UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

SolarSeiko said:
You guys excited or what?? Holay fuck it has been a long time here. I was declared an essential worker since the start and have been betting on dumb ass sports like NKA 2K simulations, russian table tennis, dog races and random euro hockey games while at work. I cannot wait to lose money on a real sport tonight.
Click to expand...

let’s gooooo but I want to win $ haha
 
The only card I was more excited recently was 229. My early prelims start at 1am, so I will most likely set up my alarm for the main card and watch the prelims in between.
One thing I noticed from the last card in Brasilia that does not seem to get factored is that the decisions were on point. The empty arena seems to have good effect on the judges.
 
Jordan3399 said:
There is probably value on the line. GTD and overs like that are generally value.

We've seen plenty of supposed lock FDGTD bets and overs fail hard before. Can see this one going 5 rounds for the reasons you said. Everyones basically counting on Gaethje gassing hard and panic wrestling late.
Click to expand...
Gaethje himself said he has 18 mins in him. He knows he's toast in 2nd half of fight.
 
Justin says he has 18 minuets but he let's always gassed after a round, he doesn't quit he just slows down significantly
 
TheFightGame said:
I understand Tony's pace is the best in MMA but why are people treating gaethje like he isn't as durable as anyone Tony has fought?

Also can someone explain live betting to me and where to do it ? Are odds updated on a minute by minute basis, round by round basis ? etc
Click to expand...

The thing about Tony's pace is that it comes with a heaping helping of damage too. This isn't Nate Diaz pushing a hard pace but throwing pitter patter shots that add up but don't do a ton of damage.

The last 7 consecutive opponents of Ferguson:

upload_2020-5-9_15-8-55.jpeg

^^^That's not pace alone. People say Tony doesn't have huge power and maybe he doesn't have that one shot kill power like Justin, but he has power that makes guys want to quit.

Justin IS pretty durable, but he has an average gas tank (not awful, but not great). You can't survive against Tony's combination of pace and damage unless you have something left in the tank as the fight wears on. Because he's not only putting a lot of volume on you, he's ruining your face as he does it. RDA had the right combination of durability and cardio to survive, although he was getting pieced up badly rds 4 and 5. Justin has the durability, but likely not the cardio to do it.

Justin needs a relatively early finish or is extremely likely he gets finished mid to late.
 
2020Tracked said:
Justin says he has 18 minuets but he let's always gassed after a round, he doesn't quit he just slows down significantly
Click to expand...
You're right, he's never mentally quit. His body quits on him after absorbing absurd amounts of damage, and in a short camp his body will quit on him vs Tony once he's slice and diced.
 
Probs going a big multi-bet of:

SPann to win.

Mitchell to Win

Luque to win.

Werdum to win.

Carla to win (maybe. Not too sure about this one.)

Francis to win.

It pays like 4.60

but if I add Gathje to win, it's 12.90. Going to be betting 2k today because I want to try and make up for all these weeks without getting paid from UFC gambling.

I may end up losing my nerve and dropping it down to just Spann, Mitchell and Werdum though, coz I'm scared like that.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
You're right, he's never mentally quit. His body quits on him after absorbing absurd amounts of damage, and in a short camp his body will quit on him vs Tony once he's slice and diced.
Click to expand...

I agree, those front kicks to the body will quickly add up and he'll gas even faster
 
is Gaethje vs Ferguson 5 rounds?
I believe Gatehje said something about he would only agree to a 3 round fight on short notice.
I am currently not up to date at all though, can somebody please confirm?
 
Vendettax said:
Is anyone on Price?
Click to expand...

I am. Luque has always been a betting favorite of mine too. I think it's a closer fight than people are giving Niko credit for just because he lost a few years back.

He's not a lock but I think he has better chances than the odds.
 
2bet said:
is Gaethje vs Ferguson 5 rounds?
I believe Gatehje said something about he would only agree to a 3 round fight on short notice.
I am currently not up to date at all though, can somebody please confirm?
Click to expand...
Yes it's 5 rounds. He can't say no to interim belt and chance to face khabib after.
 
Are the prelims/early prelims on fight pass or Espn+? Or is the whole card ppv?
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Gaethje himself said he has 18 mins in him. He knows he's toast in 2nd half of fight.
Click to expand...
He said that when it was booked the first time round for April 18th and he wasn't coming in with a full camp. Even if he's gassed by the end of R4 thats only 1 round for Tony to find a finish.
 
Jordan3399 said:
He said that when it was booked the first time round for April 18th and he wasn't coming in with a full camp. Even if he's gassed by the end of R4 thats only 1 round for Tony to find a finish.
Click to expand...

At Tony's pace, even with a full camp, expecting more than 15-17 minutes from Gaethje before it becomes target practice for Tony might be unrealisitc.

That of course is with the caveat that we never know how fights will play out. It's hard to imagine that after rd 1 Tony won't ramp up the pressure a ton and force Justin to fight at that pace. There's risk in that of course, because if Tony walks into a bomb it could all become moot. But Tony just doesn't let guys pace themselves. You don't have a choice but to expend energy to match what he's doing.
 
mkess101 said:
At Tony's pace, even with a full camp, expecting more than 15-17 minutes from Gaethje before it becomes target practice for Tony might be unrealisitc.

That of course is with the caveat that we never know how fights will play out. It's hard to imagine that after rd 1 Tony won't ramp up the pressure a ton and force Justin to fight at that pace. There's risk in that of course, because if Tony walks into a bomb it could all become moot. But Tony just doesn't let guys pace themselves. You don't have a choice but to expend energy to match what he's doing.
Click to expand...
For sure, I definitely don't think Gaethje can hang for 25 minutes comfortably, but I do think he's got the toughness and enough cardio that I don't think it's crazy to think he could survive that long at a rate thats higher than the current line suggests.
 
If Gaethje establishes leg kicks, the fight is his. If he just plows forward with no regard which I don’t think he will, he’s gonna get tired and lose.

The leg kicks neutralize everything else if they land.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,236,651
Messages
55,432,163
Members
174,775
Latest member
kilgorevontrouty

Share this page

Back
Top