UFC 250 Official Bets

Once Hooper was bet by every man and his dog I knew hed lose. I try not to be contrarian for the sake of it but you really cant side with the public. Lost on him and Byrd

Cody i was pretty confident in but didnt bet enough so winning almost feels like a loss. Lost overall on this card but not much. Been lazy posting pre event picks, need to get back to that. Onto next week! Congrats all winners
 
Sandhagen at 2.00 for 1 unit
Hooper at 1.85 for 1 unit
Magny at 1.67 for 1 unit
Meerschaert at 2.05 for 1 unit
Assuncao at 2.10 for 1 unit

Byrd by KO/TKO at 6.50 for 0.25 unit
Hooper by KO/TKO at 10.00 for 0.25 unit
Assuncao by submission at 11.00 for 0.25 unit

Byrd/Pitolo under 2.5 rounds at 1.85 for 1 unit


Shit from all directions.

I need to switch things up
 
Eh, don't beat yourself up about Hooper. (Or anyone else who bet him, for that matter)

We saw a jits guy with shaky takedowns and limited striking/defense beat Caceres as easily as spitting on his fingers just 16 months ago. Yes yes, Kron Gracie is much better at BJJ than Hooper, but his GNP is actually worse, and besides, Steven Peterson is worse at BJJ than Kron AND Hooper...and he got Caceres down, took his back, and very nearly locked in the RNC less than a year ago.

Recall that people were happy to play Kron at -300, which also looked great in retrospect, so was Hooper at around -150 really THAT bad?

This isn't even accounting for Hooper having 6 months to improve at an age where fighters become better by leaps and bounds, the major advantage of a smaller cage limiting Caceres' evasion and forcing more clinches, and Caceres' generally awful fight IQ combined with his complete lack of improvement over years and years.

Caceres' strategy was to constantly move and evade, make it difficult for Hooper to even grab him, and disengage from any and all grappling situations like the plague. Amazingly, he stuck to this the whole fight without faltering.

Caceres also showed far more grappling improvements since the Peterson fight 10.5 months ago than he has shown in years before that. Hooper, meanwhile, showed zero grappling improvement.

It's important not to be too results-oriented here.
Agree with the importance of not being too results-oriented.

However, I feel like you're sort of only telling half the story. There was good reason to expect this to be very different from Kron. Kron is insanely strong and was able to muscle Caceres to the fence before getting the takedown. Peterson was having a difficult time getting a hold of him, and the way I saw it, really only succeeded after getting him worrying about his hands (not an issue with Hooper). Hooper is a noodle and has really had trouble taking anybody down. Teymur engaged in his guard time and time again, and Luis Gomez actually took Hooper down before getting reversed and finished.
 
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Terrible picks can be more rough than money won or lost sometimes. As someone who also picked Byrd and Hooper, I'm kind of struggling to come to terms with such shit picks.
At least you have the right mind set. Capper have to recognize bad pick and robbery win to improve. I do most of the work after the event is over, goes thru my terrible pick. This is a cruel hobby, I don't known how DevilsAvocodo feel having 6g+ usd watching Woodley back into the fence with no volume. You just want to scream at the TV, take a f*cking chance! I punished myself if I make a terrible pick, I will watch few time why the fight didn't play out the way I think it should play out.

I swear I put more time into research than a full time job, people don't see the work behind a person who gamble for living. I not saying I am a big success but lot of work need to be put in. You have to known the fighter like he/she is your sparring partner, how the fighter approach this up coming fight. It is not possible for everyone to put in ton of work and be all winner, it is a competition among our-self and only few (maybe 5% ish) will come out ahead in a long run.
 
Terrible picks can be more rough than money won or lost sometimes. As someone who also picked Byrd and Hooper, I'm kind of struggling to come to terms with such shit picks.

Byrd is such a flake, had some decent money on him and dude straight up retires from the sport after quitting again when the fight got hard lmao
 
I'll be glad when we have another card not at the Apex. Not much for prebets but I'll probably be looking at Clark and maybe Assuncao live.

●Nunes -5 1/2 / O'malley -3 1/2
3u for 2.25u

●Hooper+ Burns+ Martin +3 1/2
2.5u for 5.25u
●Nunes -5 1/2 / O'malley -3 1/2
3u for 2.25u
●Hooper+ Burns+ Martin +3 1/2
2.5u for 5.25u

Prebets -.25
Had a solid read on Sterling but I didn't do anything with it. Feeling a little burned out, I may skip this next garbage card.
 
