UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

[benebox]

Cerrone will use his wrestling this time

 

[mkess101]

Watching the countdown show right now and the scroll said "UFC given clearance to run the event despite positive Covid test".

Not gonna lie...I was a little nervous that somehow this would get scrapped last minute. I feel way better waking up and seeing that.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

PPV thoughts:

Tony/Justin — Even match up in the first two rounds and Tony’s fight late. Might even favor Justin early. Live bet opportunity. Really hope tony pulls through.

cejudo/Cruz — Gonna go with the over here. Also got plays on each guy’s split decision lines. Interesting to see how Cruz wrestling is utilized here. Cejudo brick wall.

rozen/Francis — it’s HW. Anything can happen. Gonna play the dog for dog odds at +240 and also Not Ngannou 1st round -190. Francis IMO is a very patient fighter but people are scared shitless of him and make mistakes against him. Rozen is not scared.

Jeremy/Kattar — puncher vs boxer, I’m gonna go with the boxer however, price is too wide. Should be -200 Kattar.

Hardy/castro — gonna go with o1.5 cuz Castro isn’t a guy that’s gonna turtle up like a few of Hardy’s recent hoe ass opponents.

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Prelim thoughts:

Pettis/Cowboy — doubt cowboy has been training at all. He’s getting up off the couch is my speculation. Hate betting on ‘who is more worn out’ but I’m gonna go with Pettis for the possible finish. Cowboy is now a turtle and waits for ref to step in.

Werdum/Oleinik — gonna go with o1.5 but could expect a late finish or decision from Werdum. Alexey does duck head a lot and Werdum could knee or kick up middle.

Carla/waterson — expecting Carla to hold wrestling advantage so Carla decision

Luque/Price — Luque finishes again but a bit concerning that Perry was so competitive with Luque and the damage meter.

Rosa/Mitch — prob o2.5 as both guys are good grapplers with limited striking

alvey/span — prob span but -420 is a no no. Span still has chin issues and seems to not move his head much.

 

[clemente]

Wtf Luque vs Price have already fought before lol. I think Price has been improving while Luque has been disappointing lately.
Just noticed that Pinnacle will finally have live bets

 

[TheFightGame]

Ferguson and Gaethje going the distance is an interesting proposition. Ferguson doesn't have power in his hands and gaethje is durable. On the other end Gaethje has power in his hands but it's a little overrated, and Fergusons recovery is almost too good for him to be tko'd. The threat of Tony darce chokes is scary but I think it just ends up being a five round war where Tony comes out on top.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Ferguson and Gaethje going the distance is an interesting proposition. Ferguson doesn't have power in his hands and gaethje is durable. On the other end Gaethje has power in his hands but it's a little overrated, and Fergusons recovery is almost too good for him to be tko'd. The threat of Tony darce chokes is scary but I think it just ends up being a five round war where Tony comes out on top.

There is no way in hell Justin survives 5 rounds with Tony's pace. Justin KO's Tony dead early or gets TKO'd himself in rounds 2-4

 

[SolarSeiko]

You guys excited or what?? Holay fuck it has been a long time here. I was declared an essential worker since the start and have been betting on dumb ass sports like NKA 2K simulations, russian table tennis, dog races and random euro hockey games while at work. I cannot wait to lose money on a real sport tonight.

 

[Martialbeef]

Looks like we are in the clear then. Hall Jacare bets got voided so I’ll probably just livebet with the funds

 

[Captain Crunch28]

There is no way in hell Justin survives 5 rounds with Tony's pace. Justin KO's Tony dead early or gets TKO'd himself in rounds 2-4

This

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Ok guys, all bets placed.

Parlays with
Bryce
Spann
Calvin
Cejudo
Pettis(small)

Underdog bets
Gaethie
Waterson
Rozenstriuk
Price (small)
Alexey Oleynik (small)


Wish you luck guys

 

[Sono07]

You guys excited or what?? Holay fuck it has been a long time here. I was declared an essential worker since the start and have been betting on dumb ass sports like NKA 2K simulations, russian table tennis, dog races and random euro hockey games while at work. I cannot wait to lose money on a real sport tonight.

"Itsss almost time!"




Ready to inject 249 into my eyeballs.

 

[TheFightGame]

There is no way in hell Justin survives 5 rounds with Tony's pace. Justin KO's Tony dead early or gets TKO'd himself in rounds 2-4

I understand Tony's pace is the best in MMA but why are people treating gaethje like he isn't as durable as anyone Tony has fought?

Also can someone explain live betting to me and where to do it ? Are odds updated on a minute by minute basis, round by round basis ? etc

 

[2020Tracked]

Ferguson doesn't have power in his hands but he is a finisher.. Also, he does have power in his hands, shut up

 

[Brockstar]

You guys excited or what?? Holay fuck it has been a long time here. I was declared an essential worker since the start and have been betting on dumb ass sports like NKA 2K simulations, russian table tennis, dog races and random euro hockey games while at work. I cannot wait to lose money on a real sport tonight.

I watched some table tennis on B365. It’s actually alright.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

*Inhales* ah its fight day. I can't wait to have kids do menial tasks while I take my 15th "shit" of the day or go hide in a closet.

 

[2020Tracked]

Just lol at Cowboy's wrestling being his path, no, Cowboy's wrestling is not good

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Just lol at Cowboy's wrestling being his path, no, Cowboy's wrestling is not good

Pettis has worst tdd in whole ufc

 

[Jordan3399]

Ferguson and Gaethje going the distance is an interesting proposition. Ferguson doesn't have power in his hands and gaethje is durable. On the other end Gaethje has power in his hands but it's a little overrated, and Fergusons recovery is almost too good for him to be tko'd. The threat of Tony darce chokes is scary but I think it just ends up being a five round war where Tony comes out on top.

There is probably value on the line. GTD and overs like that are generally value.

We've seen plenty of supposed lock FDGTD bets and overs fail hard before. Can see this one going 5 rounds for the reasons you said. Everyones basically counting on Gaethje gassing hard and panic wrestling late.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

There is probably value on the line. GTD and overs like that are generally value.

We've seen plenty of supposed lock FDGTD bets and overs fail hard before. Can see this one going 5 rounds for the reasons you said. Everyones basically counting on Gaethje gassing hard and panic wrestling late.

To both of you, excellent points. Perhaps a decent chance of the stoppage would be a cut though, that could be very likely...doctor stoppages is a thing to factor in with those elbows, but good points, people make it sound way to simple often with how if this doesn’t happen then clearly this or that will happen. Yeah lots of value on those fights that are “easy free money” just like all the heavyweights going the distance at odds 4-5.00 often.