is, but I can’t be backing older flyweights against a younger, fresher, and experienced guy. Perez by decision is the value line here.
Aljo vs Sandhagen... I have a weird feeling that this fight ends in the distance. These guys are both aggro on the feet and I do believe that Sterling’s takedowns are overrated. I believe that Sandhagen is too good at reading range that he will fall for a naked takedown attempt from sterling. Especially with the whole covid thing, I don’t think Sterling has been sharpening that wrestling very much. Meanwhile, team elevation guys have been on an absolute tear and they have been doing things right. I think everyone can agree that Sandhagen is the better striker, and the smaller cage will only benefit the guy who knows how to use range more efficiently... Also, Sterling was getting lit up by kicks from Pedro Munhoz who is not really known for his kicking? It was a clean decision win for sterling, but he had trouble with the kicks for sure. Sandhagen NSC @ -110 or Sandhagen via decision. But this fight is tough to call at the end of the day, if Aljo really is in his “prime” Sandhagen could lose to a split decision or be out of his element. I can’t imagine anyone laying serious money on This fight, probably the toughest fight to predict with confidence in this entire card.