Cody Garbrandt by decision at +285

Cory Sandhagen +100

Charles Byrd -175

GM3/Heinisch starts round 3 @ -240

Formiga/Perez goes the distance @-180

Magny/Martin goes the distance @-185

ALL LOCKS
These posts always age well
 
I finally hit a no chance in hell lottery ticket/ parlay
Garbrandt
Clark
Pitolo
Magny
Sterling
Omalley
Cacceres
Stamman

10 to win 1600 as soon as I figure out how to post it on here I will Puerto Rican said I have to turn the pick into a url or some shit idk how to do that
 
I finally hit a no chance in hell lottery ticket/ parlay
Garbrandt
Clark
Pitolo
Magny
Sterling
Omalley
Cacceres
Stamman

10 to win 1600 as soon as I figure out how to post it on here I will Puerto Rican said I have to turn the pick into a url or some shit idk how to do that

Nah you don't have to do that. Use the snipping tool app. You can just make a snip of the bet then copy/paste it right into a post.

Edit: But congrats man, that's awesome you hit that!
 
102895323_1404507396401887_6046891060956130968_n.png



This is the best I can do ill try and figure it out better but theres the proof lol or somewhat
 
Didn’t post but had a nice bounce back from the disaster that was the last few events

Sh $600/$90 nunes -690
$220/$66 Nunes by tko or dec -333
$652.94/$195.88 Nunes by tko or dec -333
$312.72/$78.18 Nunes by ko tko or dec -400

$55/$51.18
Cody -155
Not sandhagen by finish

$120/$100 Cody by tko or dec -120
Clark goes to dec +300 $66/$198

+$779
 
Eh, don't beat yourself up about Hooper. (Or anyone else who bet him, for that matter)

We saw a jits guy with shaky takedowns and limited striking/defense beat Caceres as easily as spitting on his fingers just 16 months ago. Yes yes, Kron Gracie is much better at BJJ than Hooper, but his GNP is actually worse, and besides, Steven Peterson is worse at BJJ than Kron AND Hooper...and he got Caceres down, took his back, and very nearly locked in the RNC less than a year ago.

Recall that people were happy to play Kron at -300, which also looked great in retrospect, so was Hooper at around -150 really THAT bad?

This isn't even accounting for Hooper having 6 months to improve at an age where fighters become better by leaps and bounds, the major advantage of a smaller cage limiting Caceres' evasion and forcing more clinches, and Caceres' generally awful fight IQ combined with his complete lack of improvement over years and years.

Caceres' strategy was to constantly move and evade, make it difficult for Hooper to even grab him, and disengage from any and all grappling situations like the plague. Amazingly, he stuck to this the whole fight without faltering.

Caceres also showed far more grappling improvements since the Peterson fight 10.5 months ago than he has shown in years before that. Hooper, meanwhile, showed zero grappling improvement.

It's important not to be too results-oriented here.
not to after time but I don't think it's a good idea to compare kron or peterson to hooper with their grappling. There is 1 giant thing you didn't mention in your post and tht is that despite his good bjj hooper is very weak physically. He knows his striking is miles behind where it needs to be and he mentioned that he was working his wrestling a lot lately as it made more sense to improve his chances of taking the fight where he can win.
 
Agree with the importance of not being too results-oriented.

However, I feel like you're sort of only telling half the story. There was good reason to expect this to be very different from Kron. Kron is insanely strong and was able to muscle Caceres to the fence before getting the takedown. Peterson was having a difficult time getting a hold of him, and the way I saw it, really only succeeded after getting him worrying about his hands (not an issue with Hooper). Hooper is a noodle and has really had trouble taking anybody down. Teymur engaged in his guard time and time again, and Luis Gomez actually took Hooper down before getting reversed and finished.

not to after time but I don't think it's a good idea to compare kron or peterson to hooper with their grappling. There is 1 giant thing you didn't mention in your post and tht is that despite his good bjj hooper is very weak physically. He knows his striking is miles behind where it needs to be and he mentioned that he was working his wrestling a lot lately as it made more sense to improve his chances of taking the fight where he can win.

Both of these posts, while well-meaning, suffer from hindsight bias. To begin with, Hooper isn't nearly as weak as he looks. He managed to physically dominate both Luis Gomez (not a bad fighter) and David Teymur. Neither of these guys are obviously weak. In fact, someone betting against Hooper due to perceived physical failings in those instances would have looked mighty foolish afterwards.

Nevermind that Hooper has added notable amounts of mass and muscle in every new fight I have seen him in. Or that we have seen similarly tall, scrawny-looking grapplers have considerable success muscling opponents around. (Violent Bob Ross and Zabit nowadays, Shinya Aoki back in the day)

It's also completely ignoring all the technical things Alex Caceres did to avoid Hooper, which he didn't do in the Kron fight, and that aren't directly tied to strength. Or that Kron is not a particularly good wrestler nor does he come anywhere close to overpowering opponents. Or that Steven Peterson is actually fairly weak in terms of grappling, too, but got Caceres in very advantageous positions.
 
At least you have the right mind set. Capper have to recognize bad pick and robbery win to improve. I do most of the work after the event is over, goes thru my terrible pick. This is a cruel hobby, I don't known how DevilsAvocodo feel having 6g+ usd watching Woodley back into the fence with no volume. You just want to scream at the TV, take a f*cking chance! I punished myself if I make a terrible pick, I will watch few time why the fight didn't play out the way I think it should play out.

Perhaps this approach works for you, but personally, despite how much I'm always looking to improve my analysis and understanding of the sport, I never get down on myself much for failed bets nowadays.

Oftentimes, a losing bet is actually very good and a winning bet is very dumb. I always use the example of me betting Drakkar Klose at something like -240 against Bobby Green. It won, and do actually think Klose won 2 out of 3 rounds, but man, that was a dumb, anti-value play in retrospect.

Meanwhile, I might have lost playing Reyes at +400 against Jon Jones due to the judging robbery, but I daresay that was an excellent bet, even factoring in the possibility of a robbery.

I watch fights where I lost no more and no less than ones where I won. And when I analyze a fight I lost a lot of money on, I don't have any negative emotions. It's just more data to examine and learn from.
 
Hes a prick, and considering what he says about his background / his life it's even more disgusting how he treats people. Funny shit because me and him went at eachother this week too and I also hit a nice fucking parlay

usually people who are like that especially on a fucking message board is exactly what I said he was in the comment I made about him hes such a prick and belittles everyone but someone who I actucally respect Said I am disgusting or something like that for saying what I said but he constantly comes on here and belittles everyone but hes not?
 
Both of these posts, while well-meaning, suffer from hindsight bias. To begin with, Hooper isn't nearly as weak as he looks. He managed to physically dominate both Luis Gomez (not a bad fighter) and David Teymur. Neither of these guys are obviously weak. In fact, someone betting against Hooper due to perceived physical failings in those instances would have looked mighty foolish afterwards.

Nevermind that Hooper has added notable amounts of mass and muscle in every new fight I have seen him in. Or that we have seen similarly tall, scrawny-looking grapplers have considerable success muscling opponents around. (Violent Bob Ross and Zabit nowadays, Shinya Aoki back in the day)

It's also completely ignoring all the technical things Alex Caceres did to avoid Hooper, which he didn't do in the Kron fight, and that aren't directly tied to strength. Or that Kron is not a particularly good wrestler nor does he come anywhere close to overpowering opponents. Or that Steven Peterson is actually fairly weak in terms of grappling, too, but got Caceres in very advantageous positions.
I really thought there were enough question marks concerning Hooper's ability to force grappling exchanges to warrant fading him as a moderate favorite, even against Caceres. But you certainly have more technical knowledge than I do, and I have the impression you study tape diligently, so you may well be right.
 
1u ($10)on Kelleher @ +195 LOSE
1u ($10) on Kelleher @ +230 LOSE
1u ($10) on Hooper @ -140 LOSE
2u ($20) on Hooper @-150 LOSE
1u ($10) on Sandhgen @-115 LOSE
1/2u ($5) on Spencer @ +415 LOSE
1/2u ($5) on Spencer @ +385 LOSE
1/2u ($5) on Sandhagen + Hooper LOSE

1/4u ($2.5) to win $387 SPENCER +385 +
GARBRANDT -145 + HEINISCH -125 + SANDHAGEN -115 + O'MALLEY -425 + HOOPER -145 + KELLEHER +195

probably going to put a unit on Magny after I watch some more tape of him and Rocco
My bookie is offering a free bet up fo $50 on the Magny vs Martin fight so I’m throwing 5u on Martin.

I forgot to place my 5u bet on Martin and I'm glad I did.
Terrible, terrible card for me. I'm rock climbing at Joshua tree this weekend so I couldn't do any live betting.
-7u overall. Onto the next one.

The only play I regret is Sandhagen. I had a feeling his TDD would be his downfall. He threw a similar sloppy kick at the end of round 3 vs Lineker which resulted in him almost getting guillotined. Sometimes, it's those small clues that tell the story. I still think Aljo loses to Moraes or Cejudo if he returns. I got him beating Yan and pretty much everyone else except for Cody. Cody is too fast and I think with the proper camp sleeps Aljo. Great win for Sterling however and impressed the shit out of me. Hope he's on standby for Aldo vs Yan just in case.
 
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